Why do you think San Antonio has fallen so far behind in job growth? (Austin: college, wages)

[L210]

Originally Posted by teenwolf80

SA meaning the metro area. Which in 2010 was 2.07 million and as of this writing is at 2.2 million.

I didn't see those predictions in the early 2000s because I wasn't interested in looking at them in high school. All I remember is that researchers were correct in predicting that Hispanics would become the largest minority group because my Spanish teacher mentioned it. Even if I were to take your word on that, it still doesn't prove anything because projecting trends into the next year is a lot easier than making predictions more than 10 years out. The recession was predicted before it came about.

[teenwolf80]

Originally Posted by L210

Um, you're comparing the total number of jobs in 2010 to the total number of jobs in 2011. All that says is that there was job growth in San Antonio. It does not say that the job growth rate increased or that it's greater than that of other major cities in Texas.

Ohmigod, what? You asked why did job growth slow, I simply posted the data that showed job growth increased from the year over.

[teenwolf80]

Originally Posted by L210

I didn't see those predictions in the early 2000s because I wasn't interested in looking at them in high school. All I remember is that researchers were correct in predicting that Hispanics would become the largest minority group because my Spanish teacher mentioned it. Even if I were to take your word on that, it still doesn't prove anything because projecting trends into the next year is a lot easier than making predictions more than 10 years out. The recession was predicted before it came about.

Yes, multiple data groups prediction incredibly low population estimates.

Forecasting the weather a week in advance is tough. Trying to speculate job growth is another animal itself.

I could list all the various industries in SA adding jobs, from medical and financial to oil and technology. That's not including the as to be expected military and hospitality industries or even our rising green jobs industry.

I don't care what a list says, the future is incredibly bright for SA.

[L210]

Originally Posted by teenwolf80

Ohmigod, what? You asked why did job growth slow, I simply posted the data that showed job growth increased from the year over.

You either have job loss, stagnation, or job growth. Having job growth is not the same as having job growth increase. If City A added 100,000 jobs in 2010 and 50,000 jobs in 2011, it had job growth both years, but it did not increase. The number of jobs between 2010 and 2011 increased, that's not the same as saying job growth increased or sped up. I asked why it slowed and why we have fallen behind other cities.

[L210]

Originally Posted by teenwolf80

Yes, multiple data groups prediction incredibly low population estimates.

Forecasting the weather a week in advance is tough. Trying to speculate job growth is another animal itself.

I could list all the various industries in SA adding jobs, from medical and financial to oil and technology. That's not including the as to be expected military and hospitality industries or even our rising green jobs industry.

I don't care what a list says, the future is incredibly bright for SA.

Are those industries adding jobs as fast as they were last year? Are those industries adding jobs at a faster rate than the industries in other cities?

[teenwolf80]

Originally Posted by L210

You either have job loss, stagnation, or job growth. Having job growth is not the same as having job growth increase. If City A added 100,000 jobs in 2010 and 50,000 jobs in 2011, it had job growth both years, but it did not increase. The number of jobs between 2010 and 2011 increased, that's not the same as saying job growth increased or sped up. I asked why it slowed and why we have fallen behind other cities.

Well, here's the numbers for 2009.

San Antonio, TX - May 2009 OES Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Area Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates

It looks like between 2009 and 2010, there was a net loss of jobs.

So yes, there was job growth increase between 2010 and 2011.

[L210]

Originally Posted by teenwolf80

Forecasting the weather a week in advance is tough. Trying to speculate job growth is another animal itself.

Apples and oranges. No one can tell how many jobs will be added a week from now just like scientists can't tell if it's going to rain a week from now with great accuracy. However, scientists can tell when we're entering a general, long-term weather pattern such as La Nina or El Nino. When I say long-term, I mean a few months to a year, not a decade from now.

Originally Posted by teenwolf80

Well, here's the numbers for 2009.

