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Old 03-25-2020, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,155 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25741

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimérique View Post
Willingly shutting down our way of life could mean a complete collapse of American society as we know it, and have always know it.
Then by all means tell us what you would do if you were in charge.
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Old 03-25-2020, 12:12 PM
 
Location: Carmichael, CA
2,083 posts, read 3,328,137 times
Reputation: 3404
For your consideration:

Sacramento Bee, July 19, 2009, 2 months after H1N1 (swine flu) had been declared a pandemic by the CDC:

As of Thursday, a dozen other cases had been reported in Placer County and 3,168 cases in California. Fifty-five people have died with the virus statewide.

Most cases have been considered "mild to moderate," and patients have recovered.

The Placer case is the third fatality involving the H1N1 virus in the Sacramento region.


No shutdowns. No shelter in place. No expectation that the President "fix" this or be declared a failure. No one lost their jobs.

Sacramento Bee, July 26, 2009:

When it comes to the seriousness of swine flu, known in the medical community as H1N1, Trochet said the public should not underestimate how bad things can get.

"H1N1 has the potential to be a disaster," Trochet said. "It might end up being nothing, but this has been a top priority of ours for a while because we know it could cause major, major problems."


No action taken by any politician that I could find.

Sacramento Bee, July 31, 2009:

But the county, like the state and the federal governments, recently abandoned efforts to report all diagnosed cases (of H1N1).

Instead, health agencies have gone back to flu surveillance programs designed to capture a representative sample of cases, along with more extensive reporting of hospitalizations and deaths.


Sacramento Bee, Sept. 15, 2009:

As of last week, 1,806 people in California had been infected by the H1N1 virus -- and 152 had died, according to the state's Department of Public Health.

The first outbreak was reported in the United States in the spring. Since then, 9,079 people have been hospitalized, with 593 deaths blamed on H1N1, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The seasonal flu typically causes 36,000 deaths in the United States every year, according to government health estimates.


On October 25, 2009, President Obama declared the H1N1 a national emergency. That story was picked up in other newspapers--I couldn't find it reported in the Sacramento Bee.

From the CDC website: The CDC estimated that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million H1N1 cases, with 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone.

No panic. No shutdowns. The President barely weighed in. People went about their business while being urged to wash their hands and cover their mouths if they coughed. In other words, life as usual.

And now this.

There's absolutely no evidence that shutting down our economy and "sheltering in place" will prevent one case or one death. A friend just spent yesterday out shopping in Sacramento and found most stores to be open for business, whether they were supposed to be or not. Forcing certain stores to close seems to be more about the optics of "look what I'm doing to protect my constituents" than saving anyone from being exposed. And of course, making the President look bad.

Too bad the media wasn't laser-focused on making the President look bad in 2009. Might have saved some of the 12,469 that died.
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Old 03-25-2020, 01:15 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,155 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25741
Quote:
Originally Posted by cb73 View Post
For your consideration:
Sacramento Bee, July 19, 2009, 2 months after H1N1 (swine flu) had been declared a pandemic by the CDC:
As of Thursday, a dozen other cases had been reported in Placer County and 3,168 cases in California. Fifty-five people have died with the virus statewide.
Most cases have been considered "mild to moderate," and patients have recovered.
The Placer case is the third fatality involving the H1N1 virus in the Sacramento region.

No shutdowns. No shelter in place. No expectation that the President "fix" this or be declared a failure. No one lost their jobs.
Sacramento Bee, July 26, 2009:
When it comes to the seriousness of swine flu, known in the medical community as H1N1, Trochet said the public should not underestimate how bad things can get.
"H1N1 has the potential to be a disaster," Trochet said. "It might end up being nothing, but this has been a top priority of ours for a while because we know it could cause major, major problems."

