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Old 03-26-2020, 07:59 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,155 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25741

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimérique View Post
We have ramped up, more tests were done in 8 days in USA, than S. Korea did in 8 weeks.
S. Korea was hit hard 4-6 weeks earlier than USA which is why they started testing earlier and faster.
That claim about the US doing more testing in 8 days than in 8 weeks in South Korea is wrong. It's a claim Trump made.

Quote:
The COVID Tracking Project, a nationwide dataset managed by volunteer analysts and journalists, reported 344,728 tests as of March 24 (it's 418,810 as of today, March 25). And the total for the eight days between March 16 and March 24 comes to 304,605 tests, according to the tracker. So, that's 43,790 fewer tests than the past eight weeks in South Korea.

Although both countries reported their first cases of COVID-19 on the same day (Jan. 20South Korea has 51 million people, the US has 329 million, if you adjust for population size South Korea's testing rate is already six times higher than the test rate in the U.S. So far, the U.S. test rate is about 1,048 tests per million people and South Korea's is 6,764 tests per million people.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavi...uth-korea.html
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Old 03-26-2020, 08:01 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,155 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25741
Quote:
Originally Posted by mixxalot View Post
Lucky state workers outside of technology like the difficult neighbor downstairs are getting FREE PAID vacations to stay home.
Are you sure they aren't working from home? My son is an accountant and works for a County in California. He works from home over a VPN, he has the same workload as he did before- hardly a vacation for him.
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:54 AM
 
102 posts, read 81,648 times
Reputation: 149
Following up on discussion of COVID vs. H1N1, from CDC numbers:

H1N1 US death rate: 0.02% (60.8 million cases, almost 300,000 hospitalizations, 12,000 dead)
Current COVID-19 US death rate: 1.51% (70,000 cases, 1,000 dead)

COVID numbers are likely to change, but if the testing has not been adequate that suggests that the number is likely to fall, which has been the trend as testing has increased (it was 3%, now 1.5% due to increased testing). Those with serious complications or dead will be overrepresented at the current level of testing, which means most of the untested people are either mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic and very unlikely to die from COVID. Keep in mind the overwhelming number of COVID deaths are among the elderly or patients with comorbidities, so the danger to much of the population remains low and if controlled by age group very well may be far less than H1N1 which killed quite a few young, otherwise healthy people.

Not saying what we're doing is right or wrong, it's just going to be tragic in retrospect if we damaged the economy and social fabric the amount we have if the current trend of diminishing mortality rate continues and we realize that it was, in fact, less dangerous for most people than originally thought. We might be really glad we did all this, though, if things don't pan out that way.

Back to coffee and the chilly but beautiful Sacramento March morning.
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Old 03-26-2020, 11:11 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,155 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25741
Quote:
Originally Posted by CA-CHI-CO View Post
Following up on discussion of COVID vs. H1N1, from CDC numbers:

H1N1 US death rate: 0.02% (60.8 million cases, almost 300,000 hospitalizations, 12,000 dead)
Current COVID-19 US death rate: 1.51% (70,000 cases, 1,000 dead)

COVID numbers are likely to change, but if the testing has not been adequate that suggests that the number is likely to fall, which has been the trend as testing has increased (it was 3%, now 1.5% due to increased testing). Those with serious complications or dead will be overrepresented at the current level of testing, which means most of the untested people are either mildly symptomatic or asymptomatic and very unlikely to die from COVID. Keep in mind the overwhelming number of COVID deaths are among the elderly or patients with comorbidities, so the danger to much of the population remains low and if controlled by age group very well may be far less than H1N1 which killed quite a few young, otherwise healthy people.

Not saying what we're doing is right or wrong, it's just going to be tragic in retrospect if we damaged the economy and social fabric the amount we have if the current trend of diminishing mortality rate continues and we realize that it was, in fact, less dangerous for most people than originally thought. We might be really glad we did all this, though, if things don't pan out that way.

