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Old 12-11-2019, 09:39 PM
 
Location: where the good looking people are
3,817 posts, read 2,963,581 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
No way in the world I would buy in Gold River, at least not in the area controlled by the HOA, dues are $350-$400 a month and the rules of which there are hundreds are strictly enforced by HOA Nazis. College Glen is ok but I see no advantage to living there over Greenhaven or South Land Park
The HOA of Gold River is the reason it is seen as a desirable neighborhood to live. Upper middle class professionals do not want to live in neighborhoods where your neighbor can decide to paint their house pink, park their car on the front lawn, or turn the back yard into a junk yard.

They want a well kept neighborhood, with classy neighbors, private security, and decent schools for the kiddos. This is why Gold River has been stable for the last 35 years.

Politically, Gold River is a huge boon for the San Juan School District. The several hundred semi-affluent high school students from Gold River adds just enough students to Rio Americano High. It keeps up enrollment numbers and it prevents them from having to redraw the attendance boundaries much. This allows Rio Americano to maintain it's status as the "rich kids high school", which keeps well off parents happy. If Gold River had fed it's students into Rancho Cordova schools, the neighborhood would probably be in a decline similar to South Natomas.
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Old 12-11-2019, 10:05 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,151 posts, read 16,237,227 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical View Post
The HOA of Gold River is the reason it is seen as a desirable neighborhood to live. Upper middle class professionals do not want to live in neighborhoods where your neighbor can decide to paint their house pink, park their car on the front lawn, or turn the back yard into a junk yard.

They want a well kept neighborhood, with classy neighbors, private security, and decent schools for the kiddos. This is why Gold River has been stable for the last 35 years.

Politically, Gold River is a huge boon for the San Juan School District. The several hundred semi-affluent high school students from Gold River adds just enough students to Rio Americano High. It keeps up enrollment numbers and it prevents them from having to redraw the attendance boundaries much. This allows Rio Americano to maintain it's status as the "rich kids high school", which keeps well off parents happy. If Gold River had fed it's students into Rancho Cordova schools, the neighborhood would probably be in a decline similar to South Natomas.
We will have to agree to disagree, I lived in an HOA in Reno for 14 years, I will never do it again. I'm 73 I've owned homes since I was 21, I have never lived in a neighorhood with pink houses or cars parked on the lawn, that has more to do about the neighborhood you choose than it does having an HOA
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Old 12-11-2019, 10:37 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical View Post
I think the semi-affluent established areas will stay that way. Curtis Park, Land Park, and East Sac have withstood the test of time. As have the communities on the north bluffs of the American River. The same is going to happen for the communities on Folsom Lake.

The thing is, Roseville, Elk Grove, El Dorado Hills, and Vineyard have so much open space that they can simply keep building until they become the next Fremont. I think they have the middle/upper middle class market cornered pretty well.

West Sac, Natomas, Rancho and Lincoln also have tons of open space near by. I think they will continue to serve your work force types -the lower middle class masses.

Unlike the South Bay and the Peninsula, the underlying distribution of income in Sacramento region seems to be fairly static. We aren't having a tech boom. That means that if the overall region grows by 20%, the regions bottom half of the income distribution has also grown by 20%. In addition, there are probably some older neighborhoods that are going to continue to gentrify like say downtown, Oak Park, parts of West Sac near downtown where people in the bottom half income distribution are going to get displaced to other areas. While you can find poor people in Meadowview and Del Paso Heights, the existing neighborhoods with the bottom half of the income distribution aren't further densifying so the bottom half of the income distribution is not going to be contained to existing neighborhoods its going to spread.

New housing generally only gets built when people moving into it can afford the cost of construction. So people in the bottom half of the income distribution generally aren't moving into new areas unless they are moving into subsidized housing.

I agree with your assessment that the areas along the North Bank of the American River are going to hold. I think areas along the South Bank might get better because there is a limited number of places in Sacramento that are near a river and near jobs. I also think the areas near Folsom lake , Lake Natoma and the Sacramento River will hold for similar reasons. But otherwise I tend to think that neighborhoods where the housing stock was built before 1990 are going to lose some luster. I am not saying that they will become slums, but just experience relative decline.

For housing stock built after 1990, most of it is in pretty good shape. But when the housing starts getting older than say 30 years, how well the house was maintained becomes a bigger factor than how well it was initially built. When you go into the homes built before 1990, they start needing new roofs, the kitchen and bath need to be updated and if that didn't happen, you notice and if there are a lot of homes like that, the neighborhood seems to be losing to be going into relative decline. We have seen that occur in Arden Arcade in the areas west of Watt Avenue. parts of Carmichael and parts of Citrus Heights, but I think that will happen in Antelope, Natomas and the parts of Roseville that are adjacent to interstate 80. I think the parts of Elk Grove near Valley Hi are also kind of at risk for similar reasons. The older parts of Rocklin near the railroad tacks and 80 I also could see it happening.
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Old 12-12-2019, 08:00 AM
 
