Small bounce back in home prices in October while inventory builds (San Diego: sales, mortgage)

[JoeSanDiegoHomes]

Median sales prices are up ever so slightly after a dip last month. They continue to be up compared to this time last year

Percent of list price received continues a downward slide to 98.8%, indicating more price drops and offers under list. It was up to a high of 108% at one point last year.
The number of active listings has bounced back to prepandemic levels, but it's still nowhere like 2018. Finally, the number of sold listings continues in a downward trajectory.

My take: the market is not healthy. But, it wasn't very healthy prepandemic due to an inequal supply/demand curve. I distinctly recall reading more than a few UT articles saying the same back around 2016. It's unclear when or if mortgage rates will drop. Barring anything incredible, as rates drop we will see more people entering the market who have been sitting on the sidelines. This should keep prices buoyant. But, that's just my best estimation.

[NYSD1995]

The real question is whether we enter recession in Q1. White collar job market is weak and layoffs are still happening in tech, biotech, pharma. That will likely mean even fewer buyers. Right now it seems that everything is being propped up by consumers, but that is softening too - travel, retail, auto loans, credit card debt all going the wrong way.

[JoeSanDiegoHomes]

Originally Posted by NYSD1995

The real question is whether we enter recession in Q1. White collar job market is weak and layoffs are still happening in tech, biotech, pharma. That will likely mean even fewer buyers. Right now it seems that everything is being propped up by consumers, but that is softening too - travel, retail, auto loans, credit card debt all going the wrong way.

Definitely possible. It's been supposed to be coming for the past year+. Somehow the engine keeps chugging along, at least for now.

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by JoeSanDiegoHomes

Definitely possible. It's been supposed to be coming for the past year+. Somehow the engine keeps chugging along, at least for now.

If it’s consumer debt, we know how that turns out. Typical San Diego buyer is going to be hit hard by QCOM or biotech industry downturn. Did the fed overshoot? (I know, I know, we shouldn’t fight it)

We continue to live in volatile and unpredictable times.

[kettlepot]

About 3 months ago, the house across the street from me sold for 13.3% over asking in just 8 days, but that was 3 months ago.

It was a 2/2 with 1335 sf. On the plus side, it still had a lot or original charm. Old school charm is something our governing overlords put no value on.

[GuyInSD]

Originally Posted by Mille Fleurs

It’s OVER you Fools.
GAME OVER...It’s time to send those Sorry Ass DEBT Junkies into insolvency and BANKRUPTCY. Anyone who took too much debt when money was cheap will have two choices ONLY. You pay that debt with STRONG US Dollars or you end up BANKRUPT. If you were DUMB enough to be seduced by cheap money and you took too much debt it’s time for you to learn your life lesson. Those days where we saved and proped up Idiots with artificially low interest rates is OVER.

Let the bankruptcies and defaults run wild. This enormous everything bubble MUST be deflated!!!!

LMFAO
Sorry Ass Knuckleheads
Good Luck!

So, you're saying I should be worried, now that my housing costs are fixed at a cost lower than they've ever been (with a less than 3% mortgage)? Why would I feel the need to default??

In the meantime, I can easily earn over 5% with just safe investments?
I'm looking forward to some 1980s-style rates; I'd love to lock in some long term investments at 15%

From my view, anyone who DIDN'T take advantage of the cheap money a few years ago really missed the boat...

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by GuyInSD

So, you're saying I should be worried, now that my housing costs are fixed at a cost lower than they've ever been (with a less than 3% mortgage)? Why would I feel the need to default??

Don't feed the troll. He's not even interested in having an actual discussion.

[joosoon]

Originally Posted by NYSD1995

Did the fed overshoot?

The shock wave isn't from where we landed, it's from how fast we got there. Those who missed the boat three years ago are going to be the ones suffering the most in the short term.

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by joosoon

The shock wave isn't from where we landed, it's from how fast we got there. Those who missed the boat three years ago are going to be the ones suffering the most in the short term.

Well the reality is that many businesses in San Diego are highly dependent on investment capital - particularly biotech. That industry is in meltdown mode. My point being about the only thing that really can hurt the housing market is job loss.

[blameyourself]

Originally Posted by JoeSanDiegoHomes

Median sales prices are up ever so slightly after a dip last month. They continue to be up compared to this time last year

Percent of list price received continues a downward slide to 98.8%, indicating more price drops and offers under list. It was up to a high of 108% at one point last year.
The number of active listings has bounced back to prepandemic levels, but it's still nowhere like 2018. Finally, the number of sold listings continues in a downward trajectory.

My take: the market is not healthy. But, it wasn't very healthy prepandemic due to an inequal supply/demand curve. I distinctly recall reading more than a few UT articles saying the same back around 2016. It's unclear when or if mortgage rates will drop. Barring anything incredible, as rates drop we will see more people entering the market who have been sitting on the sidelines. This should keep prices buoyant. But, that's just my best estimation.

I'd be curious to hear your take on this (I realize it's not SD specific but I tend to agree with this)..

https://fortune.com/2023/10/17/housi...t-time-to-buy/

‘Shark Tank’ star Barbara Corcoran insists now is ‘the very best time’ to buy a house despite interest rates hitting a 23-year high