Hurricane Gustav approaching Texas? (Houston, Cool: house, mechanic, rain)

[Bo]

The updated cone map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/143912W_sm.gif - broken link) takes it east of Texas in most scenarios. We still might get some dry heat out of it.

[rd2007]

the shortened version of my name is in the 2009 Pacific list and my full name is in the 2010 Atlantic list. Hopefully I tear some things up and don't flop out like someone I work with did. I was looking up names because she wanted her name as a hurricane, but the only history of it was a little tropical storm in the Pacific that headed out west and died.

[Bo]

Originally Posted by svg210

gustav? who names these huricanes?

The lower letters of the alphabet tend to have more obscure names because the original names get retired after particularly bad storms.

[Lakewooder]

Originally Posted by Bowie

The updated cone map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/143912W_sm.gif - broken link) takes it east of Texas in most scenarios. We still might get some dry heat out of it.

I hope to God that thing doesn't hit New Orleans.

[rd2007]

everything you wanted to know about hurricane names: Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Names

[fierce_flawless]

Originally Posted by Bowie

The updated cone map (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/143912W_sm.gif - broken link) takes it east of Texas in most scenarios. We still might get some dry heat out of it.

Do we want heat?

LOL. Just bury me now, if you don't want to hear me griping. I think I'll go hide in the freezer.

[firstclassflyer]

More heat...more heat...bring it on!!!! No cooling until after Halloween.

[AnthonySA]

I would like to personally warn Texas residents that the projected path from the National Hurricane Center based on model consensus is not set in stone. Everyone who lives along or planning a trip through the Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama coasts need closely to monitor the latests forecasts from the NHC and local media outlets.

Originally Posted by National Hurricane Center

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

The dominating steering current is a weakness/trough in the upper levels forecasted to develop in the Central/Western Gulf of Mexico. However, forward movement of Gustav is key to determining the track; the slower the storm moves, the more time the ridge has to rebuild and shift Gustav westward. Another interesting development tonight is a steady southwestward jog in the main center of circulation now placing the Gustav SOUTHwest of Haiti. This could result in a second landfall over Jamaica.

This southward jog places some doubts in the model consensus as most of them do not even mention the possibility of a Jamaican landfall.

Regarding storm intensity, many storms have travelled across Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba and lost a lot of steam in doing so. However, some storms have quiclly rebounded once entering the Gulf of Mexico and were able to become a major hurricane (cat 3 or stronger). I would like to mention that sea surface temperatures are generally 85-90º in the Gulf and that windshear is minimal. These are ideal conditions for rapid tropical cyclone intensification... so this storm still indeed has the potential of becoming a major hurricane before a likely US landfall.

IMPACTS for SA:
TX/LA Border - East landfall - This will place us on the "dry" side of the storm and allow for an increase of daytime temperatures. In 2005 both Katrina and Rita yeilded sunny conditions and several days at or above 100 as late as September.

TX/LA Border - West landfall - Anything near the Houston area would leave us on the "dry" side of the storm, however we will remain close enough to receive direct energy from the outer rainbands to see scattered storms in our area. Winds across the eastern counties could reach tropical storm force. The worst case scenario for San Antonio would be a just north Corpus Christi landfall with a continued northwesterly motion. This could even bring in hurricane force winds into the city.

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I'll be sure to update you in the coming days regarding adjustments to the track of Gustav. I personally am reluctant to narrow the "cone of uncertainty" until the storm nears or enters the Gulf of Mexico as any wobble could cause a large error in any projected track when extrapolated several hundered miles.

[AnthonySA]

Shortly after posting this Gustav has showing signs of intensification. Deep convection has formed on the northside of the storm -- and the track of the storm has shifted Gustav southwest of Haiti. This wobble is a big deal as this means that the potential track of the storm will be further west than what is was yesterday. Now the main threat for landfall should be west of New Orleans and more along the TX/LA border. The spread of computer models this morning show potential landfalls anywhere from just north of Brownsville to New Orleans. The Texas coast is in legitimate play once again.

This southward shift in the storm also means that this storm will spend more time over water... and that means that the likelihood of this becoming a major hurricane is higher.

I usually hype tropical cyclones for good reason. They behave erraticly with respect to both track and intensity. For those of you who have relatives along the coast... I highly recommend you do the same. These are not a forces to be reckoned with.

[rd2007]

So you going on another trip to the coast?
This one could be interesting and hopefully stays to the east. My upcoming trip plans are already getting bad enough.