921 posts, read 917,321 times
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So if you were a single person living on a single income working downtown for the state and needed a way to commute to and from there on a medium income under 100k, where would you buy and why? I don't need a palace but I hate renting but want easy commute without spending $100 for parking a month and no 2 hour commute.
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Old 12-12-2019, 04:55 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mixxalot View Post
So if you were a single person living on a single income working downtown for the state and needed a way to commute to and from there on a medium income under 100k, where would you buy and why? I don't need a palace but I hate renting but want easy commute without spending $100 for parking a month and no 2 hour commute.
Honestly if it were me, I would hold off on buying until a later point in the housing cycle. Neighborhoods that I like would be South of Sutterville Rd either across from city college (I think that area is Carleton Track) or across from Curtiss Park behind the Sacramento Children's receiving home (I think that area is considered North City Farms). You are fairly close to light rail. You are fairly close to either Curtis Park or Land Park. But its more affordable, but still fairly safe. I would also look at Woodlake at Arden and Del Paso Blvd (nice neighbor surrounded by more sketchy areas) but near light rail. Lastly I would also look at Del Paso Manor which is located between Watt and Eastern and Marconi and Maryal Dr/Ione Streets. There are buses running down Watt Ave taking you both light rail stations. The neighborhood is great.
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Old 12-13-2019, 01:04 PM
 
137 posts, read 162,975 times
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Quote:
The HOA of Gold River is the reason it is seen as a desirable neighborhood to live. Upper middle class professionals do not want to live in neighborhoods where your neighbor can decide to paint their house pink, park their car on the front lawn, or turn the back yard into a junk yard.
This is a great example of 20th century conventional thinking. Of course ironically it’s these ‘protections’ which prevent neighborhoods from improving dramatically over time as well. I’m not sure there’s any other area of Sacramento that’s had a worse ROI appreciation in the last 8 years than Gold River. A great hood to grow old in and dust your tchotchkes but young families should absolutely steer clear of this one. About as much cheer as a graveyard.
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Old 12-13-2019, 01:29 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,151 posts, read 16,237,227 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shelato View Post
Honestly if it were me, I would hold off on buying until a later point in the housing cycle. Neighborhoods that I like would be South of Sutterville Rd either across from city college (I think that area is Carleton Track) or across from Curtiss Park behind the Sacramento Children's receiving home (I think that area is considered North City Farms). You are fairly close to light rail. You are fairly close to either Curtis Park or Land Park. But its more affordable, but still fairly safe. I would also look at Woodlake at Arden and Del Paso Blvd (nice neighbor surrounded by more sketchy areas) but near light rail. Lastly I would also look at Del Paso Manor which is located between Watt and Eastern and Marconi and Maryal Dr/Ione Streets. There are buses running down Watt Ave taking you both light rail stations. The neighborhood is great.
I'm not sure why you would suggest Del Paso Manor to someone working downtown, yes it's safe and it's cheap but it's not close to downtown and taking a bus to light rail isn't the funnest thing to do. Greenhaven is safer, nicer, closer, and not that much more expensive - and it has sidewalks and street lights!
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Old 12-13-2019, 05:05 PM
 
1,614 posts, read 1,455,139 times
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Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
I'm not sure why you would suggest Del Paso Manor to someone working downtown, yes it's safe and it's cheap but it's not close to downtown and taking a bus to light rail isn't the funnest thing to do. Greenhaven is safer, nicer, closer, and not that much more expensive - and it has sidewalks and street lights!
I agree Greenhaven is nice, but I saw it as more expensive too. If you were priced out of Greenhaven then where would you go? For me if you are working downtown, you are trading off proximity to downtown/commute, your own perception of neighborhood safety/sense of community and neighborhood amenities.

So for instance Carlton Track and North City farms seem to be neighborhoods with more rental units than owner occupied homes in those neighborhoods. But the renters themselves were mostly students at City College, so I would feel safe there. But if the fence between your house and the house next door blew down, because that house is rental you might need to get permission from the property management company who has to talk to the landlord to come up with a plan to fix the fence. This is also a neighborhood were because your neighbors are renters who move in and out, you just never get a chance to really get to know them. Woodlake is much more owner occupied, than the above neighborhoods, and its close to downtown, the houses have some charm, but its adjacent to more sketchy neighborhoods. But I could see some people saying I don't feel safe there. Del Paso Manor is safe, its an owner occupied neighborhood that's affordable and still quite close to downtown. I personally have lived in Arden Park in the past, although now I am living in Willhaggen/Del Dayo. I would have no problem with commute from Del Paso Manor to downtown.
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Old 12-13-2019, 09:13 PM
 
921 posts, read 917,321 times
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The other issue is high cost of parking downtown since as a state employee, we don't get the luxury of free parking at work. This is one big issue I have had to suffer since moving from private sector to public sector. Working in the corporate world for the past 20 years, I always had free parking. Not so as a state employee which is the stinkiest thing besides no free coffee and low pay. Then again, it beats unemployment and going homeless lol.
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Old 12-14-2019, 12:25 AM
 
Location: where the good looking people are
3,817 posts, read 2,963,581 times
Reputation: 3284
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stay West View Post
This is a great example of 20th century conventional thinking. Of course ironically it’s these ‘protections’ which prevent neighborhoods from improving dramatically over time as well. I’m not sure there’s any other area of Sacramento that’s had a worse ROI appreciation in the last 8 years than Gold River. A great hood to grow old in and dust your tchotchkes but young families should absolutely steer clear of this one. About as much cheer as a graveyard.
Gold River was designed for the Upper Middle class, it is not Janky Oak Park. The only reason people leave Gold River is when they are moving on up.

The ROI appreciation is fine in Gold River. Just looked at Zillow and saw an 800k home that was 400k in 2011. Seems pretty inline with Sac-Joaquin Market. The 8 year ROA and many gold River Homes is greater in value than Oak Park homes' current market value, for example

Young families will do fine. As of 2017 there were 654 children between 5-14 years old. Biggest problem for Sacramento young families is the price point. With entry level townhomes going at 450k and County median family incomes of $60,000/annual most simply will not be able to afford $2500/monthly payments for Gold River.
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