this just sucks 400 new covid cases in a single day (school districts, safe)

[animalcrazy]

Originally Posted by MyNewsLogin

All you hear in the news is "FIRE, FIRE, FIRE" while the CDC is showing a steady decrease in the number of deaths: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm. I agree. It is impossible to believe anyone anymore.

Do you think the decrease in deaths is due to the shut down that took place months before? Do you think that bing, there's a rise in cases that bing, there's an instant rise in death?

That's not how this works. Spikes in cases means spikes in deaths, but not for weeks or months. Some people die in days from Covid, some weeks, some moths later. Just looking at current death rates is only one part of the story. You have to look at cases and hospitalizations to see where the death tool points.

It's simple minded twit logic to focus on one and not see the whole picture.

Those low death rates? Proof that social distancing worked. We can not let our guard down here. Just look at those states that opened up too soon. Texas, Florida, California? All in deep trouble because people did not take this seriously.

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by JohnS_15

I can't even with all you people talking about "this is a lie". You just can't get your head around that America has royally screwed the pooch in responding to this pandemic. The blame lies in a lot of places including with the reactions of us - the American public.

It is true that the media reporting on this has been absolutely horrendous with misleading statistics (like "over 100 positive cases confirmed in a single day" when actual fact it was from a lag of positive results from the previous several weeks). The media also misquotes experts and takes things out of context as always reporting every scientific study as an absolute concrete fact of what the virus is doing etc.

But to those saying it doesn't matter the numbers of positive cases and whether they are trending up and down... of course it does. How do you think we are gauging the prevalence of the virus in the community to make decisions on things like sending kids and teachers back into school? What tools do you think we have to follow this thing?

You don't want this virus at any age - but if you are over 60 years old you definitely do not want this thing. It is possible to get this virus down to low levels where it can be more easily managed from an outbreak standpoint. But yes it does require a lot of hard work and everyone buying into the same ideals and working together. And I'm not seeing much evidence of that in this country...

Good post but we can't expect everyone to buy into the same ideas if some of us do not totally believe what we are being led to believe is fact.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by animalcrazy

Those low death rates? Proof that social distancing worked. We can not let our guard down here. Just look at those states that opened up too soon. Texas, Florida, California? All in deep trouble because people did not take this seriously.

Where'd you get that? Everything I have read said that the lower death rates is due to more younger people catching the virus? I do agree with you about people not taking this seriously, as soon as they started openg stuff up it turned into a circus here.

[JohnS_15]

Originally Posted by nmnita

Good post but we can't expect everyone to buy into the same ideas if some of us do not totally believe what we are being led to believe is fact.

What do you feel like you are being led to believe?

You can read through the lines of the media hype and not follow every turn in the rollercoaster we are on and even have doubts in the 100% accuracy of the statistics and still you should find yourself in a position where you can comprehend that we are dealing with a very dangerous virus that is a serious threat to public health in this country and around the world. You should also be able to understand that staying away from other people wherever possible especially indoors - wearing a face covering when needing to interact with others - and keeping up good hand washing and hygiene practices is the most effective way to stop this virus from spreading around so much.

I do expect everyone to buy into those basic things because those facts are indisputable. If Americans are unable to do these things it will be to this country's detriment - both from an economic perspective and from an international influence and freedom of mobility perspective.

[NewToCA]

We have been pretty much staying at home and the close by environments because my wife and I are both over 65 and we have a vulnerable adult child living with us full time.

So we decided to have a change of scenery and went down to the Capitol to walk around the place and the adjacent park.

What a mistake. The behavior was very much in violation of what is preached right inside that building. Many folks were jogging around the sidewalk and not allowing for any distance at all, even when we clearly moved over to try and avoid them. Very few were wearing masks, and the huffing that comes with jogging causes more expulsion. On top of that, folks were just jumping on those scooters you rent for short periods of time, and I doubt very much that wiping them down was taking place between use.

It was easy to see why we are having a significant problem, it was happening right outside of the building telling us to behave so things can open up.

[JobHunter2018]

Originally Posted by roodd279

You think 300 or 400 new cases is "inflated?" It's laughably low. Here's why:

Guess the death rate. Really. Guess. No one knows. Latest guess has us ~.25%. Close enough for this math.
At 0.25% - and 100 people dead in Sacramento county (I'm rounding up) - that's 40000 sick people - right? Not 7000 as confirmed. That's a 5x "mistake" but not on purpose - it's just data. Do the math. Think the death rate is 0.5%? Great. It means you have 20K sick. Think that early USC report was right - at 0.1%? It means you have a whopping 100 thousand people sick. In the worst (or is it best?) case - 100K sick - you've got 1.4 million to go - that's a lot. It means you're just getting started, and if you think 400 new cases is alot, wait til next week. Every populated area will follow the same trajectory - no town has changed the trajectory...just the date.
Go bigger - California 8000 dead people and 400K official cases. At 1% dead - a ludicrously high number - that's 800K sick. A more realistic number is 2 to 4 million sick - 10x the official number. That's why it's amusing people are whining about the inflated numbers and inaccurate death counts. Prove it wrong. Use numbers and a calculator. It's not wrong unless you accept some other - worse - alternatives.

It means Sacramento county has just 7% or so sick - same as California at large - that's no coincidence.

Back to 400 in a day - for each person that dies, 500 or so are sick. 18 days ago. 13 are dead in the last 7 days - let's call it 2 a day - average - that's 1000 sick - 18 days ago. Not 300. And it's worse now.

Don't throw in some bunk about inflated death rates. If HALF were outright fabrications, it would not change anything I just wrote...except the date. People - this is real - it's here. Accept it and move on. Wear a mask. Avoid people. Wash your hands.

We're definitely undercounting it in California. Anti-Trump politics is not worth forcing everyone home based on buffed up numbers and the economic devastation that this would entail. Plus Trump isn't going to help us if we did go there. It makes bigly short-term economic sense to keep people at work at all costs (though California isn't going to that extreme like other states are) and little political gain to overcount the numbers just to make Trump look bad when they don't even need to. In the end an overinflated COVID-19 count looks bad on California first and Trump second. But also in the end a failure to lock down the state will do more long-term damage than locking it down until this virus goes away.

So yeah, expect Newsom's administration to undercount things just like everyone else is doing, because like them he doesn't want to look bad. No one is going to be the first to go under the bus on the possibility that it'll run over the Teflon Man in the White House.

[mikefong123]

Honestly, I don't know what is fact, what is fiction....All I know is, I DON'T WANT IT. Hell, if I don't even want the flu and I don't want pneumonia, why the hell do I want this? All I care about is being as safe as possible and I hope others do the same or stay the hell away from me.

[Ludachris]

Originally Posted by JohnS_15

But yes it does require a lot of hard work and everyone buying into the same ideals and working together.

Pretty much impossible in the age of social media - we live an an era dominated by misinformation campaigns, rhetoric, scapegoating, and sensationalism. Maybe more so than any other time in history due to how quickly information travels now. Try and tell someone the sky is blue and they'll tell you why you're wrong, attack your credibility and anyone else who agrees with you, and then explain why you're the reason why this nation is on the verge of collapse. Sometimes it feels like we live in some sick version of the Truman Show and are one episode away of ending up in the Handmaid's Tale.

[msgsing]

Yup. It is amazing. We live in an environment that has seen a technological information revolution. Media is global and all pervasive. And yet the dark side of this revolution is the staggering amount of misinformation that creates alternate universes of information. What is true and what is false?

[mixxalot]

Herd immunity is needed. Sweden and Holland had no lockdowns and no mask wearing and did better than most of the planet with COVID.