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Who is the reader to trust: Mr. Pathological, or the Providence Police Department?
The only pathological behavior I see here is the ongoing denial of the fear, heartache, and pain suffered by residents of Providence's troubled neighborhoods. My own accounts are based off of, and backed up by the Providence PD.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ormari
A more sensible way
You seriously underestimate the intelligence of the reader.
Location: Earth, a nice neighborhood in the Milky Way
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Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71
You seriously underestimate the intelligence of the reader.
I linked the Prov. Police Data precisely because I know the reader is smart enough to understand it plainly. The PPD are far more credible on the subject of violent crime than anyone on this board. It is evident from PPD data that you have mis-characterized Providence crime.
I linked the Prov. Police Data precisely because I know the reader is smart enough to understand it plainly. The PPD are far more credible on the subject of violent crime than anyone on this board. It is evident from PPD data that you have mis-characterized Providence crime.
No you simply keep moving the goalposts. This discussion began around the increase of violent crime over last year, with nothing said about 5 year trends. I'm not going to explain this again.
Location: Earth, a nice neighborhood in the Milky Way
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A refresher for the long-suffering reader:
Thread title: Providence violence on the rise again?
First post:
Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71
After what seemed like a relative slow start to the summer compared to 2021 (not counting the weekend of PVDFest), things might be heating up again. Two people were stabbed last night on Alverson Ave. in the Hartford/Silver Lake area of the city, following a fight between a group of people.
Based on various factors I'm not going to get into right now, there is certainly a potential for things to explode in the coming weeks (the ingredients are all there). How that manifests, is anybody's guess.
[ed: reference to yet another crime post deleted for everyone's sake]
So the OP suggested that violent crime is rising. Most of us would look at the # of events per unit time in the current year, and compare that number to the # of events per unit time in the past. As of 8/7/22, Providence Police say there have been 504 violent crime events year to date. Providence Police also say that last year at this time, there had been 503 violent crime events year to date. That's less than a 0.2% difference. I call that essentially the same as last year, not rising, not falling. The police say the same, they call it a 0% difference. But year to year comparisons are volatile. Better analysis is needed.
OP makes a belligerent show of not recognizing that normal people routinely look at averages over five, ten, and more years to get a better sense of what trends look like, smoothing out temporal anomalies, be it average mortgage rate, rainfall, temperature, or violent crime events. Let the reader make their own judgment about his refusal to try to understand the situation rationally, and his insistence that doing any basic analysis is moving the goalposts.
BTW, anybody have any insight into the predictive model "he won't... get into"? Based on the extremely limited analysis provided so far, my guess is he consulted an astrologer. Any other guesses?
Thread title: Providence violence on the rise again?
First post:
So the OP suggested that violent crime is rising. Most of us would look at the # of events per unit time in the current year, and compare that number to the # of events per unit time in the past. As of 8/7/22, Providence Police say there have been 504 violent crime events year to date. Providence Police also say that last year at this time, there had been 503 violent crime events year to date. That's less than a 0.2% difference. I call that essentially the same as last year, not rising, not falling. The police say the same, they call it a 0% difference. But year to year comparisons are volatile. Better analysis is needed.
OP makes a belligerent show of not recognizing that normal people routinely look at averages over five, ten, and more years to get a better sense of what trends look like, smoothing out temporal anomalies, be it average mortgage rate, rainfall, temperature, or violent crime events. Let the reader make their own judgment about his refusal to try to understand the situation rationally, and his insistence that doing any basic analysis is moving the goalposts.
BTW, anybody have any insight into the predictive model "he won't... get into"? Based on the extremely limited analysis provided so far, my guess is he consulted an astrologer. Any other guesses?
As you are well aware, I focus on the SERIOUS stuff. I don't think too many are worried about the "simple assaults" that tend to be far more random and with the greatest discrepancies in their reporting. August isn't over yet. I'm counting 336 incidents of serious violent crime from January - July of 2022, vs. 252 for January - July of 2021. That is an increase of 84 incidents, or a 33% increase from the first seven months of 2021 to first seven months of 2022. Not at all insignificant.
Location: Earth, a nice neighborhood in the Milky Way
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Quote:
Originally Posted by massnative71
I don't think too many are worried about the "simple assaults" that tend to be far more random and with the greatest discrepancies in their reporting. August isn't over yet. I'm counting 336 incidents of serious violent crime from January - July of 2022, vs. 252 for January - July of 2021. That is an increase of 84 incidents, or a 33% increase from the first seven months of 2021 to first seven months of 2022. Not at all insignificant.
Well isn't that precious... the OP selects which crimes he thinks are important to judge whether violent crime is going up or down. Of course, nobody knows how he selects them. Did he specify what kind of crime he was thinking about in the first post? Of course not. Does he cite his data so that the reader can verify it? Of course not. You're just supposed to blindly accept his word. You're supposed to accept that he knows better than the Providence Police. You're not supposed to compare Providence violent crime rates to that of other cities. You're not supposed to use basic math to compare current year Providence crime rates to average rates.
The Providence Police post crime data. The reader to look at the data themselves. And by the way, several weeks back the PPD held a press conference to note that crime was down...
Listen to the Providence Police, or listen to the OP?
Well isn't that precious... the OP selects which crimes he thinks are important to judge whether violent crime is going up or down. Of course, nobody knows how he selects them. Did he specify what kind of crime he was thinking about in the first post? Of course not. Does he cite his data so that the reader can verify it? Of course not. You're just supposed to blindly accept his word. You're supposed to accept that he knows better than the Providence Police. You're not supposed to compare Providence violent crime rates to that of other cities. You're not supposed to use basic math to compare current year Providence crime rates to average rates.
The Providence Police post crime data. The reader to look at the data themselves. And by the way, several weeks back the PPD held a press conference to note that crime was down...
Listen to the Providence Police, or listen to the OP?
All explained in depth on post #34.
With info obtained directly from the PPD. Any part you don't understand, I would be more than happy to explain.
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Apartment shot up in South Providence
