Aren't transplants hurting San Antonians? (Houston, Dallas: real estate market, foreclosure, affordable houses)

[Robert123]

Hello everyone,

I'm relatively new to SA and these boards. In looking over many of the posts, I've noticed that--in response to all of the people from CA or NY considering moving to San Antonio--that locals in SA are very encouraging. Most people seem to express how nice San Antonio is, and have this welcoming, "come on down" attitude. It seems to me that as more Californians and others come in, this will drive property values up more than normal, and the particular tax structure in Texas will make homes very unaffordable for Texan natives. Even Texans who already have homes will eventually be forced out of their homes (as has happened to New Jersey residents) because the taxes will get too high, and Lord knows Texans won't move anywhere else in the country, so they will be pretty much screwed. Aren't Texans shooting themselves in the foot by encouraging transplants to come in? Regardless of the "flat housing market" in CA, I think that all of these Californians selling their homes for
$600k and buying one in TX for $150k are in a better position to ride out this Texas tax rate storm than are Texans who are not pocketing appreciation from an inflated sale.

As proud as Texans are of being "Texan," (not necessarily a bad thing, by the way--don't get me wrong) it surprises me that they would allow their culture and way of living to be undercut like this. It just seems so un-Texan to have things set up so that their own kind will be unable to live in their own cities in a few years' time. Any thoughts on this?

And I know that there is legislation underway to help alleviate tax burden, but I fear this will be a drop in the bucket and is purely symbolic. It won't help much. Thanks.

[SA Greed]

My sister lives on that same philosophy and tries to dissuade any she talks to from other places who even think of moving here. I am trying to catch the wave of surging property values to build another home using a general contractor on several acres. It's going to be an interesting ride.

[texasdreamin]

I was thinking on this topic, just the other day, and was wondering that if more people move in, why wouldn't the property taxes go down? Wouldn't the coffers be overflowing with the more collections made? Or would it be offset by more children going to schools and more roads built? I read where Texas coffers are already overflowing. When that occurs, that means that too much tax is being collected. The money is suppose to go back to the citizens, so why is it being kept? I would think that if more citizens stood up to the tax ripoff that something more concrete would be done about it. It's one thing to sit around and gripe about it and another to take action to make a difference.

Thank you to all of you who do welcome us from other states. Your true Texas hospitality is truly appreciated. And...no I do not intend to sell my home and buy a $150,000 home. I intend to put the money back into a home I intend to build, giving jobs to many, many people, who need to put food on their tables. It is not my intention to move to Texas and "take". I will move there and "give".

One other thing to think about is that the properties being built won't continue to be built at costs so out of reach for native citizens, as there would have to be good paying jobs to support the costs of the homes being built. It would be a great loss to the developers to continue to build houses and people cannot afford them. People from other states will not be moving there fast enough to purchase all of the new homes being built and thus developers have to rely on Texans to purchase those properties, or go bust. If the salaries aren't there to support the purchase of those homes...I can't see this building craze lasting for very long. I think it will top off and there will be settlement. From what I understand, they are seeing that the great influx has slowed, to a degree.

[texasborn]

Originally Posted by Robert123

Hello everyone,

I'm relatively new to SA and these boards. In looking over many of the posts, I've noticed that--in response to all of the people from CA or NY considering moving to San Antonio--that locals in SA are very encouraging. Most people seem to express how nice San Antonio is, and have this welcoming, "come on down" attitude. It seems to me that as more Californians and others come in, this will drive property values up more than normal, and the particular tax structure in Texas will make homes very unaffordable for Texan natives. Even Texans who already have homes will eventually be forced out of their homes (as has happened to New Jersey residents) because the taxes will get too high, and Lord knows Texans won't move anywhere else in the country, so they will be pretty much screwed. Aren't Texans shooting themselves in the foot by encouraging transplants to come in? Regardless of the "flat housing market" in CA, I think that all of these Californians selling their homes for
$600k and buying one in TX for $150k are in a better position to ride out this Texas tax rate storm than are Texans who are not pocketing appreciation from an inflated sale.

As proud as Texans are of being "Texan," (not necessarily a bad thing, by the way--don't get me wrong) it surprises me that they would allow their culture and way of living to be undercut like this. It just seems so un-Texan to have things set up so that their own kind will be unable to live in their own cities in a few years' time. Any thoughts on this?

And I know that there is legislation underway to help alleviate tax burden, but I fear this will be a drop in the bucket and is purely symbolic. It won't help much. Thanks.