Back to coffee and the chilly but beautiful Sacramento March morning.
It would be a lot more tragic if you're guess is wrong and we lose hundreds of thousands of younger people, dontcha think?
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Old 03-26-2020, 12:29 PM
 
Location: SAN FRANCISCO
1,135 posts, read 778,661 times
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https://www.vox.com/science-and-heal...mparison-chart
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Old 03-26-2020, 01:00 PM
 
Location: So Ca
18,431 posts, read 16,956,018 times
Reputation: 16093
Quote:
Originally Posted by CA-CHI-CO View Post
Following up on discussion of COVID vs. H1N1, from CDC numbers:

H1N1 US death rate: 0.02% (60.8 million cases, almost 300,000 hospitalizations, 12,000 dead)
Current COVID-19 US death rate:1.51% (70,000 cases, 1,000 dead).....
One can't compare a virus that has not even peaked to one that has completely run its course.

The 2009 H1N1 pandemic should have been a warning sign," said Steffanie Strathdee, the Associate Dean of Global Health Sciences at the University of California San Diego's Department of Medicine. "It didn't end up being a pandemic that killed millions of people as we feared it would, but it should have been a wake-up call. By all serious estimates, COVID-19 is going to be a major killer."

In the U.S., between April 2009 and April 2010, the CDC estimates there were 60.8 million cases of swine flu, with over 274,000 hospitalizations and nearly 12,500 deaths — that's a mortality rate of about 0.02%.

The mortality rate for the novel coronavirus is much higher so far, around 2% (although the number will likely change as more people are tested). That may not sound like a big difference, "but when extrapolated, can mean millions more deaths," Strathdee said.

The H1N1 flu was also less contagious than the novel coronavirus. The basic reproduction number, also called the R-nought value, is the expected number of individuals who can catch the virus from a single infected person. For the 2009 H1N1 virus, the mean R-nought value was 1.46, according to a review published in the journal BMC Infectious Diseases. For the novel coronavirus, the R-nought value is estimated to be between 2 and 2.5, at the moment.


https://www.livescience.com/covid-19...swine-flu.html
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Old 03-26-2020, 08:41 PM
 
5,239 posts, read 5,556,589 times
Reputation: 2535
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
That claim about the US doing more testing in 8 days than in 8 weeks in South Korea is wrong. It's a claim Trump made.
Actually its a claim that Dr. Brix and Dr. Fauci made. The important thing is they are doing much more testing and with faster and faster test results.

Your source "voluntary analysts and journalist"s" -- not to be trusted. There are no real honest journalists anymore, they are spin doctors overwhelmingly biased with political agendas to support.

I am glad President Trump closed air traffic from China as early as he did. That action probably saved thousands of lives.

I wonder why Europe took so long in closing its borders to China and to other countries within Europe. Europe's foolish action has resulted in thousands of deaths.

I guess Europe took so long in closing their borders because it was more important not to be called "racists", than it was to protect the health of their citizens.

Last edited by Chimérique; 03-26-2020 at 08:56 PM..
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:12 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,155 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25741
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimérique View Post
Your source "voluntary analysts and journalist"s" -- not to be trusted. There are no real honest journalists anymore, they are spin doctors overwhelmingly biased with political agendas to support.
Geezus..the Covid tracking is legit, and even if they weren't it doesn't change what I said. It's too bad that when Trump shut off travel with China he failed to start doing testing huh? I guess he didn't want anything to get in the way of his claim that we had 15 people with the virus and soon it would be zero.
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:16 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,155 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25741
A little good news from UC Davis

Quote:
At this time only about one in 20 patients that arrive at the hospital with flu-like symptoms have tested positive for coronavirus, Lubarsky said. “Very, very few patients are testing positive for COVID-19,” in Sacramento, he said. He attributed that, in part, to the early orders from county and state officials to stay home and practice social distancing. (From Sacramento Bee Biz Journal 3/26)
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Old 03-26-2020, 10:28 PM
 
Location: Carmichael, CA
2,083 posts, read 3,328,137 times
Reputation: 3404
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
Geezus..the Covid tracking is legit, and even if they weren't it doesn't change what I said. It's too bad that when Trump shut off travel with China he failed to start doing testing huh? I guess he didn't want anything to get in the way of his claim that we had 15 people with the virus and soon it would be zero.
At the time the CDC was talking about not having the "right" tests and refusing to use the ones that were then available.

But yeah, let's make it Trump's fault.
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