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Old 07-20-2020, 12:43 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,955 posts, read 16,611,851 times
Reputation: 26487

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This is just awful what the heck is going on?

Quote:
Sacramento County reported almost 400 new lab-confirmed cases of the coronavirus in a single day, boosting the pandemic’s all-time infection total past 7,300 as a month-long surge in virus activity continues. The county’s totals for current hospitalization and number of patients requiring intensive care also shot to new all-time highs.

The county added 391 new cases in a Monday morning update to its COVID-19 data dashboard, breaking a previous record of 333 set July 4.

New cases have been growing sharply but hadn’t exceeded 300 any day between July 4 and Monday. Since the holiday, the county’s case total for the entire pandemic has risen from 4,004 to 7,326, an explosive increase of about 83% in 16 days.
https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavi...=pushly_607754
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Old 07-20-2020, 01:16 PM
 
Location: Sacramento CA
584 posts, read 131,907 times
Reputation: 1232
Do you know they are counting antibody results as new "cases". So if you had Covid-19 three months ago and recovered and are not currently ill or infected but you test positive for the antibodies in your system, that is a "new" case. Which is a lie. You aren't infected. It is NOT a new case. It is a 3 month old case.

I had generally trusted the experts to be honest with us. Then I learned that there were Florida labs reporting 100% positive (virtually impossible) with zero negative test results (completely impossible).

Then I learned that a Florida lab listed a motorcycle accident fatality as a Covid 19 death.

I no longer trust the agencies to tell me the truth. I know they are bald faced liars. So when I read there are 400 new Covid 19 cases in Sacramento in a single day, I just assume they are lying to me.

It is a lie. Don't believe it.
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Old 07-20-2020, 01:41 PM
 
165 posts, read 30,758 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by Igor Blevin View Post
Do you know they are counting antibody results as new "cases". So if you had Covid-19 three months ago and recovered and are not currently ill or infected but you test positive for the antibodies in your system, that is a "new" case. Which is a lie. You aren't infected. It is NOT a new case. It is a 3 month old case.

I had generally trusted the experts to be honest with us. Then I learned that there were Florida labs reporting 100% positive (virtually impossible) with zero negative test results (completely impossible).

Then I learned that a Florida lab listed a motorcycle accident fatality as a Covid 19 death.

I no longer trust the agencies to tell me the truth. I know they are bald faced liars. So when I read there are 400 new Covid 19 cases in Sacramento in a single day, I just assume they are lying to me.

It is a lie. Don't believe it.
I stopped by that forum and ... they definitely posted wayyy more than were real. One report showed a medical group posted about 98% positive and it was really about 9% of the ones tested that were positive.
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Old 07-20-2020, 01:55 PM
 
Location: Sacramento CA
584 posts, read 131,907 times
Reputation: 1232
It is important to be able to trust the experts. When they prove to be liars, it leaves the door open to people who spread conspiracy theories. Once you lose trust, you can't get it back. I don't trust them further than I can spit any more. Don't lie to me. Don't "cry wolf" ten times and then think you have credibility and I will believe you.

I don't know who to believe anymore. Covid 19 is a health crisis. It should not have become politicized and weaponized. There is a reason they are reporting daily cases and not daily deaths. The number of daily deaths is still low or they would be screaming about that.

I don't trust them anymore and I don't know where to find the simple truth anymore.
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Old 07-20-2020, 02:12 PM
 
245 posts, read 229,551 times
Reputation: 307
All you hear in the news is "FIRE, FIRE, FIRE" while the CDC is showing a steady decrease in the number of deaths: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm. I agree. It is impossible to believe anyone anymore.
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Old 07-20-2020, 03:33 PM
 
1,456 posts, read 337,058 times
Reputation: 2606
You think 300 or 400 new cases is "inflated?" It's laughably low. Here's why:

Guess the death rate. Really. Guess. No one knows. Latest guess has us ~.25%. Close enough for this math.
At 0.25% - and 100 people dead in Sacramento county (I'm rounding up) - that's 40000 sick people - right? Not 7000 as confirmed. That's a 5x "mistake" but not on purpose - it's just data. Do the math. Think the death rate is 0.5%? Great. It means you have 20K sick. Think that early USC report was right - at 0.1%? It means you have a whopping 100 thousand people sick. In the worst (or is it best?) case - 100K sick - you've got 1.4 million to go - that's a lot. It means you're just getting started, and if you think 400 new cases is alot, wait til next week. Every populated area will follow the same trajectory - no town has changed the trajectory...just the date.
Go bigger - California 8000 dead people and 400K official cases. At 1% dead - a ludicrously high number - that's 800K sick. A more realistic number is 2 to 4 million sick - 10x the official number. That's why it's amusing people are whining about the inflated numbers and inaccurate death counts. Prove it wrong. Use numbers and a calculator. It's not wrong unless you accept some other - worse - alternatives.

It means Sacramento county has just 7% or so sick - same as California at large - that's no coincidence.

