Riverside RE most likely to tank in the country in next recession? (Fresno: real estate)

[kookooroo]

#1 on the list

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th..._theo_homepage

[Fisherman99]

Trying to decipher that article...Riverside county is booming...3rd fastest growing county in the NATION with growth projected through year 2065! The great recession was different from the projected one which is supposed to be milder. Many logistic/distribution center's will be hit some by China tariff wars, but some company diversity in the county and it's proximity to LA and OC should keep it in good overall shape.

[waltchan]

Riverside has a lot of buyers from China lately buying homes there.

[Tool Shed]

Foreign real estate investment in the US is down substantially. California is one of the least business friendly states in the country. Manufacturing in CA is increasingly rare. Businesses of all sizes have been leaving the state for decades, like Toyota and Campbell’s, due to high taxes, and regulations. The main thing stimulating real estate here is real estate itself. A very large correction in real estate is coming. Once the refis stop, and construction jobs start going away, a major downturn is likely. Even places like Fresno will perform much better, as they feed the nation with food produced nearby.

Riverside county is full of big box stores and ever expanding housing tracts. This is not a recipe for a strong economy. I don’t disagree with the article at all.

[KimVanderwood]

From what I gather from this article, it is that many of the homeowners in Riverside have a high LTV. Individuals who put down a low down payment are more likely to let their homes go when real estate prices go down or during a recession. There is a higher rate of people who are buying and selling shortly after. That can mean many of them are investors trying to make a quick buck or maybe couldn't afford their homes and decided to sell before they get themselves into a bad situation. Also, I believe many of us know there have been an influx of foreign investors in SoCal, including the IE. That somewhat artificially inflates prices because it takes away inventory from regular buyers. When those investors decide to sell it will create more inventory and if there isn't anyone there to buy them it will drive prices lower. We are at a point where affordability is low even with low interest rates. As of today, many homes in the IE are on the market longer and selling for less than asking. In my opinion, what I have noticed with the lower interest rates are many people are now looking closer to LA and OC because it has become slightly more affordable. That can reduce demand in the IE causing prices to soften in the IE. Many builders have sitting inventory now, whereas before people were on waiting lists.

[ironlex]

Wrong thread.