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Old 05-07-2020, 03:13 PM
 
1,614 posts, read 1,455,139 times
Reputation: 1426

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Nordstrom announced that its closing its Arden Fair location.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...cid=spartanntp


JCPenney is discussing bankruptcy. Sears isn't doing much better.

Originally because it wasn't doing that well before, I thought Covid 19 would kill off Sunrise. Now I am thinking its going to kill off both Sunrise and Arden Fair. Arden Fair was a huge source of sales tax for the city of Sacramento, that I think is going to go mostly to the Galleria and to a lesser extent to Broadstone in Folsom and the El Dorado Town Center.

Other places that I think might benefit would be Pavillions, Town and Country Village and likely downtown.
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Old 05-08-2020, 10:07 AM
 
921 posts, read 917,321 times
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Hopefully Nordstrom Rack remains open.
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Old 05-08-2020, 06:18 PM
 
1,614 posts, read 1,455,139 times
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Walmart couldn't make a go of it in Arden Arcade.

The problem for Arden Fair is what do they replace Nordstrom's with? When Sears in the Roseville Galleria folded, they announced plans for a Movie Theater and Bowling Alley to replace it. Demographically that is just a better location than Arden Fair and they were looking when the economy was still strong. Moreover Broadstone in Folsom and the El Dorado Town Center were designed and built out without traditional department store anchors acknowledging the problem of landing anchors. What I am getting at is that I don't see Arden Fair attracting a new department store. At Arden Fair, the existing movie theater near Barnes and Noble folded because of the competition from the remodeled Century and the newer theater with booze and food at Country Club. So I don't think they can copy the Galleria playbook either. Now if you are JCPenny or Sears and you are thinking about filing bankruptcy. What stores do you decide to keep and what stores do you decide to close. My hunch is that in any mall that is missing an anchor, you pull out of. So in the Sacramento region. I think they keep the Galleria and close everything else.

Now if the Arden Fair Mall closes, how much do sales of stores in nearby fall? Empty malls are eye sores. When the rent goes down, they don't have the money to pay for landscaping and security so the area gets much worse quickly. An abandoned mall is that type of thing that becomes a homeless encampment. Which is already a problem in the area of the Arden Fair Mall. If you are the Nordstrom Rack, with only one Nordstrom in the area you might not need three Nordstrom Racks. I am thinking you close the one in the area with the worst demographics.

Now the other issue is what do you replace the Arden Fair Mall with? If I was the City of Sacramento I would be encouraging an Automall (for the sales tax) or you just expand Point West style of zoning, a mixture of office parks and Apartment complexes. I could also see a big box power center sort of like Promenade in Natomas where they have the Target, Barnes and Noble, Best Buy and a Burlington Coat Factory. But City Hall in Sacramento is pretty focused on downtown and tends to ignore everything else. So I could see it limping along as a dead mall the way Country Club Center and Country Club Plaza have kind of lingered on.
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Old 05-08-2020, 10:38 PM
 
921 posts, read 917,321 times
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@shelato you raise a valid point for consideration. I'd opt for more affordable rental housing which the Sacramento area is really in dire of need in as most cannot afford luxury rental rates. Plus it would be close to downtown for state workers who don't want a commute and don't want to pay 2k to live in midtown.
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Old 05-09-2020, 12:26 AM
 
Location: California USA
1,291 posts, read 744,016 times
Reputation: 376
Quote:
Originally Posted by shelato View Post
Nordstrom announced that its closing its Arden Fair location.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...cid=spartanntp


JCPenney is discussing bankruptcy. Sears isn't doing much better.

Originally because it wasn't doing that well before, I thought Covid 19 would kill off Sunrise. Now I am thinking its going to kill off both Sunrise and Arden Fair. Arden Fair was a huge source of sales tax for the city of Sacramento, that I think is going to go mostly to the Galleria and to a lesser extent to Broadstone in Folsom and the El Dorado Town Center.

Other places that I think might benefit would be Pavillions, Town and Country Village and likely downtown.
Amazon and the change in buying habits from brick and mortar to online purchases has killed off retail and pushed others to the brink. It's a shame.
I'm thinking the only retail left will be Target, Walmart, Best Buy and Costco.
Hope they can repurpose those malls but they are so massive that I doubt it would make economic sense considering the cash required to reinvent them.
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Old 05-09-2020, 06:32 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,141 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25707
Quote:
Originally Posted by shelato View Post
Walmart couldn't make a go of it in Arden Arcade.

The problem for Arden Fair is what do they replace Nordstrom's with? When Sears in the Roseville Galleria folded, they announced plans for a Movie Theater and Bowling Alley to replace it. Demographically that is just a better location than Arden Fair and they were looking when the economy was still strong. Moreover Broadstone in Folsom and the El Dorado Town Center were designed and built out without traditional department store anchors acknowledging the problem of landing anchors. What I am getting at is that I don't see Arden Fair attracting a new department store. At Arden Fair, the existing movie theater near Barnes and Noble folded because of the competition from the remodeled Century and the newer theater with booze and food at Country Club. So I don't think they can copy the Galleria playbook either. Now if you are JCPenny or Sears and you are thinking about filing bankruptcy. What stores do you decide to keep and what stores do you decide to close. My hunch is that in any mall that is missing an anchor, you pull out of. So in the Sacramento region. I think they keep the Galleria and close everything else.

Now if the Arden Fair Mall closes, how much do sales of stores in nearby fall? Empty malls are eye sores. When the rent goes down, they don't have the money to pay for landscaping and security so the area gets much worse quickly. An abandoned mall is that type of thing that becomes a homeless encampment. Which is already a problem in the area of the Arden Fair Mall. If you are the Nordstrom Rack, with only one Nordstrom in the area you might not need three Nordstrom Racks. I am thinking you close the one in the area with the worst demographics.