Back to 400 in a day - for each person that dies, 500 or so are sick. 18 days ago. 13 are dead in the last 7 days - let's call it 2 a day - average - that's 1000 sick - 18 days ago. Not 300. And it's worse now.

Don't throw in some bunk about inflated death rates. If HALF were outright fabrications, it would not change anything I just wrote...except the date. People - this is real - it's here. Accept it and move on. Wear a mask. Avoid people. Wash your hands.
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:10 AM
 
1,800 posts, read 1,518,879 times
Reputation: 1761
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
This is just awful what the heck is going on?
If you look at the positivity rates, they peaked locally at 7% on July 16th and they have been falling for the past 4 days.

Because of the outbreaks in Florida, Texas et al, there have been testing supply shortages and I think that may be impacting the ability to process and release testing results in a timely fashion. If you look at July 17th and July 18th , they only announced 116 and 182 new cases each of those days in Sacramento County, which was below the trend line of between 225 - 250 cases a day, so I am thinking that some of yesterday's results were just the consequence that hadn't been processed.

The FDA just started permitting pooled testing, as that gets rolled out, that should address some of the testing supply problems.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...ing-diagnostic
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
35,955 posts, read 16,611,851 times
Reputation: 26487
Quote:
Originally Posted by Igor Blevin View Post
Do you know they are counting antibody results as new "cases". So if you had Covid-19 three months ago and recovered and are not currently ill or infected but you test positive for the antibodies in your system, that is a "new" case. Which is a lie. You aren't infected. It is NOT a new case. It is a 3 month old case.

I had generally trusted the experts to be honest with us. Then I learned that there were Florida labs reporting 100% positive (virtually impossible) with zero negative test results (completely impossible).

Then I learned that a Florida lab listed a motorcycle accident fatality as a Covid 19 death.

I no longer trust the agencies to tell me the truth. I know they are bald faced liars. So when I read there are 400 new Covid 19 cases in Sacramento in a single day, I just assume they are lying to me.

It is a lie. Don't believe it.
No, I didn't know that could you provide a source for it?
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:49 AM
 
1,800 posts, read 1,518,879 times
Reputation: 1761
Quote:
Originally Posted by Igor Blevin View Post
It is important to be able to trust the experts. When they prove to be liars, it leaves the door open to people who spread conspiracy theories. Once you lose trust, you can't get it back. I don't trust them further than I can spit any more. Don't lie to me. Don't "cry wolf" ten times and then think you have credibility and I will believe you.

I don't know who to believe anymore. Covid 19 is a health crisis. It should not have become politicized and weaponized. There is a reason they are reporting daily cases and not daily deaths. The number of daily deaths is still low or they would be screaming about that.

I don't trust them anymore and I don't know where to find the simple truth anymore.
But they are posting the daily death rates. Its tab under the cases by episode date. Since we lifted the first lockdown, both the number of cases and the number of deaths has been trending up, it takes about 3 weeks from infection to death, so the death rate lags the increase in cases, both both were heading up, that is why locally they are locking somethings back down.

https://sac-epidemiology.maps.arcgis...f834079f618dad

Both the left and the right did politicize covid. In Georgia where the governor banned local communities from requiring masks, that was incredibly stupid. When the public health experts said that protesting to open the economy was dangerous, but protesting racism was permissive, I think they overstepped there boundaries when they stopped telling you what the risks were involved in protesting and instead tried to tell us what risks we should or should not take, that too was politicizing covid and was also really incredibly stupid because it made the public health authorities seem like political hacks using the virus to advance their own private political agendas

But a big part of the problem is that Covid is a really new disease, that spreads really quickly and can kill people quickly and we don't have many effective treatments yet. Initially the guidance for this disease was based upon how other diseases were handled, but as we learned more about how this disease works we realized that some things don't work as well with this disease and we have to change our approach.

The initial concern with wearing surgical masks is that we thought this disease was much more rapidly transmitted by contact, so the thought was that if people were wearing masks, there would be cross contamination issues if people reused the masks. Additionally the virus is much smaller than the pours in the non n95 masks, so they weren't thought to be effective, so the initial guidance was to not wear masks. Subsequent research found that risk of infection is dependent on viral load. While there might be some covid on surfaces so its still worth washing your hands, the viral concentration isn't that high so the risk contact transmission of wearing masks isn't that high. so that became less of a concern. Additionally reasearch from asia where people were wearing masks, showed much less transmission in those countries which again helped to change the guidance here.
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Old 07-21-2020, 11:11 AM
 
Location: Bella Vista, Ark
76,393 posts, read 89,276,887 times
Reputation: 47227
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
This is just awful what the heck is going on?
We all realize the situation isn't as good as we had hoped, but what those "always"negative people do not seem to get into their heads are 2 things: a huge number of those who post positive have to symptoms and some studies are showing those who are asymptomatic may not even be contagious. And even it the numbers are high the number who get really sick are not that high.

No one looks forward to getting COVID or seeing friends and family affected but the numbers are being taken by many at face value. Also it is obvious no one seems to have an answer as to what to do. We have to go on with our lives: we have to keep the economy going and we have to life live to its fullest but use common sense.
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