It is not so much that Texans are welcoming the Californians but that they care coming no matter what. I moved from the Seattle area and they, as you so aptly stated about making housing unafforable for the locals, did just that in Seattle and the surrounding areas. That is what caused the resentment for Californians as well as their superior attitude. And, with their big $$$, they CAN and will fix it so that only Californians (or the like w/ big real estate dollars) will be able to afford the area. We looked at Boerne, and inquired as to who (from where) was moving in and the realtor said they are coming from the inflated real estate areas (NY-NJ and CA). The builder's attitude will evolve to: why build affordable housing when people are standing in line to pay $500-600,000 for a house? I have experienced that exact phenom in two areas in the country in which I lived, Washington State (Seattle area and Northern VA (Washington, DC area). Unfortunately, who in their right mind would turn down a $300,000 offer on a house worth half that? People cannot have it both ways.

[210]

Too mcuh land in Texas for it to ever get as bad as CA or FL, atleast not for a very long time.

[LastDallasNative]

Housing prices shot up in the 1970s when the Northerners moved down. So, yes, the Californians moving in will hurt.

However, the biggest concern among some of us Native Texans is not money - it is cultural values.

It does not appear that the residents of these two states have much in common.

But the Californians will get unhappy and move on to another state. They won't stay long.

[googie2525]

I agree, they'll most likely get bored of San Antonio at some point, then move to Austin, get bored there, THEN move back to CA when the market crashes and they can scoop up a nice foreclosure or two (or three) in LA. Can't blame 'em really. I don't believe though that the New York market will crash anytime soon, too much money, too small an area...On a semi-related note, a braggy fellow from New York City moved down here a couple of years ago, opened a Carvel ice cream shop down the street from one of my businesses, which is in the same niche, well, this fella loved to tell customers quite loudly how he was gonna shut me down, etc., well, he flopped in under a year. How you like them apples?

[Robert123]

I think that the Californians have stayed everywhere they have gone. They just spread out and stay everywhere. It just seems to me that if natives of any state would do something about it (e.g., pass laws to protect from outside investment, though this would never work), it would be Texans, given the strength of their collective identity.

[Living Near Shamu]

It is true that Californians and others are coming by the droves, and they are helping push the SA market higher than normal but we can't stay in the lower end of the real estate market forever. Just last year and again this year, Fortune Magazine is predicting that the San Antonio market will be the best bet to invest again.

There will always be affordable housing but it is somewhat shifting. Whereas before you could find a nice $120-150K home in the northwest area near Helotes, now those homes begin in the upper $190s and $200Ks. The affordable houses are shifting down towards the lower west.

There is a lot of land to develop in and around San Antonio and some taxes are overflowing, but the real tax that is killing us is the school tax. Ask anyone, and over 50% of the appraisal taxes end up in the school system. That is why people have started living outside the city limits, to at least pay a little less in taxes but the infrastructure there is designed and maintaned by the county, which almost never plans for the future. Paying San Antonio City taxes allows for better street planning and more tree conservation measures, but they do add up after a while.

To this, there is no end in sight. Northside ISD, the one where all the new houses are being built on, currently has over 80,000 students and it is growing at a rate of about 3K per year. It is expected to max out at over 100,000 making it the second largest in the state behind only Houston ISD. Look at every new subdivision or Ranch being built, and they almost exclusively have one elementary, one middle school and one high school. And ever 3 or 4 years NISD passes a referendum to the voters asking for more money to buy more land to build more schools. Its a never ending circle.

[momof2dfw]

Originally Posted by LastDallasNative

Housing prices shot up in the 1970s when the Northerners moved down. So, yes, the Californians moving in will hurt.

However, the biggest concern among some of us Native Texans is not money - it is cultural values.

It does not appear that the residents of these two states have much in common.

But the Californians will get unhappy and move on to another state. They won't stay long.

I believe most of the Californians will stay. Those that will not are those that moved to Cali from somewhere else that was just as hectic, high priced, etc. Those that moved to Cali from the midwest or more "country" areas will be more likely to stay in Texas (maybe move to another area of Texas). The Californians that will leave are those that are into the hectic lifestyle, used to over inflated property values, believe that their home state or where they came from will always be superior, etc will leave Texas. These "nomads" will typically be more of the people that originated in the NY-NJ area. They may have left NY-NJ for FL, then to AZ, NC, CA or all of them then end up here only and ONLY because of the lower property values. These are the people that are never happy and nothing can be as "good" as their home state no matter what. These are the ones that will ruin the market for everyone. They will drive up the prices by coming here then when they leave in droves the market will slow down. Read the other states boards and see how many from these areas came to Texas because of the low real estate but hate it and put it down because of our way of life. Put it down because it is "flat" (Texas is NOT flat, lol, someone needs to do some homework), our accents, etc. They can not accept that there are other areas of this country that are different and people that talk different than them. Those are the ones that won't stay.

To me, a Native Texan, I'm here to stay. I like living in a place that I've had the opportunity to buy a nice house by hardwork. I like that our property values will stay in check and not over inflate like those other places that are temporarily "hot" so that my children will someday be able to afford to buy a house.