Sacramento is the No. 2 destination in the country for home searchers considering relocating to a new city

[49erfan916]

Lol I was telling people in the Phoenix forum that the two places I call home are the two major hotspots in the US.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by shelato

If housing prices are going up in Sacramento and rents are falling in SF, there is a point where prices will have equilibrated enough where people will stop moving from the Bay Area to Sacramento.

https://www.sfgate.com/realestate/sl...ent-204756.php


Second we don't know what the true vacancy rate is in Sacramento. Right now the covid eviction moratorium was put in place when unemployment in Sacramento was closer to 4% than 14%. When the employment rates were strong, the vacancy rates were low. But there is a lot of people here living in an apartment that they can't afford to pay rent on because say they work at a gym that is closed. If and when those people are evicted, the vacancy rate in Sacramento will shoot up and rents will plunge. I am a little curious what happens to the landlords who need the rent money from their tenants to pay the mortgage payments on their rentals. We also don't know what the true number of nonperforming loans the banks are currently carrying on the books. When the banks are forced to start writing those loans off, that is when we will start seeing the foreclosures and I could see that driving the local housing market downward.

Third the State of California drives the local economy. The unemployment rate has been high enough were sales taxes and personal and corporate income taxes are going to be down a lot. Historically this has meant hiring freezes, furloughs and no cost of living adjustments for state employees. We haven't really seen that yet so I am wondering how long the State can keep spending money it doesn't have coming in. When that occurs I think its going to hit (I am guessing next year) I think that is going to put downward pressure on local housing prices.

I talked to an apartment manager the other day, she said they had a large number of people move out in March and early April, but the following month they filled all the vacancies and now have a waiting list, she said most of the people moving in are remote workers from the bay area or silicon valley. I know that's anecdotal but it confirms what a realtor friend told me - good houses in desirable areas are selling over over list price within days, and she said that it's all remote workers, or people from the bay area who decided to retire early. So I think this housing market is going to be hard to predict for awhile

[shelato]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

I talked to an apartment manager the other day, she said they had a large number of people move out in March and early April, but the following month they filled all the vacancies and now have a waiting list, she said most of the people moving in are remote workers from the bay area or silicon valley. I know that's anecdotal but it confirms what a realtor friend told me - good houses in desirable areas are selling over over list price within days, and she said that it's all remote workers, or people from the bay area who decided to retire early. So I think this housing market is going to be hard to predict for awhile

I was surprised that anyone was moving out. With the eviction moratorium even if you can't pay your rent, you still get to stay in your current place, but if you moved what new landlord is going to take a chance on a tenant with a spotty employment /credit history when they can't evict for non payment of rent, so moving seems like a way to increase the odds of being homeless. So I assumed that the eviction moratorium just froze up the housing market.

I am also curious how the eviction moratorium gets unwound. If you haven't paid rent in 6 months because your place of employment was closed due to Covid, how are you expected to pay back that back rent when you don't have this money? On the other hand if you are a landlord who couldn't pay your mortgage because your tenants weren't paying rent and don't have the money to pay their back rent how are you going to pay back your back mortgage payments? Do these landlords just file bankruptcy and have their properties repossessed by the lenders?

I don't know who is going to get stuck holding the bag for the lost rents and lost mortgage payments but someone is. But if it does wipe out some landlords and we have a wave of foreclosures that would be bad.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by shelato

I was surprised that anyone was moving out. With the eviction moratorium even if you can't pay your rent, you still get to stay in your current place, but if you moved what new landlord is going to take a chance on a tenant with a spotty employment /credit history when they can't evict for non payment of rent, so moving seems like a way to increase the odds of being homeless. So I assumed that the eviction moratorium just froze up the housing market.

I am also curious how the eviction moratorium gets unwound. If you haven't paid rent in 6 months because your place of employment was closed due to Covid, how are you expected to pay back that back rent when you don't have this money? On the other hand if you are a landlord who couldn't pay your mortgage because your tenants weren't paying rent and don't have the money to pay their back rent how are you going to pay back your back mortgage payments? Do these landlords just file bankruptcy and have their properties repossessed by the lenders?

I don't know who is going to get stuck holding the bag for the lost rents and lost mortgage payments but someone is. But if it does wipe out some landlords and we have a wave of foreclosures that would be bad.

From what I understand, it's a moratorium on the court eviction process during the state of emergency and 90 days after it ends. Landlords still serve eviction papers on the delinquent tenant and the rent accrues, and when the freeze is lifted anyone who has not paid the amount of rent due will be evicted and will have a lien on property and wages for the amount of rent owed. Evictions show up on background checks for 7 years, monetary liens for 10 years. Having an eviction or landlord money lien will pretty much guarantee that you won't find a decent place to rent for a very long time. That is how the apartment manager I talked to explained it to me, and she said that the people who moved out did not owe back rent but she did agree to let them break their lease so they could move out without consequences.

After posting this I found this article:

The Judicial Council of California on Thursday voted to end the statewide eviction moratorium next month, reopening courts to landlords and pressuring Gov. Gavin Newsom and lawmakers to address a potential housing crisis. Courts will be allowed to process evictions after midnight, Sept. 1, although a patchwork of more than 100 local laws could prevent delinquent tenants from being displaced. Most Bay Area counties and cities have passed renter protections during the coronavirus pandemic, although many are scheduled to expire in August. https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/...ontent=curated