Now the other issue is what do you replace the Arden Fair Mall with? If I was the City of Sacramento I would be encouraging an Automall (for the sales tax) or you just expand Point West style of zoning, a mixture of office parks and Apartment complexes. I could also see a big box power center sort of like Promenade in Natomas where they have the Target, Barnes and Noble, Best Buy and a Burlington Coat Factory. But City Hall in Sacramento is pretty focused on downtown and tends to ignore everything else. So I could see it limping along as a dead mall the way Country Club Center and Country Club Plaza have kind of lingered on.
The city will just un-incorporate the parts of Arden Arcade that they were quick to annex when they wanted the tax revenue from the Mall.
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Old 05-09-2020, 06:35 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,141 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25707
Quote:
Originally Posted by shelato View Post
Nordstrom announced that its closing its Arden Fair location.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...cid=spartanntp


JCPenney is discussing bankruptcy. Sears isn't doing much better.

Originally because it wasn't doing that well before, I thought Covid 19 would kill off Sunrise. Now I am thinking its going to kill off both Sunrise and Arden Fair. Arden Fair was a huge source of sales tax for the city of Sacramento, that I think is going to go mostly to the Galleria and to a lesser extent to Broadstone in Folsom and the El Dorado Town Center.

Other places that I think might benefit would be Pavillions, Town and Country Village and likely downtown.
The death certificate for Sunrise was written when it was sold to some kind of hedge fund that has a reputation for buying dying malls and then doing no advertising or repairs; they just suck up rents from remaining tenants until they all leave..then they move on.
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Old 05-10-2020, 09:47 AM
 
241 posts, read 223,571 times
Reputation: 302
Quote:
Originally Posted by shelato View Post
If I was the City of Sacramento I would be encouraging an Automall (for the sales tax) ... .

That wouldn't help. Sales taxes on cars are based on the tax rate of the purchaser's home or business address and go to that jurisdiction.
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Old 05-10-2020, 11:20 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,141 posts, read 16,237,227 times
Reputation: 25707
Quote:
Originally Posted by MyNewsLogin View Post
That wouldn't help. Sales taxes on cars are based on the tax rate of the purchaser's home or business address and go to that jurisdiction.
True, but of the base sales tax rate of 7.75% the County or City where the vehicle is sold keeps 1%. Several years ago the City of Sacramento threatened to annex Fulton Ave. so they could get the revenue from car sales but instead they entered into an agreement where the City and the County splits that 1%. The City of Sacramento is famous for annexing any area where they can generate revenue, i.e Arden Mall. and neglecting all unincorporated areas basically turning many of them into ghettos due to their benign neglect.

Here's a comment from Reddit that aptly describes the situation:

Quote:
"Think of unincorporated Sacramento County like a turkey that has already had the good parts taken from it--sure, technically there's meat on the wings, the giblets are edible and you can make soup from the bones, but is it worth the effort to do so?"
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Old 05-11-2020, 11:50 PM
 
1,614 posts, read 1,455,139 times
Reputation: 1426
Quote:
Originally Posted by hd4me View Post
Amazon and the change in buying habits from brick and mortar to online purchases has killed off retail and pushed others to the brink. It's a shame.
I'm thinking the only retail left will be Target, Walmart, Best Buy and Costco.
Hope they can repurpose those malls but they are so massive that I doubt it would make economic sense considering the cash required to reinvent them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
The death certificate for Sunrise was written when it was sold to some kind of hedge fund that has a reputation for buying dying malls and then doing no advertising or repairs; they just suck up rents from remaining tenants until they all leave..then they move on.

I think there are a couple of things coming to roost. The primary source of discretionary income for local government especially for local governments that are mostly built out is sale tax receipts and so local governments in this area have over zoned too much retail in the area with the hope that ease of zoning would make it easier for these sales tax generating industries would land in their jurisdiction. So even if ecommerce didn't take off we have too much of it, especially in areas where the housing stock was built post WW2 to 1985ish. In a lot of the neighborhoods built pre 1990, they are losing their owners occupants, so these neighborhoods no longer have the buying power they did when the housing stock was newer.

I don't think Amazon is going to totally kill off local retail or even malls nor all department stores. While fewer people need to wear suits to work, if your daughter is getting married, you might want to get a suit and make sure it fits well, moreover lots of women have problems finding the right sized bra. For these type of reasons I think there is a market the sales people at mall for things you don't want to get online for at least one mall in the area and possibly 2. One of the problems is that there is a spatial mismatch between where you would build those malls if there were no pre-existing malls in the area and where the current malls are located. I really don't understand why there is a Macy's downtown and at Arden Fair, but none in Folsom or El Dorado Hills. Similarly I think if there were 2 JCPenny's in the area they should be in Roseville and again either Folsom or El Dorado Hills.

There is an article saying that JCP may close a quarter of it stores. Before Nordstrom exited Arden Fair I would have assumed that only the Sunrise store will go, now I am thinking they will exit both Malls and any mall missing two anchors isn't long for this world.

https://www.masslive.com/coronavirus...-shutdown.html


Part of the reason that both Arden Arcade and Citrus Height look aa little long in the tooth is there is too much retail, so too much of it is being occupied by low margin dollar stores and thrift stores. If you recycle some of that excel retail, the remaining players will have incentive to fix up their existing properties ie repave the parking lots paint the buildings and update the landscaping. Additionally if new multi family housing is build in the vicinity of Arden Fair and it commands much higher rents because its new, the owners of older housing stock in the area see real quick the return on investment from fixing up their older properties. Same is true if that happens at Sunrise.
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