San Antonio, TX - May 2009 OES Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Area Occupational Employment and Wage Estimates

It looks like between 2009 and 2010, there was a net loss of jobs.

So yes, there was job growth increase between 2010 and 2011.

True, just about everyone lost jobs that year and just about everyone has seen an increase in job growth since then. So back to my main question, why has San Antonio dropped down the list of job growth when it has generally done better than most other major cities in the past 8 years or so? It looks like San Antonio hasn't slowed (looking at month-to-month data), it's just that other cities have surpassed us causing us to drop in rankings.


This is a better link.
http://www.austinchamber.com/the-cha...indicators.php

[prim8]

Originally Posted by L210

You either have job loss, stagnation, or job growth. Having job growth is not the same as having job growth increase. If City A added 100,000 jobs in 2010 and 50,000 jobs in 2011, it had job growth both years, but it did not increase. The number of jobs between 2010 and 2011 increased, that's not the same as saying job growth increased or sped up. I asked why it slowed and why we have fallen behind other cities.

There are as many reasons why we have fallen down this list as there are reasons why it doesn't matter.

The important fact is we are experiencing job growth. There's really nothing negative here.
Statistics are often bent to what the person presenting them wants them to say.

Perhaps our job growth slowed this year because it had been so high before and is averaging out?
Perhaps the jobs are moving to suburbs that weren't counted in this list?
There are many more possibilities here.

I think the important thing to focus on is there is still job growth here.

There are jobs here for the people that want them.

[traveljerk123]

Originally Posted by L210

We were consistently highly ranked throughout the recession. Austin has stayed consistently toward the top, but Dallas and Houston have surpassed us. New Geography ranked us #99 for job growth while Fort Worth, Austin, Dallas, and Houston are in the Forbes top 12.

All Cities Rankings - 2012 Best Cities for Job Growth | Newgeography.com

Methodology - Joel Kotkin - Forbes

I knew I should have moved to Austin instead of signing a one-year lease here.

We didn't even make the 2012 list for most affordable cities.

Introduction - Morgan Brennan - Forbes
America's Most Affordable Cities - Forbes

These lists should always be taken with a grain of salt. They put Richmond VA at #18 which is ridiculous IMO. Richmond is very expensive to be put anywhere in an "affordable cities" list. Maybe the editors didnt want to put too many TX cities in that list to make it more geographically diverse. I've lived in Phoenix and if it's ahead of SA then it makes no sense to me.

[L210]

Originally Posted by prim8

There are as many reasons why we have fallen down this list as there are reasons why it doesn't matter.

The important fact is we are experiencing job growth. There's really nothing negative here.
Statistics are often bent to what the person presenting them wants them to say.

Perhaps our job growth slowed this year because it had been so high before and is averaging out?
Perhaps the jobs are moving to suburbs that weren't counted in this list?
There are many more possibilities here.

I think the important thing to focus on is there is still job growth here.

There are jobs here for the people that want them.

Thank you for seriously answering my question. Our growth was kind of stagnant at the end of 2011 and it picked up again in February and March. Overall, we're seeing an improvement. I believe we were near the top of rankings before because our job loss wasn't so bad and we started seeing growth before most other cities. Now, we're just dropping in rankings because other cities are outpacing us. In an attempt to answer my own question, I guess other cities had more room for a harder rebound. Regardless, I need to start looking for work somewhere else because every job I interview for has way too much competition from older workers.

Originally Posted by traveljerk123

These lists should always be taken with a grain of salt. They put Richmond VA at #18 which is ridiculous IMO. Richmond is very expensive to be put anywhere in an "affordable cities" list. Maybe the editors didnt want to put too many TX cities in that list to make it more geographically diverse. I've lived in Phoenix and if it's ahead of SA then it makes no sense to me.

Virginia being on the list is completely understandable because the median income for college graduates is high with all of the federal government jobs in the area. The list compared income with cost of living. They also threw unemployment rate in there as a factor. No point in a place being affordable if you can't find a job.