San Antonio Weather Thread (Howe: reasons, airport, moving)

[AnthonySA]

Originally Posted by rd2007

I predicted this at work yesterday and saw it on the KENS 5 and 6 PM news yesterday. Precipitation + temps in the 30's next week = at least one local weather guesser mentioning freezing precipitation. He only said sleet yesterday, but I know the mentioning of snow can't be far behind.. I wish it would happen, but I know it won't. That won't stop them from hyping it up, though, and the city will cover the roads in sand and rocks.

National Weather Service offices in New Braunfels, San Angelo, and Fort Worth are all forecasting snow across the Hill Country. The rain/snow line according to their latest forecasts is drawn from Boerne and all points north and west.

Computer models are going to have a hard time forecasting the depth of the cold air in the atmosphere since the low pressure system that will cause all the rain/snow next week is cut off from the main jet stream. So that said, the amount and extent of the wintry precipitation across South-Central Texas will depend on the strength of this upcoming storm system.

I am going to stick to my original call I posted a few days ago and say we'll see scattered sleet and flakes even in the SA metro area, but on Tuesday night rather than Sunday night.

[rd2007]

I hope you're right, but I won't hold my breath. I'd love to have a blizzard on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday because I'm off those days

[sapphire]

I hope you're right, but I won't hold my breath. I'd love to have a blizzard on Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday because I'd love to be off those days.

Thanks for letting me copy and paste RD, I just changed it up a little. I'm actually always off on Sundays anyway, but if there is a teeny tiny coating of ice on the roads, I may get lucky and they'll shut the city down! Besides, what a Cyber Monday that would be.

P. S. I am ready for summer. It's far too cold for humans outside. I am braving the cold to head to Austin, but only under duress. And I have a balla ass heater in the car. Send mittens anyway.

[AnthonySA]

http://www.mytexasweather.com/images/winterstorm120109.jpg (broken link)

[rd2007]

move it a little SE please

[AnthonySA]

WINTER STORM UPDATE

Based on the latest model analysis, the wintry weather prospects this week remain relatively consistent with the map posted earlier today (http://www.mytexasweather.com/images/winterstorm120109.jpg (broken link)). A large upper level low developing over Southern California will dig southward into Mexico and move eastward into Texas as a cut-off low (or an upper level low that is separated from the main jet stream). This area of low pressure will have enough lift to cool the surrounding atmosphere to the point that widespread wintry precipitation in the form of snow is possible across the western half of Texas beginning Monday and ending Wednesday.

Remember, This setup is nearly identical to the same storm system that produced snow across Central Texas and East Texas last year (we are nearly a full week away from the anniversary of that storm). Computer models are having difficulty predicting the extent of the cold air in the atmosphere just like they did last year. Temperatures in the 850 mb level are certainly cold enough, but the 500 mb level is way too warm. My theory for this is the fact that this is a cutoff low and the grids for the models may be too large to predict even a mesoscale sized 540 dm thickness and there is not the stereotypical arctic air mass in place (areas north of the low will be too warm for any snowfall). Another reason I differ from the model solutions is the fact that the surface temperatures are not below freezing, but the 850 mb temperatures are. This leads me to believe that there is enough cold air aloft (and above 850 mb) to support a wet snowfall.

That said, I am expecting snowfall to begin in the El Paso area where there is at present a Winter Storm Watch to begin sometime late on Monday. Snowfall accumulations in that region will range from 8-12 inches in the mountains, and as much as 2-5 inches on the desert floor. I expect 6" + in parts of the mountains in the Big Bend region with 2-4" in the valleys. Midland-Odessa and surround counties should expect 1-4 inches, and 0-3" in the San Angelo area. East of San Angelo from just north of Del Rio all the way to the Abilene area should expect primarily rain with brief changeovers to snow late Tuesday into Wednesday. The extent of the mix should remain along and north of US-90 and along and west of US-281. Computer models also hint at brief mixes of sleet and snow across portions of northeast Texas on Wednesday before the upper level low exits the state.

To clarify, at this time I am not forecasting snow in Austin or San Antonio. Brief mix overs may be possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning depending on the track and strength of the low so expect forecast adjustments the next couple of days.

In addition to the sleet and snow, expect copious amounts of rainfall across the eastern half of Texas. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches will be possibe along and east of the I-35/I-37 corridor with isolated totals in excess of 5 inches possible near the coast and in parts of east Texas.

Needless to say, temperatures statewide will be exceptionally chilly Monday through Wednesday.

[scuba steve]

Have fun with that. If it snowed here I missed that last year, and I'll be back in the PNW this time too. Somehow I have a feeling the wife won't need to break out the snow cables...

[sapphire]

Well, let us know if she needs to whip out the golf clubs.

I don't remember snow last year either, but I tend to block out the bad memories. I remember a couple of years ago when we had a "major ice incident" and I got 2 days off!! That was sweet.

[firstclassflyer]

We're out of here today too...San Diego, Guadalajara then Puerto Vallarta. Be back in a few weeks. Let it snow this week, for RD's sake!

[AlamoCpl]

From weather.so and so

Tomorrow
Rain/Wind
51°F | 44°F


Tuesday
Rain
51°F | 37°F

NOOOOOOOOooooooo!!!!!