Housing bottom predictions? (Sacramento: short sales, apartment, foreclosures)

[sweetcynic]

I saw a few really old threads on this, predicting past dates. Any predictions? Looking at Zillow charts, I've noticed that the lower income areas are more or less where they were 10 years ago pricewise while the higher income areas aren't. Currently I rent an apt in midtown for far less than what a comparable condo would cost. Any predictions of when/whether:

1)Housing has/will bottom for the less desirable areas
2)Housing has/will bottom for Sacramento as a whole
3)Housing has/will bottom for the more desirable areas(Pocket, Land Park, East Sac, etc.)

And why?

I currently rent, and I've gotten a bunch of people telling me for the last 6 years that it was a good time to buy and haven't really believed them; hence I continue renting. I didn't trust them because I figured they were homeowners with wishful thinking. But then again, hoping for(and seeing) lower future prices has definitely delayed my decision to purchase - Maybe I also have wishful thinking. In any case I'd rather risk missing the bottom than being underwater.

[NinaN]

Here's a thought on waiting for the bottom to hit. Numbers are all made up for example.

A house is now $200K.
It goes down to $180K (this is the bottom).
You don't know the bottom hit until the price goes back up...to say $190K
Now you buy at $190K. Congrats, you saved $10K.

BUT interest rates are no longer 4.75%. They are now 5.5% - we all know the rates will go up when the market starts to recover. Congrats, you are now spending $92/month MORE than if you bought now.

Of course, the amount left to go down remains to be seen, but really, you cannot tell the bottom hit until you see prices go back up. By then, everyone is scrambling to buy before they go up further and the interest rates will go up since they have been hovering at all time lows.

[sweetcynic]

True, but at that point I'll have a larger down payment saved(currently I am putting ~$1000-$1400/month into savings) so I'll be paying interest on a lower loan amount, not to mention having lower or no PMI.

[hydro]

Save and avoid the PMI, even though:

It is a great time to buy if you are getting a loan, the interest rates are low. If you have cash it is an great time to buy as well, but don't worry about rushing before the projected rebound because that is for dreamers. Forclosures left and right, short sales everywhere, same ol thing.

[NinaN]

Yes, waiting to have more down and eliminate PMI is a very valid goal. Good for you!

[sweetcynic]

Thanks for the good feedback

[lgt]

If you are fine with renting I'd just wait. There is a lot of inventory, a lot of foreclosures to come, and unemployment is still very high. Since foreclosures and short sales take so long I suspect the bottom is a couple years or more away.

[Majin]

You're really asking the wrong question. Your question should be when is the economy going to pick up? Because housing prices will stay stagnant until then. Call me an ******* but I hope things stay the way they are for the forseeable future because rent prices are much higher than mortgage payments. It's an investors paradise if you can afford it.

[Mr. Ozo]

Well, I'm closing on a house in Midtown this week, it's taken 3 months of short sale hell. But I've been on the sidelines since 2008, because I had a swell deal on rent. Even I'm not sure we're at bottom, we could drop another 15% in the next 18 months before any rebound. Even one year ago we were still in bubble territory. What I understand markets can overshoot bottom, and then snap back up a bit.

I think this is a good time to buy if you can afford it, but again, maybe 12 months from now it will be cheaper, but interests are at historical lows and can't stay this way for much longer.

[KC6ZLV]

I have you beat. I've been dealing with a short sale since the end of February. In the meantime the apartment I'm in was foreclosed upon and I gotta move with nowhere to go.