Water Situation in San Diego(& all CA.) (Carlsbad, Encinitas: for sale, real estate)

[Jay Bean]

A few years ago I looked for homes in San Diego and wound up coming back to NY. I would like to
buy a home in San Diego(Carlsbad, Encinitas, Carmel Valley etc, etc.) BUT I read with great interest
the problems that Calif. is having with the water.(I know Carlsbad is building a desalination plant)
I'm sure it will work , but I constantly read and look for articles on this related issue.
Does anyone have any input as to what is REALLY going on there?
Also, I've been looking for homes online here(NY) and from what I see according to what's for sale
and what sells there are approx 1-2 homes sold/day in Carlsbad!(I live in NY(L.I.) in a good and
desirable area . When the market is heating up here, there is not nearly anything selling here at
the pace in Carlsbad.(Also ALOT of the homes listed for sale have NO FURNITURE in them -did
everyone just bail-out?)
I would appreciate it for any help or insight into these questions.

Thanks...............Jay

[The Flying Dutchman]

Since no one has replied yet, I'll offer my uneducated opinion on the matter:

California is experiencing a record drought as of the moment, and has a chance to become what they call a "mega-drought" lasting about a 100 years. There's a lot of data out there covering this so I'll let you do your own research.

Yes, Carlsbad is building a desalinization plant that they say will cover about 20% of the regions' needs (whether this is projected or present, I don't know), BUT it will be a reliable source of water as opposed to being subject to climate swings. All in all living in California and Southern California in particular, water will always be a concern because it is a finite resource. We are pretty good at conserving water (San Diego made headlines recently), but time will tell if we can make it last.

Finally, to address your point of real estate in North County, I doubt the market conditions have any much to do with the water situation, and more to do with the market in general. The market right now is tightening because the supply of homes is down while the demand is up. More homes are being built in favor of density rather than suburban sprawl because simply put, we are all built out.

Edit: There are a lot of home flippers in San Diego County; Google "Piggington" for an invaluable real estate forum site.

[happyinca]

Originally Posted by Jay Bean

A few years ago I looked for homes in San Diego and wound up coming back to NY. I would like to
buy a home in San Diego(Carlsbad, Encinitas, Carmel Valley etc, etc.) BUT I read with great interest
the problems that Calif. is having with the water.(I know Carlsbad is building a desalination plant)
I'm sure it will work , but I constantly read and look for articles on this related issue.
Does anyone have any input as to what is REALLY going on there?
Also, I've been looking for homes online here(NY) and from what I see according to what's for sale
and what sells there are approx 1-2 homes sold/day in Carlsbad!(I live in NY(L.I.) in a good and
desirable area . When the market is heating up here, there is not nearly anything selling here at
the pace in Carlsbad.(Also ALOT of the homes listed for sale have NO FURNITURE in them -did
everyone just bail-out?)
I would appreciate it for any help or insight into these questions.

Thanks...............Jay

Jay - I worked in Water and retired last fall. Here is into on the Desal Plant and this web site is for SDCWA the wholesaler for the entire county of San Diego. Any questions you have you can find on this website.

Carlsbad Desalination Project | San Diego County Water Authority

I know what is really going on with water. The supply is fine (as long as we keep getting rain) and the price of water will continue to go up.

In terms of real estate it shot up a lot in 2013! 2014 not as much, but many investors or others are "cashing out" so that is why you see homes with no furniture. The foreclosures, short sales have pretty much happened in 2009 - 2012. Many, many people were waiting for values to came back and then cashed out in 2014. My husband and I did, we sold in 2014 and moved to a cheaper (and we think very lovely area) to retire.

[happyinca]

Jay - This is another good web site that provides updates on the projects.

Carlsbad Desalination Project | Desalination Plant

Many other cities along the coast are watching to see if the plant will be successful. I believe it will be and then we will see many Desal plants in the next 10 - 20 years. This plant took 10 years to get permits but hopefully future plants will be permitted sooner.