No action taken by any politician that I could find.
Sacramento Bee, July 31, 2009:
But the county, like the state and the federal governments, recently abandoned efforts to report all diagnosed cases (of H1N1).
Instead, health agencies have gone back to flu surveillance programs designed to capture a representative sample of cases, along with more extensive reporting of hospitalizations and deaths.

Sacramento Bee, Sept. 15, 2009:
As of last week, 1,806 people in California had been infected by the H1N1 virus -- and 152 had died, according to the state's Department of Public Health.
The first outbreak was reported in the United States in the spring. Since then, 9,079 people have been hospitalized, with 593 deaths blamed on H1N1, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The seasonal flu typically causes 36,000 deaths in the United States every year, according to government health estimates.

On October 25, 2009, President Obama declared the H1N1 a national emergency. That story was picked up in other newspapers--I couldn't find it reported in the Sacramento Bee.
From the CDC website: The CDC estimated that from April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, there were 60.8 million H1N1 cases, with 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths in the U.S. alone.
No panic. No shutdowns. The President barely weighed in. People went about their business while being urged to wash their hands and cover their mouths if they coughed. In other words, life as usual.
And now this.
There's absolutely no evidence that shutting down our economy and "sheltering in place" will prevent one case or one death. A friend just spent yesterday out shopping in Sacramento and found most stores to be open for business, whether they were supposed to be or not. Forcing certain stores to close seems to be more about the optics of "look what I'm doing to protect my constituents" than saving anyone from being exposed. And of course, making the President look bad.
Too bad the media wasn't laser-focused on making the President look bad in 2009. Might have saved some of the 12,469 that died.
H1N1 was not like this virus. This is far different and makes far more people seriously ill. Here are some statistics on H1N1
Quote:
  • In the U.S., between April 2009 and April 2010, the CDC estimates there were 60.8 million cases of swine flu, with over 274,000 hospitalizations and nearly 12,500 deaths — that's a mortality rate of about 0.02%.
  • The mortality rate for the novel coronavirus is much higher so far, around 2% (although the number will likely change as more people are tested)
  • The H1N1 flu was also less contagious than the novel coronavirus. The basic reproduction number, also called the R-nought value, is the expected number of individuals who can catch the virus from a single infected person. For the 2009 H1N1 virus, the mean R-nought value was 1.46, according to a review published in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases. For the novel coronavirus, the R-nought value is estimated to be between 2 and 2.5, at the moment.
https://www.livescience.com/covid-19...swine-flu.html
The current strategy of 'shelter in place' is being done to avoid overwhelming hospitals with patients. Until someone convinces me that they have a better plan I'm willing to go along with what we are being asked to do.
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Old 03-25-2020, 01:18 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,155 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25741
As of 3/25 Sacramento had 113 confirmed cases and 5 deaths

https://www.saccounty.net/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspx
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Old 03-25-2020, 01:41 PM
 
Location: Carmichael, CA
2,083 posts, read 3,328,137 times
Reputation: 3404
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
The current strategy of 'shelter in place' is being done to avoid overwhelming hospitals with patients. Until someone convinces me that they have a better plan I'm willing to go along with what we are being asked to do.
Better Plan:

South Korea. From a news article:

Within weeks of the current outbreak in Wuhan, China, four Korean companies had manufactured tests from a World Health Organization recipe and, as a result, the country quickly had a system that could assess 10,000 people a day.

Then they isolated only the people that tested positive, kept up the testing, and are well on their way to ending the virus in their country.

While we sat and complained that it was "too hard to get tests" and are just now barely starting to test in any volume. The last I heard you had to qualify to get a test--a friend's daughter with massive upper respiratory infection/issues was deemed not to qualify. She's better now, but if she had it, how many people did she expose?
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Old 03-25-2020, 01:50 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,155 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25741
Quote:
Originally Posted by cb73 View Post
Better Plan:

South Korea. From a news article:

Within weeks of the current outbreak in Wuhan, China, four Korean companies had manufactured tests from a World Health Organization recipe and, as a result, the country quickly had a system that could assess 10,000 people a day.

