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Old 10-19-2008, 11:07 PM
 
1 posts, read 3,583 times
Reputation: 10

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Hello,

I am trying to buy a house in a safe neigbhorhood on a tight budget ($150-$170K). I have been watching the prices come down on Zillow's graphs. I waited a month and I see Roseville and West Sac are going up!!!

Everyone keeps telling me to wait...the houses will get cheaper. All the brokers keep telling me they are going up.

If I get an inheritance soon, I can pay cash for the house, so mortgage rates don't concern me.

Any insights? Money with me is tight as I am raising a family.
Thanks
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Old 10-20-2008, 02:07 AM
 
1,020 posts, read 1,882,607 times
Reputation: 394
The median price of homes sold in an area can go up for two different reasons. First it can go up because on repeat sales of the same home at different times, the price of the home has gone up on the second sale. But the repeated median price of homes can also go up because the composition of sales in the market has changed during the reporting period. If in January most small one person condos are sold and in Feburary, you sell a Mansion, even in a market that is declining the reported median sales price will go up. If the composition of the homes sold in the two different reporting periods are different, the median price of homes sold can be a misleading indicator.

In West Sac, especially in the 95605, area, you have very few homes sold each month and the composition of the homes can vary greatly. In the gated lighthouse development community, you have very expensive homes many on the Sacramento River itself. Outside of the gated community you also have some very inexpensive homes in the area that still has gang problems. In that same general vicinity you also have some fairly expensive lofts.

If a few houses in the light house development or a couple of lofts sell in a given month, the median in that zip will go up. If its mostly homes in the older part of the area code that sell in a given month, the median will go down.

Given the large number of foreclosures in Sacramento and given the fact that overall in the general Sacramento region prices are still going down, my hunch is that what is cause the zillow price to shoot around so much is that median is being pushed around by a few sales. There is probably only about 10 sales a month in that zip code. When there is so few sales each month, it doesn't take that much of a change in the composition of sales to shift around the median.
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Old 10-20-2008, 06:33 PM
 
Location: Mokelumne Hill, CA & El Pescadero, BCS MX.
6,957 posts, read 22,228,155 times
Reputation: 6468
Don't even think about using Zillow as a reference point for current market values. The local real estate guy or gal is going to be much more well informed than Zillow.
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Old 10-20-2008, 07:38 PM
 
37 posts, read 119,767 times
Reputation: 20
Thanks ubu for all your info. I am also looking around Roseville and other areas.

Also: I would rather not ask a realtor as it would not be an unbiased answer.

Does anyone know where I can get up-to-date information on the Sacramento area as far as if prices are still declining? Someone also told me that Zillow is 2 months behind and the reason for the spike is that even though the graph is reporting Oct, in reality it is Aug. And that August always has a spike in sales simply because it is a popular month.

However, I would love to see a graph of current declines if possible.

Many brokers have told me it is the bottom for over a year.

Thanks!!!
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Old 10-20-2008, 08:07 PM
 
406 posts, read 1,586,883 times
Reputation: 206
The Sacramento Association of realtors releases information monthly by zip code here.

Sacramento Area REALTORS® | About Us | Statistics

Lyon real estate provides some information here

Pricing Trends

The Sacramento Bee lets you look up real estate sales here.

Sacramento Business, Housing Market News | Sacramento Bee

You can also look up past sale prices for specific homes on zillow, when you look for property tax information.

I think these tools are pretty useful for getting a general sense of which areas you would be interested in. But I do see some value in dealing with real estate agent when you finally sure you are actually ready to buy.

Most of the databases, I quoted are relying on more dated information sources, they are getting sales prices from property tax records. The advantage that a real estate agent has is better more up to date data. Sales are usually posted first on the mls before the county recorder's office releases the information. There is data that is available to a realtor on the mls, the mls doesn't release to the general public.


The other thing a realtor can have is local knowledge about an area. There is a condo community off Fulton Avenue called Woodside. Sometimes the local creek backs up. Some of the condos in the complex are subject to flooding on a fairly regular basis, some in the complex never get flooded. The realtors in that area can tell you which condos in the complex you might want to avoid and which ones are worth buying into.

When you buy a property you are going to need it inspected to make sure there is no dry rot and no termites. The realtors who have dealt with these inspectors regularly for a long time are going to be able to tell you who is reputable and who is not.

Lastly when you know how much you have to spend and what areas you are looking to live in, a realtor can actually alert you to good deals. They can earn their commision by doing a lot of the leg work for you.

When you put an offer on a property, the realtor has the most recent comparable sales information. That is useful when you are trying to bargain down the sales price on a property you are interested in.

I think these other publically available tools are useful for screening out neighborhoods that you aren't interested in, but when you are finally ready to buy and you know for sure what neighborhood you are most interested in, I think its worthwhile for most folks to still have a realtor.

Lastly no, I am not a realtor.
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Old 10-20-2008, 09:33 PM
 
Location: Placer County, Ca
111 posts, read 461,474 times
Reputation: 51
Polkadot123- I also have found the Zillow prices somewhat off, especially in areas with a lot of different housing types (ie not cookie cutter subdivisions). Where I see a major part of the market selling is in the lower price range, as it seems there were many folks that did not, could not or would not participate in the crazy high flying days in the past. Having said that I am also pleased to see there are still many properties in that low range, yes in Roseville, for how long or how low I can't say.
Until you have the funds to purchase, I would recommend you do a broad searc now to find the neighborhood(s) that will suit your needs best so that you are focused when you are ready to buy. You can also start building a realationship with a real esate agent, who can provide you with the sales numbers you need to make a good purchase decision and help you spot those great deals.
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Old 10-21-2008, 10:24 AM
 
2,652 posts, read 8,557,289 times
Reputation: 1915
Don't use Zillow. Also don't use one months worth of data to decide if the market is going up or down. It's coming down, and is only going to get worse.
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Old 10-25-2008, 02:26 AM
 
Location: Former land of plenty
3,212 posts, read 1,638,994 times
Reputation: 2017
I believe the opposite. Retirees prefer warm weather, and Sacramento has that in spades. The baby boomers are reaching retirement age, and the word that California is cheap again will perk up some ears in the midwest.

BTW, I put in an offer on a house Friday.
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Old 10-25-2008, 09:01 PM
 
2,652 posts, read 8,557,289 times
Reputation: 1915
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlongTheI-5 View Post
I believe the opposite. Retirees prefer warm weather, and Sacramento has that in spades. The baby boomers are reaching retirement age, and the word that California is cheap again will perk up some ears in the midwest.

BTW, I put in an offer on a house Friday.
If that's the case why are Arizona's markets some of the worst in the country?
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Old 10-26-2008, 01:50 AM
 
2 posts, read 5,120 times
Reputation: 10
Why the rush to buy? Why not rent? Placer and El Dorado County are both excellent areas to live. in most of Sacramento county, you must deal with flooding issues. Not so in the foothills. With the economy in the state it is in, I believe prices will continue to drop for some time. I have seen many lovely homes for rent at reasonable prices. I believe when one doesn't know an area, it is best to look around, take your time, get a feel for the neighborhood, ask around.Park your cash in something safe. WAIT- these houses aren't going anywhere, and besides, let someone else take care of the headaches ownership entails. I've been buying and selling homes for over 25 years. Buy low, sell high has always worked for me. Believe-you-me, you will start to see some drastic changes in prices soon. No matter what President is in office. Good Luck!
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