Blog Forecast: Buy a house now? 2011 (San Diego: real estate market, renting, buying a home)

[shmoov_groovzsd]

This board has excellent contributors and discusison on the market Real Estate market as a whole. While Real Estate continues to be out of reach for many, there are some of you who may be looking to buy but are hesitating because of all the news that is pumped out from various media outlets as well as other factors. While a good majority of the news is reporting the national picture, I thought this would be a nice exercise into how we are looking at the County level.

Rich Toscano is a very well respected local economist who writes for the voiceofsandieo.org. He has covered the ups and downs here for the past several years from a non biased point of view.

Curious how this will pan out a year from now....
Buy a House Now? It Depends... - voiceofsandiego.org: Toscano

[T. Damon]

A very well thought out analysis. I like the look at payments vs prices as another way of deciding what might be most important depending on your situation.

[earlyretirement]

I read a few articles by Rick and he seems sharp. My only input would be that this article has a big emphasis as buying a home as an "investment" and how that the potential ROI will be in the future. While I think that everyone wants to have capital appreciation, I think much of the emphasis from many economists seem to be buying as an investment and potential ROI.

Yes, definitely over paying is a factor when you are buying investment properties but I think you really have to separate "investment properties" from "homes" to live in. You should never buy more home than you can comfortably afford accounting for having plenty of savings for potential emergencies, loss of job, etc. I read on here from a few realtors that said that they believe in these various government programs with only a 3.5% down payment. Many of these people that can only afford a 3.5% down payment, mostly don't have big savings/emergency accounts built up and they can fall behind fairly quickly if there is some emergency or job loss.

I think these days, unless you plan to be living in your home for several years, it just doesn't make sense to buy. If you don't have a stable job that you've been with at least a few years I think renting can make sense.

Really I think more people need to think about buying a home as a place where they will live vs. an investment. Really, if I didn't have young kids I would probably hold off and wait another year or so. I know several people in this situation where they have young kids and won't want to have to subject them to several moves so renting might not make sense. But I believe for many people that aren't in this situation, they need not be in any rush to buy. Renting can and does make sense for many people.

I agree with Rick that it's just a so so middle ground situation now where prices aren't absurdly high and they aren't affordable...just somewhere in the middle in San Diego.

I still get a kick out of some owners. I saw one today where the owners bought during the bubble and they listed their house this week and are actually trying to get more than what they bought it for! I think no matter what side of the fence you are on you gotta stay realistic. Still lots of people still in denial.