"The 4% Retirement Rule Is in Doubt. Will Your Nest Egg Last?" (coverage, payments)

[RationalExpectations]

Originally Posted by hikernut

You can get total-return performance charts free from Morningstar.

Using 1999 as the starting point, $10,000 in Contrafund has grown to $106,672, while the same amount in Vanguard's Index500 fund has grown to $57,432.

Please note I didn't compare FCNTX to VOO (or SPY or equivalent). FCNTX has VERY different characteristics than the S&P 500.

I compared FCNTX to a simple 50/50 mix of the iShares S&P 500 Growth Index ETF (IVW) and the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF (IWF). The 50/50 mix replicates almost precisely the characteristics of the actively managed FCNTX (market cap characteristics, growth bias, domestic bias, momentum bias, balance sheet quality bias, beta, intra-day volatility, currency risk, sector risk, country risk, etc etc etc) at a much lower expense ratio of .18% and .19%, respectively, compared to the overpriced FCNTX at .89%.

Originally Posted by mathjak107

there ya go …. no comparison for decades.

the results are similar for the total market.

vti started in 2002

contra 100,930

vti 64,724.

including reinvested dividends and all expenses

Again, I'm not comparing FCNTX to either the S&P 500 index and related funds, or to the total market index and related funds.

I'm comparing FCNTX to something nearly identical, but with much, much lower expense ratios.

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

Please note I didn't compare FCNTX to VOO (or SPY or equivalent). FCNTX has VERY different characteristics than the S&P 500.

I compared FCNTX to a simple 50/50 mix of the iShares S&P 500 Growth Index ETF (IVW) and the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF (IWF). The 50/50 mix replicates almost precisely the characteristics of the actively managed FCNTX (market cap characteristics, growth bias, domestic bias, momentum bias, balance sheet quality bias, beta, intra-day volatility, currency risk, sector risk, country risk, etc etc etc) at a much lower expense ratio of .18% and .19%, respectively, compared to the overpriced FCNTX at .89%.




Again, I'm not comparing FCNTX to either the S&P 500 index and related funds, or to the total market index and related funds.

I'm comparing FCNTX to something nearly identical, but with much, much lower expense ratios.

and i am telling you they can not be identical for long as contra changes all the time as a go anywhere fund…it is like finding a match to berkshire which owns private equity .

i can try to compare it to lots of things but i really cant…contra owns quite a bit of private equity.

i mean i have funds that beat contra , like fidelity blue chip growth or fidelity growth company which has better performance but they are not really comparable.

i am very happy with that performance and they make a nice combo

[mathjak107]

just for giggles i went back as far as i could with a 50/50 of ivw and iwf which is 2001 on portfolio visualizer since that is when those etfs came to be .


contra had 10k grow to 88,215 .. the ivw /iwf mix 60,771 .

i rest my case

can i find time frames the ivw/iwf mix did better , sure i can ….

but it isnt a given that because that mix has lower expenses it will do better, obviously it did not since its inception to now so to judge only by expense can be a mistake

[TuborgP]

I run both Fidelity Insight funds like MathJak along with a index portfolio.
I hear the pros and cons they have their own characteristics and challenge practical comparisons

[mathjak107]

same .. i have both a mix of index and the insight models …i cant say because the index funds are lower expense they do better …..some times yes ,sometimes no.

the stocks they own are a far greater factor

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by ohio_peasant

Do both include dividend reinvesting? If so, then I can not square these results with either Yahoo Finance or Rational Expectations' point.

Yes, this includes reinvestment of all distributions.

To my knowledge Yahoo charts show the fund NAV, which is not enough information for determining total returns. I've never noticed a total return mode... does such exist on Yahoo?

[Perryinva]

Bwahahaha. At least I got a chuckle from the sizzling repartee! (Especially from lieqiang, Old folks, gotta love’em. )

The irony is MY post was, or course, no more original than any other here. And I read the thread, guessing the same elements would be discussed. We ALL knew Matt would bring up the same quotes, and the same points. And they are typically correct, just as they were the other times. Perhaps I’m more sensitive to clikbait article reactions. Especially all the doom and gloom ones, as mentioned in lieqiangs post, and why I visit here less & less often.

Don’t worry…be happy.

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by Perryinva

Bwahahaha. At least I got a chuckle from the sizzling repartee! (Especially from lieqiang, Old folks, gotta love’em. )

The irony is MY post was, or course, no more original than any other here. And I read the thread, guessing the same elements would be discussed. We ALL knew Matt would bring up the same quotes, and the same points. And they are typically correct, just as they were the other times. Perhaps I’m more sensitive to clikbait article reactions. Especially all the doom and gloom ones, as mentioned in lieqiangs post, and why I visit here less & less often.

Don’t worry…be happy.

of course they are the same points , facts dont change….but one thing you notice is as many times as these facts and studies are presented and discussed many still dont get it .

so each time if someone who didnt get it previously understands it then the repeat threads are doing what they shoud do and educating those who didnt get it.

the one who should be doing the complaining is me . i am the one that tries to correct the myth and misinformation in most of these swr posts over and over

[hikernut]

Originally Posted by RationalExpectations

Please note I didn't compare FCNTX to VOO (or SPY or equivalent). FCNTX has VERY different characteristics than the S&P 500.

I compared FCNTX to a simple 50/50 mix of the iShares S&P 500 Growth Index ETF (IVW) and the iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF (IWF). The 50/50 mix replicates almost precisely the characteristics of the actively managed FCNTX (market cap characteristics, growth bias, domestic bias, momentum bias, balance sheet quality bias, beta, intra-day volatility, currency risk, sector risk, country risk, etc etc etc) at a much lower expense ratio of .18% and .19%, respectively, compared to the overpriced FCNTX at .89%.

I put part of my 401k into Contrafund in 1999, precisely because it's different than the S&P 500. At the time I felt valuations had gotten excessive on many of the big growth stocks. My 401k at the time did not have many alternatives, and Contrafund struck me as one of the better choices available in my plan.

IVW and IWF were both introduced in May 2000, and Contrafund has done better over their existence. $10,000 turned into...

Contra: $88,617
IVW: $52,576
IWF: $47,928

Sure, it's good to be mindful of the expense ratio, but I don't obsess about it to the point of dismissing all other considerations.

[elnrgby]

Originally Posted by mathjak107

of course they are the same points , facts dont change….but one thing you notice is as many times as these facts and studies are presented and discussed many still dont get it .

so each time if someone who didnt get it previously understands it then the repeat threads are doing what they shoud do and educating those who didnt get it.

the one who should be doing the complaining is me . i am the one that tries to correct the myth and misinformation in most of these swr posts over and over

So, this is tangentially related to the topic of the thread, but I guess this is the most recent Retirement thread that dealt, indirectly, with impact of inflation on retirement. I have just read in the NYC forum that the new mayor plans to make NYC into the world hub for cryptocurrency, which I understand is able to resist inflation (if it is in fact worth anything more than poker chips to start with). I don't plan on getting any cryptocurrency, but am just curious, and since you are into investing, I figured you'd be the person to ask here: what is this cryptocurrency stuff, and what is your opinion of it? It seems to be a type of virtual money, like stocks and bonds, but stocks and bonds are backed up by real companies - I don't understand what cryptocurrency is backed up with (since it is not something that has an intrinsic value to it).