78250 - worth buying into or? (Center, West: for sale, real estate, rentals)

[Russ_Shawna]

Hello all

Thanks 1st of all for the input ya'll gave on my first post. Since then I have been to SA and looked at a LOT of houses. Everything has been narrowed down to two locations - 78250 (Northwest Crossing) and 78248 (Woods of Deerfield). Both are equal in size, rooms, lot size, etc. One has a pool (78250) and the other has the office space I can use. One is 70k more expensive (you can guess which) and since it doesn't have a pool I can either invest about 30k, or more, for one or pay an additional 1200 a year to join the Deerfield HOA to use their pool since the Woods of Deerfield only provide a gate in their HOA. I can go pros and cons all day but one thing I can't really answer, since I dont live there, dont know enough local citizens and can't trust any of the people involved with the purchase of the house (realtor, seller, loan officer, etc) is "What is the neighborhood really like in 78250?" The 78248 was easy enough to figure out. Gated community, fancier cars, no street parking, etc etc. In the 78248 it was quiet during the day but then I went back at night and there were about 20 cars parked on the street leading to my house (end of road cul de sac which is about 3/8 mile in length) and one or two were vans with business names on em. About 8 houses were for sale (vs about 4 I noticed at the 78250 area) and I did notice that a few of the houses were rentals as per some searches I did online.

In the end, I am just curious to know, from some of you true blue SAer's, and I realize this is just opinions and no one can guarantee a durn thing, whether the 78248 area would be a safe investment in the long run (say 10-15 years) as things stand now? I have 3 school age children at home and one on the way. Looking to probably sell in about 10yrs when the majority are gone and I would hate to lose in the long run. 1st house purchase so to say I am nervous would be a very serious understatement. I have done as much research as I could into values, crime, trends, schools, etc but cold facts is not the same as the impression from someone who lives around and is familiar with the area. I know that 78250 is "supposedly" the better area but I am trying to decide whether its worth the 70k+ difference (and thats if I dont buy a pool for it.... which is the only thing my kids, half fish, really care about.)

Thanks in advance for any and all replies. Looking to put in my bid late tomorrow or early Tuesday so any responses by then would be greatly appreciated.

P.S. - It is not my intent to offend anyone living there or otherwise involved in the area. I just want to gather as much info and opinions as possible before I make a choice. If anyone has something truly derogatory to say please send me Private messages as I dont want to start a flame war with my post. Thanks.

[Paka]

I think both areas are fine. NW Crossing offers a nice area at affordable prices....Deerfield is quite a bit more upscale, but then the homes are almost double in price. You must keep in mind 70K difference in California or Florida market may not be a big deal...but you are talking almost 1/3 to 1/2 the cost of the home here in SA since we have areas that sell well under 400K as the norm vs exception.

Obviously you would look at a greater appreciation in a more expensive home...but IF the market were to stay the way it is now, I think you would also price yourself into a more narrow resale market potential than if you were to go with a more median priced place.

We live in Westcreek...could afford to live in a more "upscale" area, but choose to live close to work, where everything we want is offered, and even in the 200K area we are on the upper end of this market (some newer homes in this area go for more, but again, if you are looking at resale, you DON'T want to be the most expensive in the area for sure). School districts are both NSID and I think that you could be happy, safe and comfortable in either area.

Now, if you bought the cheaper home and invested the 70K, that would be a GOOD thing, right??? Heck, if you really wanted, you could buy the cheaper home here, use the 70K down towards a RENTAL property, and REALLY make out!

We have rental property here, and while I would NOT recommend buying and trying to work it from somewhere else, any investment in the Medical Center is sound...our rental home is a comfortable little 3/2 in high demand by Med Students looking for reasonable housing.
Hope this helps!

[Russ_Shawna]

Awesome reply! Thanks. One of the things we were worried about was investing money in the house after purchase, and I can honestly say its gonna need about 10k to start, and then not getting any return or at least what we invested...

I agree with the appreciation and also that it's more difficult to sell a more expensive home. You are also correct in the pricing. The home we are looking at is close to the mid 200 range and is definitely in the upper price scale for that neighborhood (I think the lot size and amount of rooms more than anything else is driving that).

Thanks again for the info...

[Paka]

Looking forward to seeing you at a meet and greet when you get here and settled!

[Drzy]

Originally Posted by Russ_Shawna

In the end, I am just curious to know, from some of you true blue SAer's, and I realize this is just opinions and no one can guarantee a durn thing, whether the 78248 area would be a safe investment in the long run (say 10-15 years) as things stand now?

I'm not sure if you're looking for a housing financial appreciation discussion, but you're going to get one anyway.

After the recent massive nationwide run-up in housing prices, people mistakenly began to think of homes as great investments, the type that should generate 5% returns a year. There are people who think, hey, I should get as big a mortgage as I can afford because I'm leveraging myself to get higher returns... over the long-haul, I'll be making great money as this $400K house of mine keeps appreciating x%. I definitely don't mean you, I mean some other people.

Alas, there is no appreciation, after inflation. Yale economist Robert Shiller, most famous for being the co-creator of housing futures, wrote a report on the changes in housing prices since 1890. It showed that housing has fluctuated about a stable mean. There were some booms along the way, but housing has always reverted. And not to scare people, but it's got a ways to go before it reverts back to the normal levels before the most recent boom (of course it may stay higher, who really knows). And I'm citing just one guy here, but this isn't new, groundbreaking stuff; home prices are fairly widely known to appreciate in line with inflation.

There's a lot more I could say about that and I'm leaving some semi-important details out, but the main message is that unless you're a real estate investor, housing should be about shelter and where you'd like to live with your family. Sorry if I rambled too much about something off-topic. And to more specifically answer your question, I think the home would be a fine investment -- but I would keep expectations in line with the usual 3% or so inflation rate.

[Russ_Shawna]

Appreciate the lesson. Really My concern is more with the neighborhood than the property. Not buying it for the investment potential, just wanna make sure I am not going to buy into a neighborhood that may have seen better days and is on a backwards slide. I've lived in a neighborhood like that and its a shame to watch things deteriorate around you, especially since this time I'll be an owner and not a renter.. Thus far it seems like most, if not all, of the folks here are in agreement and saying that the neighborhood isn't a bad place...

[Russ_Shawna]

Originally Posted by Paka

Looking forward to seeing you at a meet and greet when you get here and settled!

Sounds good to me

[Lauren0319]

I house hunted for 4-5 months (May- Sep).... I looked at well over 100 homes all over the city. I wanted 78248.... I probably looked at the Woods of Deerfield home. Feel free to PM me if you want input- I am *sure* I looked at the home.
We closed last Wed- IN 78248!!! And are *so* happy we did!!! It was my all time fav area... amazing schools and great location! Can't go wrong IMO!!!

[Russ_Shawna]

Lauren0319 - PM sent and eagerly awaiting a reply Wondering why you turned down the one I am considering ???

Anyone else willing to throw their two cents in?

[chipsndip]

If the cheaper home fits your requirements, and already has the pool you would like, then I think that's the choice for you. One zipcode still covers a lot of area, but we liked all of the neighborhoods we saw in that region. It's not in any danger of going downhill anytime soon...