I won't get into all the politics of water but boy are there politics in water!!!

You should move here if you wish, no real worries about water supply in our lifetime and the weather is amazing! 80 degrees today and tomorrow.

Of course we need more rain and I hope we get it but between storms we sure have incredible weather.

[Tedsterman]

Worst case scenario is not if, but when the Colorado River dries up and there is no more surface water available to San Diego. Make no mistake, water will be more expensive, however San Diego will prevail. Warm water port cities have survived and thrived since the ancient times. The US Pacific Fleet and Marines are a major force in the region, it would be cheaper to build desalination plants, than relocate these bases elsewhere. Countries in the Arabian Gulf have a lot of experience with building vast desalination plants. Southern California's landscape will consist of desert plants and for those who want grass, artificial will be the norm. Most at risk are inland cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix, where pumping desalinated water uphill will be extremely expensive. Most of their water will need to be trucked into the inland communities.

Speculators and investors of real estate properties in San Diego have slowed and now we see a slower more normal appreciation of homes based on household income and supply. One caveat are the baby boomers who are retiring from the East Coast and Midwest who want the warmer climates of Florida, Hawaii and California in their golden years. If they have the money and means, they will move to those locations. If I have a pile of money, arthritis and bad back, why would I spend my golden years shoveling snow?

[sfosyd]

I think San Diego is better off then Northern California during this drought. The main source of water up there is the Sierra snowpack...and the few storms this year have all been warm. Dismal.

In addition to accessing some of the Sierra water, San Diego has the Colorado River as well as the desalination options. However, desalination is very much subject to the whims of oil prices as it is extremely oil intensive which is why it has taken off in the gulf countries. Water will become even more expensive and it's already expensive.

[happyinca]

Originally Posted by sfosyd

I think San Diego is better off then Northern California during this drought. The main source of water up there is the Sierra snowpack...and the few storms this year have all been warm. Dismal.

In addition to accessing some of the Sierra water, San Diego has the Colorado River as well as the desalination options. However, desalination is very much subject to the whims of oil prices as it is extremely oil intensive which is why it has taken off in the gulf countries. Water will become even more expensive and it's already expensive.

That is true, Southern CA plans for Drought, has plenty of storage (2 years worth) as Drought is a fact of life so the water agencies invest in water storage. Northern CA does not have the drought problems Southern CA has so they have not invested in storage, water projects to the extent of Southern CA. In this Drought Central and Northern CA have had it much worse.

Don't agree about water being priced like oil. SDCWA has an agreement with Poseidon (Poseidon is building the plant), so it won't be like oil, one price this week, another price next week.

Here is info about the Water Purchase Agreement for the Desalination Plant.

San Diego County Water Authority Approves Desalinated Water Purchase Agreement | Association of California Water Agencies

Do agree over time water continues to go up in price. Eventually Desal will be cheaper than the Imported Water we get from Colorado River and Northern CA. But that will be many years from now.

Here is even more detail if there are any water geeks out there.

http://www.sdcwa.org/sites/default/f...mo%2011-21.pdf

Best site to keep up with Plant Progress:

http://carlsbaddesal.com/?paginate=3812029:2

[sfosyd]

Good information. Thanks. Here is another article that helps explain as well.

Parched California Pours Mega-Millions Into Desalination Tech - NBC News

[Jay Bean]

Thank you for the information, I knew that there where other countries also using the
desalination plants and I have been following them.
I will continue to look for homes and most likely be coming this spring/summer to buy
something(hopefully I'll find what I like this time).

Thanks..................Jay

[Jay Bean]

Hi Happyinca,

I have also done my share of research on the topic of Desalination, many other
countries use it and I was just curious if anyone had further insight , from living in CA.
I know the weather is good I've been their numerous times looking for homes but for
some reason they didn't work out . I'll be coming back this spring/summer to continue
looking and hopefully get one this time.

Thanks for your feedback I'll check out the sites you mentioned.

Regards..............Jay