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There are probably 10 things off the top of my head that I can think of that are more important to a successful retirement, financially, than the 4% rule of thumb.
Please let us know what those things are. They must be spectacular if they are more important than establishing a SWR and understanding all the parameters are investment allocations involved.
I can’t believe this topic got 160 posts. It’s been done like 100 times! And there was nothing remotely new here, and not many new people in the thread either. Everybody that knows anything about it, talks about, but no one basically follows it. It is the most general rule of thumb there is. Especially since “success” simply means not running out of money. So a couple that dies with $1.98 left is successful. And so is a couple with $1.98 million. How freaking general is that?
There are probably 10 things off the top of my head that I can think of that are more important to a successful retirement, financially, than the 4% rule of thumb.
Good thing we have the forum police to tell us how many times it has been discussed. Why jump in if not going to add something useful - do you not know how to ignore a topic? Wasn't the whole point of this thread that the 4% rule was in doubt?
I would also not define success like you would - fretting because less than $2 in savings so if lived another week, I and my spouse can not afford anything but the poor house might kill me. I would be good with wife still in good shape and kids getting $2M.
Have ya'll factored in near term human extinction due to dramatic warming of the planet and loss of habitat for all species? Some studies indicate we may be gone by 2024.
If we're all gone in 2024, I have some livin' to do!
What realistic study says anything close to 3 years from now. In any case, 33% retirement rule should work if you believe that result.
Wow - "the inability to cool nuclear facilities will kill us all off" - you can cool a reactor off if the water was close to boiling - really silly, not reality.
I can’t believe this topic got 160 posts. It’s been done like 100 times! And there was nothing remotely new here, and not many new people in the thread either. Everybody that knows anything about it, talks about, but no one basically follows it. It is the most general rule of thumb there is. Especially since “success” simply means not running out of money. So a couple that dies with $1.98 left is successful. And so is a couple with $1.98 million. How freaking general is that?
There are probably 10 things off the top of my head that I can think of that are more important to a successful retirement, financially, than the 4% rule of thumb.
you got the premise of a swr wrong
the premise of a swr is about maintaining a safe ,secure , CONSISTENT income over the number of years YOU choose to want it to last …
it is designed to pensionize your money and provide an income you can count on in good and bad times as a minimum floor.
it has nothing to do with a balance left over anymore then a pension is left after the receiver dies.
while a left over balance may or may not be important it is not what the purpose of stress testing that portfolio is about
Last edited by mathjak107; 11-22-2021 at 03:57 AM..
I can’t believe this topic got 160 posts. It’s been done like 100 times! And there was nothing remotely new here, and not many new people in the thread either.
What next, another thread about aches and paints?
The evils of technology?
Retiring overseas?
Social security will it be there?
Were things better back in the day?
Downsizing the house!
I'm glad you delivered this sizzling exposé and brought to light the uncomfortable dark secret that a retirement forum with thousands of threads repeats topics, even more alarming is those topics tend to attract lots of the same people. I never realized it, but I think you're right. Everything will be different now, the forum will never hold the same appeal now that i know how it's rotten in the core, a malevolent force of repetition, a festering totem of garrulous loquacities.
I can’t believe this topic got 160 posts. It’s been done like 100 times! And there was nothing remotely new here, and not many new people in the thread either. Everybody that knows anything about it, talks about, but no one basically follows it. It is the most general rule of thumb there is. Especially since “success” simply means not running out of money. So a couple that dies with $1.98 left is successful. And so is a couple with $1.98 million. How freaking general is that?
There are probably 10 things off the top of my head that I can think of that are more important to a successful retirement, financially, than the 4% rule of thumb.
Interesting thing is that this post generated about half a dozen additional posts in response!
the premise of a swr is about maintaining a safe ,secure , CONSISTENT income over the number of years YOU choose to want it to last …
it is designed to pensionize your money and provide an income you can count on in good and bad times as a minimum floor.
it has nothing to do with a balance left over anymore then a pension is left after the receiver dies.
while a left over balance may or may not be important it is not what the purpose of stress testing that portfolio is about
This is a very good SIMPLE explanation. Thank you. Will my money last 30 years -- through good times and bad? That is the only thing I really care about -- leaving money behind is icing on the cake.
many dont get that this is no different than designing a house in a hurricane area .
if you build to withstand at least to the level of the most powerful storms ever seen in your area , you likely have a pretty good defense in place .
sure , a totally unexpected storm may be worse but odds may be very slim of that happening ….plus all you may have to do is something simple like put better window protection on for a stronger storm .
also the 4% swr is only one of many types of withdrawal plans ..it is really the most impractical to utilize other than as an opening day ball park .
without a format for taking raises there can be way to much money left over not enjoyed sticking to just an inflation adjustment …..
but it does let you see if the allocation you intend to use vs the draw you want to take initially has had a high rate of success
What next, another thread about aches and paints?
The evils of technology?
Retiring overseas?
Social security will it be there?
Were things better back in the day?
Downsizing the house!
Hahahaha!
"aches & paints"
Damn you, Sherwin Williams, you broke my achy heart!
Bunions and Bundt Cakes, can't be too far behind.
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