Hurricane Alex-Texas Bound? (Houston, San Antonio, Laredo: rating, area, build)

[charlie_paige]

Thanks for the info! My husband went through Floyd while he was still at the Academy, and we went through Isabel together in DC, which was very interesting. We didn't have any damage, but a tree fell on the townhouse next door, and in the street, so we couldn't leave the neighborhood, but it wasn't a big deal. We didn't even lose power. I love a good storm, so I will be checking the weather often for updates!

This will be a first for the kids; they have not been through a good storm in their memory because CA has pretty tame weather.

[scuba steve]

Sweet. Hope it rains a lot here!

[xsa210tx]

Just saw Mike Osterage of KSAT on the news. He says the storm track has shifted north.

As the days progress near landfall, they'll have storm updates from NOAA every 6 hours (I believe) so keep tuned to the news!

[AnthonySA]

Thanks for all the kind words y'all I'm glad to bring the latest info.

Since 4 AM the forecast track hasn't changed much. The NHC is still calling for a Brownsville landfall Thursday morning. For San Antonio, scenario 1 and 2 appears the most likely based from my previous post.

One thing that I'm getting increasingly concerned about is the threat for tremendous flooding from San Antonio on south.

[SnappyBob]

I'm supposed to go camping up around Utopia Friday, Saturday & Sunday. I wonder if the rains will be heavey that far north. Swollen rivers could be a real problem in the area where we will be.

[AnthonySA]

The heaviest rain would occur on Thursday, and maybe even Friday if the storm slows down. By then we'll have a much clearer picture where the flooding will be.

[gy2020]

Here's the latest satellite imagery as of 4 pm today.



There appears to be a little indentation where the oil spill is located.

[AnthonySA]

Thank you all for again for all the kind words and rep comments

Models have flipped once again favoring a more southerly track just south of the border. If this track which lines up with scenario 2 verified, we still could see heavy rains given the size and ample moisture available inside of the storm. Again, scenario 2 means we wouldn't see hurricane force winds, but we'd still see heavy rain and possibly isolated tornadoes from the outer bands of Alex. Model agreement is increasing mainly due to the amount of time between now and landfall decreasing.

However, it's possible for the model consensus to flip to another location again. The NHC has summoned a very thorough flight path for the Air Force Reconnaissance flight through the storm this evening and all it's data will be ingested for tonight's model runs. I'll make a post around 2 AM tonight with the latest analysis on the projected storm path.

EDIT: I'd like to note that Alex is stationary right now, which means could buy up more time to intensify greater than currently projected. However, this would also buy time for the upper level ridge over the Great Plains to build favoring a more southerly track into Mexico. Again, I'll let you know tonight what the models think.

[JerichoHW]

Good work Anthony, deep through analysis. Did you see that more models are turning to Texas now Yikes!

[dakotamidnight]

Is Alex related to the rain and storms we had tonight? Saw a nice cloud earlier with the beginnings of a tornado near windcrest earlier tonight - thankfully it dissipated.