Then they isolated only the people that tested positive, kept up the testing, and are well on their way to ending the virus in their country.

While we sat and complained that it was "too hard to get tests" and are just now barely starting to test in any volume. The last I heard you had to qualify to get a test--a friend's daughter with massive upper respiratory infection/issues was deemed not to qualify. She's better now, but if she had it, how many people did she expose?
I agree but we blew it when it comes to testing, from the very start we refused free test kids from WHO, then CDC made some kind of mistake in making the kits and wasted even more time. I think what would be more helpful would be to develop a test to detect people who have had it and have recovered. If you allow everyone to run around the streets who tests negative you are making an assumption that they they haven't been exposed - but in reality they may have been exposed but not enough time has passed for them to test positive.

Last edited by 2sleepy; 03-25-2020 at 02:04 PM..
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Old 03-25-2020, 06:13 PM
 
Location: Sacramento
501 posts, read 392,804 times
Reputation: 917
Quote:
Originally Posted by cb73 View Post
Better Plan:

South Korea. From a news article:

Within weeks of the current outbreak in Wuhan, China, four Korean companies had manufactured tests from a World Health Organization recipe and, as a result, the country quickly had a system that could assess 10,000 people a day.

Then they isolated only the people that tested positive, kept up the testing, and are well on their way to ending the virus in their country.

While we sat and complained that it was "too hard to get tests" and are just now barely starting to test in any volume. The last I heard you had to qualify to get a test--a friend's daughter with massive upper respiratory infection/issues was deemed not to qualify. She's better now, but if she had it, how many people did she expose?
I agree that South Korea was the response to emulate. But we did not do that. Questions have to be asked of why we have not been able to respond to this thing in any capable manner. The lack of a proper testing kits and vast numbers of tests to then target and isolate was clearly the path to take from quite early on. The only thing left for us to do in the wake of what has happened in Italy and now Spain was to shut everything down. The repercussions if we did not were way too risky. A full overload of the medical system would result in thousands of deaths both directly from the virus and indirectly from the inability to care for others while dealing with a pandemic. It still might go south pretty fast.
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Old 03-25-2020, 09:46 PM
 
921 posts, read 917,321 times
Reputation: 438
Lucky state workers outside of technology like the difficult neighbor downstairs are getting FREE PAID vacations to stay home.
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:50 AM
 
5,239 posts, read 5,556,589 times
Reputation: 2535
Quote:
Originally Posted by cb73 View Post
Better Plan:

South Korea. From a news article:

Within weeks of the current outbreak in Wuhan, China, four Korean companies had manufactured tests from a World Health Organization recipe and, as a result, the country quickly had a system that could assess 10,000 people a day.

Then they isolated only the people that tested positive, kept up the testing, and are well on their way to ending the virus in their country.

While we sat and complained that it was "too hard to get tests" and are just now barely starting to test in any volume. The last I heard you had to qualify to get a test--a friend's daughter with massive upper respiratory infection/issues was deemed not to qualify. She's better now, but if she had it, how many people did she expose?
We have ramped up, more tests were done in 8 days in USA, than S. Korea did in 8 weeks.
S. Korea was hit hard 4-6 weeks earlier than USA which is why they started testing earlier and faster.
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Old 03-26-2020, 07:24 AM
 
Location: So Ca
18,431 posts, read 16,956,018 times
Reputation: 16093
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnS_15 View Post
Questions have to be asked of why we have not been able to respond to this thing in any capable manner. The lack of a proper testing kits and vast numbers of tests to then target and isolate was clearly the path to take from quite early on.
On Feb. 10, nearly three weeks after the first coronavirus case was diagnosed in the United States, Mr. Trump submitted a 2021 budget proposal that called for a $693.3 million reduction in funding for the C.D.C., or about 9 percent, although there was a modest increase for the division that combats global pandemics.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/19/u...07tion=topNews
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