The Crazy Housing Market (San Diego, La Mesa: short sales, real estate market, to rent)

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by shmoov_groovzsd

90% of 'the people' said rent? Your comment is grossly misguided and ill-informed.

I definitely fit into your scientific category of one of 'those 90% of the people' that said to rent when looking to move here. I am baffled at how that kind of advice wouldnt be 'best' advice for folks that posted and have NEVER been to San Diego to move here.
Not invest in a rental property from out of the area which is what the OP was doing.

There are general market conditions that on paper, look like a win for buyers IF they are ready to buy right now. Yes its heading up, but no one has a crystal ball as to if and when it will plateau.

The lending environment is heck of a lot different than 5-8 years ago when anyone with a pulse could get a loan. Cash buyers clearly can sidestep any mortgage appraisals and bid up beyond appraised values. This impacts comps especially now that who originates the appraisals have changed.

oh for heavens sake, it was just a estimate. I have no idea, but I will say it was almost everyone. Stop taking everything so literally. As for ill-informed, I could say the same about yours. You have no idea how many did advise, do not buy, do you?

As for cash versus a mortgage, cash has always had more buying power. I was a realtor for many years, in Calif. I know a little about the market.

Of course no one has a crystal ball, did I way, they did? Of course I didn't. I do think, if Obama gets his way and lenders are encouraged to lend to people with poor credit we will see a repeat of 10 years ago, not to the same extent, but to some extent. My guess is as good as yours I might add.

earlyretirement: I think whether to buy or rent depends on a lot of things: I was a relocation specialist for many years, in 3 different states: When the move is related to a job transfer, buying is still a good way to go. A good agent will address the needs of the client. Renting first has some advantages but can be costly. In a normal market, property values do increase, so renting for a year will mean a more expensive purchase later, plus the actual cost of moving. Most companies pay for 1 move, not several. So the cost to move from a rental into a purchased property falls on the hands of the person moving. We did this only once. We couldn't find anything we liked, we were moving into a totally new environment and we knew of a home that going to be up for sale in about 6 months. Luckily we had some help with our move, so the additional costs were not all that great and the price we paid for our home was based on the price when we first relocated.. Of course if a family has a home to sell that is a different situation. Sometimes renting is the only option. Remember, I am not talking about the person or family, moving to a new state as an experiment with no idea if the place is right for them.

[shmoov_groovzsd]

Originally Posted by nmnita

oh for heavens sake, it was just a estimate. I have no idea, but I will say it was almost everyone. Stop taking everything so literally. As for ill-informed, I could say the same about yours. You have no idea how many did advise, do not buy, do you?

As for cash versus a mortgage, cash has always had more buying power. I was a realtor for many years, in Calif. I know a little about the market.

Of course no one has a crystal ball, did I way, they did? Of course I didn't. I do think, if Obama gets his way and lenders are encouraged to lend to people with poor credit we will see a repeat of 10 years ago, not to the same extent, but to some extent. My guess is as good as yours I might add.

Oh trust me I am not taking it literally, I take it with a grain of salt, but I am not the one that wrote it.
I just think its funny when %'s are thrown around and shooting from the hip when trying to make a point.
Kind of like living in San Diego and a weatherman saying there will be a 30% chance of rain. Might as well just say its not lol

You are writing in a forum, what other way is there to take your comment? You did win a contest on C-D after all

We can agree to disagree, but I cant in all honesty, say that in hindsight or even now, that renting vs buying for someone moving here, that buying is the first choice. No way.
I suppose I can agree with prices as they relate to buying. Sure, in hindsight based on prices alone, they sure look to be at bottom around that time.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

We live in Ventura County and purchased our home in 2010. Back then hardly anyone seemed to be looking for homes. It almost seemed like we had the market to ourselves. We bought a home that we love and and offered the bank $30,000 less than they were asking for the home and our offer was accepted.

In March our neighbor put her home on the market and within 5 days had 17 people trying to bid on it. All offers were at her asking price or higher. She was asking $40,000 more than we paid back in 2010. She ended up accepting an offer that was $70,000 more than what we had paid. I was amazed but happy.

[earlyretirement]

Originally Posted by shmoov_groovzsd

Oh trust me I am not taking it literally, I take it with a grain of salt, but I am not the one that wrote it.
I just think its funny when %'s are thrown around and shooting from the hip when trying to make a point.
Kind of like living in San Diego and a weatherman saying there will be a 30% chance of rain. Might as well just say its not lol

You are writing in a forum, what other way is there to take your comment? You did win a contest on C-D after all

We can agree to disagree, but I cant in all honesty, say that in hindsight or even now, that renting vs buying for someone moving here, that buying is the first choice. No way.
I suppose I can agree with prices as they relate to buying. Sure, in hindsight based on prices alone, they sure look to be at bottom around that time.

I totally agree. The advice to wait to buy until you have a good idea about the city and what your needs are is solid advice. NO other way to look at it.

Originally Posted by nmnita

I was a realtor for many years, in Calif. I know a little about the market.

.

Oh that explains it. You can't just play "monday morning Quarterback" on this issue. Sure, the past few years were lower but what about if people followed your advice during the bubble? To go out and rush and buy something and not rent. Things wouldn't have worked out too well for them.

