Help. Offer on house in 95834 -W of 5, Windsong lake - good or mistake? (Sacramento: real estate)

[Lakecruiser]

Hey, I need some expert help and opinions.

I found a place on windsong street, 95834, west of 5, on the lake inside windsong st. I am in contract now, and have very little time to research neighborhood beyond my eyes, and limited time in the area.
I am looking for opinions on the location. I know that eastern 95834 is sketchy, but this area is newer homes. I want to hear from those who live there, or near enough to know the area.

Please reply with specifics, and don't hold back on the good the bad and the ugly.
Also, give it to me straight about that area...I can't do anything about the apartments 5 miles away.

Thanks in advance. Replies ASAP please.
Lakecruiser.

[Lakecruiser]

I am posting another to include the name natomas so it shows up on search.

[edwardius]

In general the part of Natomas west of I-5 are doing better than the parts of Natomas East of I-5.

First Natomas has a big flood risk. The levies in the area are below federal and state standards. If you buy in the area, you will have to buy flood insurance. Additionally since you are getting insured after the area has been formally designated high risk area for flooding, the premiums are going to be much more expensive. I would ask your insurance agent so contact your insurance agent for an estimate of that cost.

Second Natomas overall has been hit pretty hard by the real estate downturn and I am not sure how much worse it will get. I live in Park Natomas and my neighborhood continues to see the owner occupants get foreclosed upon and after the homes are resold, a lot of them are coming back to the market as rental units. The neighborhood is in transition. I don't know how bad its going to get, but there is talk about putting in a Goodwill into the location of a former Border's bookstore. The crime problem is also much worse today, than when I bought here, although increased police patrols seems to have help since last summer when things were really bad.

In Sacramento there is a mixed income ordinance to provide housing for poor people. On Kokomo, it created an area that looks nice from the outside, but increased crime in that area. West of I-5, I know the city put some of the owner occupied mixed income housing, but exactly where escapes me. I would like to think that is working better than the Kokomo project, but I don't know. You might want to do some of your own research on that problem.

Most of N. Natomas itself is pretty new. The home I am living in was built in 2001. That hasn't prevented the neigbhood from going downhill in this recession. The problem as I see it, is that under the Natomas plan, this area is supposed to be really dense. The area built a lot of condo and apartment projects to meet the density goals. During the housing boom, the condo projects were mostly owner occupied. But the condos are losing their owner occupants, and the apartment complexes as they stop being brand new are attracting a less wealthy group of renters. That in turn means that test scores are falling in the local schools and the neighborhood itself is becoming a less desirable place to live. That has spread the problem to the local single family homes which are now are losing a lot of their owner occupants.

So far proximity to downtown isn't really saving the neighborhood.

If you were to buy today, you probably will be paying much less than I did to get into this neighborhood. If things don't get much worse, than buying right now will probably be looked at as a really shrewd decision. But, I am not sure that things won't get much worse. For the past 6 months or so, I thought things in the neighborhood should be close to bottoming out, but that hasn't been the case.

To know what is going on in the neighborhood, you might spend sometime reading the Natomas Buzz here.

natomas buzz

[Lakecruiser]

UBU,
Thanks a lot. Very comprehensive; very much in my wheelhouse of thinking and research. I will tell you that I canceled my offer this afternoon. Well BEFORE I read your excellent post.
My reasoning (well within a time period of inspection contingency) came down to location. I know that the "house" was fine/safe/nice/in good neighborhood - but within a mile or two east, it was dicey. Arco Arena, leading into apartments. I was buying a foreclosure, and my quote on a foreclosure is: "a foreclosure is AS-IS as AS-IS gets".
so, "buy it fast, and own it all fast", no disclosures beyond paid inspections, "Natomas" having more forum pages than I could get through in a couple of hours, and continued uncertainty with a trend of high priced beautifully built homes going for near rock bottom prices, and allowing purchase by rock bottom buyers, gave me a "wait and see" attitude.
I am much wiser than less than a week ago when I made an offer.

Now...opinion. Bottom line, the only reason there are "good" and "bad" neighborhoods is because PEOPLE choose to make them that way by their behavior.
A house on the beach should cost a ton of money. A house West of I5 should not be considered a "whew" house, while that exact house 3.5 miles east is a nightmare.

As far as the "flood" question, it bothered me. Buying in Earthquake, tornado, bulk snow, hurricane, or 120 degree Vegas is one thing..you know what you are getting, and those things are either known commodities, or unpredictable to an extent. Flooding, on the other hand is there 24/7. It's there. Natomas is under water unless there are levees. When it rains enough...and the levees can't do their job..it floods. Now it may not happen, and you can buy flood insurance, (quote after 1/1/09 $1200/year) but to me it seems like being a beekeeper who is allergic to bee stings. You can increase your odds of not being stung by not being a bee keeper.
It may never flood, but if it does I knew I wouldn't be the only one looking for a motel that night.
Now for the good news. I almost bought the house. Came real close. The only thing really stopping me was the "wait and see". I bet when things relax a bit, I will be lamenting a good deal lost. But, right now..it was the right decision. The homes built in the area I looked at are magnificent, and the streets are full of SUV's and good landscaping. It was leaving the Drawbridge of Camelot that was a consideration, and wondering if the moat will overflow.
Thanks again. I'm betting that things curve up soon. There are still good buyers being priced out by so-called expensive areas with sellers who are listing like it is 2005..so you may get some quality buyers who move in and won't take crap from blockbusters looking to trash a good neighborhood. IMHO only.

LakeCruiser.


I encourage other posters on this subject.

[Lakecruiser]

Oh, also...in the interest of full disclosure:
I never traveled to this house I offered on. Never saw it with my eyes.
I used google earth, realtor.com, this forum, a zip code spotter, a website with zip code stats from demographics, to price history to build history to you name it, found a great local realtor online, called the utilities to see what the power bill was in general, and scanned the surrouding areas for infrastructure.
Oh, and pictures and virtual tour of the house provided by my realtor. I live 600 miles away now, but once I passed through Sacramento on way to Tahoe for decades. I saw El Dorado Hills with just hills - ha ha. I learned of the flood consideratio from this forum, and called an insurance agent in the area. I did all this in a matter of days. I had never heard the word "Natomas" before Obama put his hand on the bible, and now I think I could write a page or two for a magazine on it. I know you guys live there, and I thank you for your opinions and insight. Given all my research, I think I came pretty close to the truth. I will never offer sight unseen again - especially on a foreclosure.
Gosh bless the Internet.

Lakecruiser.

[edwardius]

Good luck with it.