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Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
13,070 posts, read 7,505,741 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by leastprime
All my collared shirts are minimally +10 years old.
YSMV
Other than that, just my/our discretionary trading accounts are down, at least 25%YtD. High risk.
All of the IRAs are now in RMD status. I've even minimized all trading account IRAs and IRAs in longevity-income, GLWB annuities to just RMD income. I need to get a better handle of our Income and taxes. Our tax accountant is late (its not that complicated) but we sold income property in 2021 and we are not absolutely sure if we set enough aside. I don't count the discretionary trading accounts to be in our retirement budget.
YMMV
Simple. To keep the rest of your money without risking it to more losses. It's called the preservation of capital.
I learned it painfully back in the 90s watching my stocks tanked but everyone (the experts) said keep it in the market "for the long term", but only to watch $100/sh stocks dropped down to pennies. So it can happen.
But a fund has a lot of different stocks in it - how likely is it that all of them will drop to near-zero, and not recover in 20 years? Also, my fund is managed, so it is up to the guy who manages it to think what to buy/sell and when. I would have no clue, not my field.
There is a reduction of equal amount left compounding
I do get it, and you are technically right, but it doesn't work out in practice quite the way it does in theory. And it does not address the historically better performance that dividend-payers have enjoyed vs. the SP500. I WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PAY MY BILLS AND INCREASE MY INCOME THESE PAST 3 YEARS WITHOUT MY DIVIDEND STOCKS. For me, that's ALL that matters at this time.
It's noteworthy that this past week's sell off was in reaction to the Fed raising interest rate by 0.5%.
Not really. The half point was already priced in long ago.
The sell off was because of the unforced error of Chairman Powell being needlessly dovish in the press conference, saying future rate hikes greater than a half point were off the table.
The unnecessary dovishness translates to higher expectations for inflation down the road compared to what they otherwise would be, which means the future stream of earnings by companies are discounted back to the present at a higher interest rate. Those future earnings are hence worth less in today's dollars and hence a lower stock price is justified.
There was no reason for Powell to say 3/4 point increases are off the table. It shows that in his gut he still thinks inflation is more a result of one-time shocks to the supply chain and the Russian invasion than a result of the Fed's massive expansion of the money supply in response to the Pandemic.
Not really. The half point was already priced in long ago.
The sell off was because of the unforced error of Chairman Powell being needlessly dovish in the press conference, saying future rate hikes greater than a half point were off the table.
The unnecessary dovishness translates to higher expectations for inflation down the road compared to what they otherwise would be, which means the future stream of earnings by companies are discounted back to the present at a higher interest rate. Those future earnings are hence worth less in today's dollars and hence a lower stock price is justified.
There was no reason for Powell to say 3/4 point increases are off the table. It shows that in his gut he still thinks inflation is more a result of one-time shocks to the supply chain and the Russian invasion than a result of the Fed's massive expansion of the money supply in response to the Pandemic.
That seems to be the problem . He spooked the markets
I do get it, and you are technically right, but it doesn't work out in practice quite the way it does in theory. And it does not address the historically better performance that dividend-payers have enjoyed vs. the SP500. I WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PAY MY BILLS AND INCREASE MY INCOME THESE PAST 3 YEARS WITHOUT MY DIVIDEND STOCKS. For me, that's ALL that matters at this time.
80% of the S&P are dividend payers so the comment that “ And it does not address the historically better performance that dividend-payers have enjoyed vs. the SP500.“ makes no sense.
I mean if you want to talk the highest dividend paying stocks in the dow , which are called the dogs of the dow ,they lagged the S&P 500 the last few years
If you are talking cherry picking specific stocks to compare to the S&P that is something else .. so that comment really makes no sense.
There is a lot of other stuff you said as well as income not keeping up which is likely way off base as well .
So little makes financial sense
Your claims without the whole financial picture means little to any of us
Give us specific stocks you have or funds and I will do a comparison for you
Last edited by mathjak107; 05-07-2022 at 01:45 PM..
Our 403b’s are 70% equities and our Roths are 100% equities. We have continued to DCA through everything. Got out a couple years back and got back in in time to catch about half the climb. Not likely to make that costly mistake again.
We will hold onto our bootstraps and hang in there. Still working and hope things turn around positively within five years or so.
Wondering how everybody is faring in this market downturn. Did you sell or hang in there? How much confidence do you have since most predictions say it’s not over yet. Personally I’ve lost a chunk and not even heavily invested in shocks. At my age, it’s scary.
Only if they bought in at the top. If you bought 2 years ago, you are still up 14,000 points. A correction was long overdue.
Selling is for amateurs who thought they knew their risk tolerance and didn’t or they don’t understand how hard it is timing their way back in.
The time to think about selling was when we were hitting new highs
I agree. I am invested in various mutual funds (Fidelity and Vanguard) and I am riding it out.
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