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Old 04-03-2020, 12:18 PM
 
2,175 posts, read 1,639,783 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CA4Now View Post
Toward the end of March, there were far fewer confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 in California. There are now over 11,000 confirmed cases--and 250 deaths--in our state. I don't know how many there are of either in Virginia, but I would not want my kids exposed to this type of health risk now or in the near future.
You definitely have a point. I don't know for sure, its definitely bad now. The CDC is projecting California peaks at the end of April, so if that is right, then it will hopefully be calming down by May. The problem is though, that even after the peak, it could still take a month for things to really start to calm down and go back to normal. I think a good estimate would be things will start reopening and large gatherings will go back in Mid-to-Late June maybe? I don't know, the first couple weeks of camp might get called off, and maybe they might start later. Its really hard to say at this point from a logistical point of view honestly.
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Old 04-05-2020, 09:29 AM
 
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When the peak has passed, the curve will not go down as quickly as it went up. Social distancing has only slowed the spread of this incredibly contagious virus, not stopped it cold. So life is not going to go back to normal as quickly. Maybe after 4th of July there will be limited travel allowed for people with proven immunity (e.g. those who have antibodies and are not contagious).



I hate to tell you this but the summer camp is not going to happen. California officials are taking this seriously, they don't want to be the next NY/NJ.



It's not much of a health risk for your kids to be exposed to the virus if they are healthy overall but, if they were my kids, I would NOT to do it just for a few bucks and some weeks of peace and quiet at home. They can spread it to others in your community who might be much more vulnerable.



Overall you seem to be taking this a little too lightly. It's not "common cold" and it's not "contained" despite the earlier stupidly over-optimistic pronouncements from the Trump administration.
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Old 04-05-2020, 08:41 PM
 
2,175 posts, read 1,639,783 times
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Originally Posted by cfa-ish View Post
I hate to tell you this but the summer camp is not going to happen. California officials are taking this seriously, they don't want to be the next NY/NJ.
Logically, I am afraid you are probably right. I believe the summer camp itself is trying its best to make it happen, but as you are saying, it very well might interfere with California officials and the orders they are putting in, and if it does, then it cannot happen. If I am being very honest, I probably am taking this very lightly. Honestly if there were no special laws or guidelines put in place, We'd probably be living life as normal.

Anyway, when do you think the lockdowns will be over realistically though? Do you have any predictions on that? Like do you think schools will reopen again this coming fall in the new school year?
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Old 04-08-2020, 12:01 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Danny K View Post
If I am being very honest, I probably am taking this very lightly. Honestly if there were no special laws or guidelines put in place, We'd probably be living life as normal.

Anyway, when do you think the lockdowns will be over realistically though? Do you have any predictions on that? Like do you think schools will reopen again this coming fall in the new school year?

For now, I think schools will reopen in the Fall.
So far people have been patient with the lockdown restrictions. I hope I am wrong but I can't see that continuing for more than 3-4 months. Most started in March, so say, up to July.

Most people will be like you, they are not in the high-risk category, and they will stop caring about those who are.
The Lt Gov of Texas was just ahead of his time when he said that seniors have to make sacrifices for the economy. In 3-4 months, a majority of Americans will start saying the same thing. Let the 70+ YO crowd go to the wall, I want my freedom back!
For the next 2-3 years, until an effective vaccine is found (if it is), Coronavirus will just be a fact of life, like flu except far deadlier and more contagious. Elder mortality will skyrocket, the pro-business government will divert attention from it by pointing to the rising stock market, the general populace will go back to their bread and circuses. USA! USA! USA!
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Old 04-08-2020, 03:20 PM
 
2,175 posts, read 1,639,783 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cfa-ish View Post
For now, I think schools will reopen in the Fall.
So far people have been patient with the lockdown restrictions. I hope I am wrong but I can't see that continuing for more than 3-4 months.
Wait why do you hope you are wrong? You don't want life to go back to normal as soon as it can? You really think it's going to still be serious in July or August? I mean no doubt it will still exist but I do think it will be a lot less and more controlled. I mean it can take awhile, but it will mutate eventually. Like remember the swine flu pandemic in 2009? Now swine flu wasn't nearly as deadly and maybe less contagious but still a serious disease and by the beginning of 2010 it really mutated.
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Old 04-08-2020, 04:41 PM
 
919 posts, read 848,183 times
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I meant I am wrong that, if the lockdown restrictions do continue beyond 3-4 months, people will get impatient and start disobeying them.
Of course I want life to go back to normal ASAP. But not at the cost of millions of deaths.
I hope you are right and CV mutates quickly to be less dangerous. But if that doesn't happen in the next 3-4 months, and there are not enough antibodies (for sure there won't be a vaccine), then what?
My guess is, then the government will lift restrictions until the death count starts climbing again, and then clamp down half-heartedly if at all. Effectively condemning the vulnerable population to much higher risk.
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Old 04-08-2020, 08:23 PM
 
2,175 posts, read 1,639,783 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cfa-ish View Post
I meant I am wrong that, if the lockdown restrictions do continue beyond 3-4 months, people will get impatient and start disobeying them.
Of course I want life to go back to normal ASAP. But not at the cost of millions of deaths.
I hope you are right and CV mutates quickly to be less dangerous. But if that doesn't happen in the next 3-4 months, and there are not enough antibodies (for sure there won't be a vaccine), then what?
My guess is, then the government will lift restrictions until the death count starts climbing again, and then clamp down half-heartedly if at all. Effectively condemning the vulnerable population to much higher risk.
I'm with you on there. I mean I'm telling you if it doesn't mutate or start dying down in the next 4 months, then I am sure people will start being very rebellious against the lockdown restrictions and a bunch of protests will occur. There will also be many suicidal victims and possession of drugs like never before. People will literally go absolutely crazy.
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