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Old 02-01-2016, 11:39 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
432 posts, read 523,414 times
Reputation: 230

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Did the El Niño fizzle out ?
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:46 AM
 
Location: USA
4,434 posts, read 5,347,238 times
Reputation: 4127
No it is still going strong.
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Old 02-01-2016, 12:39 PM
 
358 posts, read 577,542 times
Reputation: 232
Brought to you by the same people who pretend to know what the climate will be like a century from now.
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Old 02-01-2016, 01:50 PM
 
108 posts, read 119,557 times
Reputation: 103
This weather is typical for this time of year. If we get ice and frozen pipes it will happen in February if doesn't happen for the Cowboy Breakfast. I have a green house but I rarely use it. It never freezes in March but it does get windy. Tie everything down.
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Old 02-01-2016, 09:40 PM
 
Location: San Antonio
232 posts, read 379,878 times
Reputation: 320
Who made that promise???

Was it GOD???

Otherwise it was only a guess. The weather men/women cant get today right, let alone the future.
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:06 PM
 
520 posts, read 781,917 times
Reputation: 493
Meteorologists actually have an 80% accuracy rate, which is pretty good given all of the variables involved. The misconception that they are always wrong centers around some misunderstanding the Probability of Precipitation (PoP) - usually called chance of rain/snow/etc.

PoP = Confidence x Area for a forecast area

So if the forecaster is a 100% confident that it will rain on 10% of his forecast reporting area he will say there is a 10% chance of rain. Pretty accurate if you are in that 90% of the area that doesn't see rain, but seems flat out wrong if you are in that 10% area.
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:16 PM
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Location: Ohio
17,107 posts, read 38,108,718 times
Reputation: 14447
If this year's El Nino is a bust, you'll have trouble convincing people in Hawaii.

https://www.rt.com/news/330488-wipeo...-peahi-hawaii/
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Old 02-03-2016, 12:41 AM
 
Location: TX
4,062 posts, read 5,644,863 times
Reputation: 4779
El Nino doesn't mean rain everywhere, some places get drought instead. But here in Texas it normally means an unusual amount of rain for our area. And really, some places (like Hawaii) just about always get much more rain than Texas, no matter what. Personally, I think that El Nino is fizzling out and the weather experts just haven't caught on yet. We do need rain...it's very dry!
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Old 02-07-2016, 08:00 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
432 posts, read 523,414 times
Reputation: 230
weatherman this morning was warning another week or two of no rain could mean drought time

I'm betting on a normal springtime with a few good rains...
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Old 02-08-2016, 07:49 AM
 
2,326 posts, read 3,935,108 times
Reputation: 1206
Farmer's Almanac is forecasting a possible drought:

2016 Long Range Weather Forecast for Texas-Oklahoma | Old Farmer's Almanac

However, nothing is set in stone, to Rick's point.
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