In any move, it makes sense to take time and get to know the areas that will work best for your family. I don't think anyone is telling people moving into the area never to buy. For the most part, people are suggesting to take the time to get to know the different areas and what might work for them. Just common sense and hard to believe that anyone would try to argue against that sound and objective advice.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

I've been seeing homes move pretty well in the nicer areas but are the "less than desirable" areas seeing the same thing?

[nmnita]

Originally Posted by earlyretirement

I totally agree. The advice to wait to buy until you have a good idea about the city and what your needs are is solid advice. NO other way to look at it.




Oh that explains it. You can't just play "monday morning Quarterback" on this issue. Sure, the past few years were lower but what about if people followed your advice during the bubble? To go out and rush and buy something and not rent. Things wouldn't have worked out too well for them.

In any move, it makes sense to take time and get to know the areas that will work best for your family. I don't think anyone is telling people moving into the area never to buy. For the most part, people are suggesting to take the time to get to know the different areas and what might work for them. Just common sense and hard to believe that anyone would try to argue against that sound and objective advice.

ok, we all know what happened with the bubble, but that was an unusual event and isn't likely (we hope) to happen again. I still maintain buying is a better gamble than renting unless you are not planning on staying in a location more than a few years. We always purchased home way before I was in the business. In fact that is what attracted me to a Real Estate career and why I specialized in relocation. Each case is individual and no one answer is best for everyone. May I ask you, BTW, did I ever say or even indicate anyone suggested not ever buying? I wonder what made you make that statement? When people relocate with major corporations, or are hired by the same, there are people in their workforce that can give suggestions on family areas. If nothing else, let me ask you this: have you, personally, moved with a family? It is always an adjustment for children to be moved from one location to another, if first a family rents, then has to uproot the family again, it is double adjustments or can be, especially when kids get older. I would much rather take the advise from a specialist and people in my office as to where my family would fit in, than rent first. It is still a matter of opinion. You think yours is right, I don't agree that renting is always the right choice. In fact, as I have said, but you are overlooking, it depends on the situation.

[earlyretirement]

nmnita,

I think that you are confused on what people were advising. People were NOT saying never buy. Just simply to rent first until they get a sense of the area, the school districts, neighborhoods, etc.

Sure, you can get advice from work colleagues but it's not the same as first hand knowledge of just getting to know the areas yourself. Also, what might work for one person might not for another.

We are only basing our comments on your post. I do realize that sometimes posts are difficult to decipher or come across wrong. But we can only go by what you posted.

I'm actually one of those people like you, that believes over the long haul that buying is a better idea vs. renting. But no way I'd recommend anyone that is just moving to an area not to rent first if they have never been to the city before or don't know it well (which is often the case with people that were asking these questions).

Why YES, I have moved with young kids. Not only to another city or even another state or even another country. But another continent. And you can bet that before I bought, I rented for 6 months just to get a better flavor and feel for the areas. And I've been coming to San Diego on vacation since I was a kid but it's totally different when you are going to raise kids.

I absolutely agree with you that it's a huge adjustment for the kids. That's why it's so important on the front end that you know the areas well so you aren't uprooting their lives if you have to move to another area (which I've seen often in different countries when parents don't take the time to get to know the areas well enough).

As far as "taking advice from a specialist". No offense but I wouldn't trust most realtors as far as I could throw them. I've dealt with more realtors in more places around the world and the vast majority I've met are just not good. The last advice I'd listen to is a "specialist". I'd just rather take the time to explore the areas and figure it out myself. Realtors and "specialists" have a vested interest. Nothing like doing it yourself and finding out what works for you. It's the least you can do as a parent. JMHO.

[shmoov_groovzsd]

Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer

I've been seeing homes move pretty well in the nicer areas but are the "less than desirable" areas seeing the same thing?

Yup. I still think it holds true in any zip code right now from what I see in the MLS daily, that if its priced well and shows well, its moving within 30 days.

I have seen the prices inch up around my zip code month after month for the past 8 months or so. Its certainly 'less than desirable' by comparison to other areas in the County but has higher prices than some other zip codes.

[shmoov_groovzsd]

Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer

I've been seeing homes move pretty well in the nicer areas but are the "less than desirable" areas seeing the same thing?

1ATP, this is an example of what just closed today in 91945 for 350k. Listed on 3/21.

3bed/2ba 1586 sq ft and less than a 6k sq ft lot (which for this area is small). Crazy this actually appraised.

1620 Drexel Dr, Lemon Grove, CA 91945 | MLS# 130014173 | Redfin

[earlyretirement]

Originally Posted by shmoov_groovzsd

1ATP, this is an example of what just closed today in 91945 for 350k. Listed on 3/21.

3bed/2ba 1586 sq ft and less than a 6k sq ft lot (which for this area is small). Crazy this actually appraised.

1620 Drexel Dr, Lemon Grove, CA 91945 | MLS# 130014173 | Redfin

Man Shmoov the Zillow "Zestimate" is WAY off on this one. Granted it looks like it has some nice upgrades but typically even at the high end of their range is fairly accurate on many properties I've looked at.

Is Zillow that far off in your area?