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I actually studied the failure of Smart Growth in SD County 10 years ago for my senior year research paper for the Urban Studies and Planning program at UCSD, clearly nothing has changed sadly. Lots of missed opportunities to create some good TOD/SG villages, especially in Mission Valley.
So glad this study was done to expose the ugly truth. NIMBYs are definitely part of the reason why home prices here are out of control.
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Originally Posted by sav858
I actually studied the failure of Smart Growth in SD County 10 years ago for my senior year research paper for the Urban Studies and Planning program at UCSD, clearly nothing has changed sadly. Lots of missed opportunities to create some good TOD/SG villages, especially in Mission Valley.
Don't even get me started on the trolley expansion following the the 5 up to UCSD. While it's late to the game, Mission Valley actually has big transformation plans in the future, especially in Grantville, which is only 1 trolley stop away from SDSU.
And there are more than a few big projects planned for areas around Mission Valley and Fashion Valley malls. Hopefully, they will be transit oriented developments.
If you want smart growth you need job growth, and that's the crux of SD's challenge. Demand for short-term housing doesn't create permanent change, hence all the apartment development we are seeing. Until there are jobs for all these people that would facilitate living along a trolley line... no demand = no growth. Demand in SD is for large family homes out of the urban core, and those are still being built in many places. The demand cited in this article is mostly demand from real estate developers to build more multi-family units.
If you want smart growth you need job growth, and that's the crux of SD's challenge. Demand for short-term housing doesn't create permanent change, hence all the apartment development we are seeing. Until there are jobs for all these people that would facilitate living along a trolley line... no demand = no growth. Demand in SD is for large family homes out of the urban core, and those are still being built in many places. The demand cited in this article is mostly demand from real estate developers to build more multi-family units.
You need risk takers and big thinkers. You need more Qualcomms to spawn more Qualcomms who spawn more Qualcomms. SD has a huge startup problem. Many startups here just want to stay small or sell after a year or two. That makes one or two people rich, it does nothing for SD. Startups that grow and spawn other startups creates jobs, companies, interest, and it also creates talented people who want to move to SD over people moving to PB just to 'surf' and party and have mom/dad pay their rent.
Google, FB, & Apple compete with startups for top talent now. And many pick the startups. SD has a huge challenge because the people here are far different. And there are also a lot of people here who would hate it if some young UCSD kid started the next Google. It would be more likely that kid moves to the Bay Area and brings the company with him over spawning an entire ecosystem here.
There are good and bad to spawning development, but lets be real, SD is expensive and the way things are going with some of these Legacy hardware companies, including Qualcomm, SD will only have a ton of startups who never plan on expanding or hiring, military, and hospitals.
I also don't understand why the Biotech space is not marketed. SD has a huge Biotech presence, lots of smart people, it's not the same as Apple or Google or FB coolness factor, but that space can really change the world and has, but for the most part, is ignored. I mean illumina is a billion dollar company that half the people in SD don't even know exists, much less outside of SD. And beyond that I bet most people couldn't tell you what they do. And that's a problem. Companies like illumina should be well known across the world. Instead they are rarely spoken about unless you're in that industry.
I don't think SD will be the Bay Area, far different, but places like Seattle have a huge huge startup scene, lots of different companies, they have telco, real estate, manufacturing, and so on. The traffic sucks, but they are on par with NYC when it comes to the tech scene, except everybody still assumes Amazon is a Silicon Valley company, not from Seattle. It doesn't matter to them though as their are tons of companies always popping up.
SD has a lot of possibilities, is better situated compared to LA, cheaper than the Bay Area, and if they ever actually partnered with Mexico, they are closer and could build out entire new industries and possibilities. And "Offshoring" would not really be offshoring or outsourcing if it's your neighbor who needs to build out it's own ecosystem.
There are a lot of talented and smart people in SD, but many just move or lose faith and build some simple mobile app because there are also a lot of people here who still want it to be 1965. And in some places, adding an air conditioner is a pain and long process because of HOA. Expand that to building offices and companies, and it becomes a nightmare just to talk about it, much less plan it.
I also don't think many people 'live' here. They are here, but they aren't invested. And that might be a huge problem in many areas if more than half the population just rents. If you don't look at this as a place you can afford long term or a place that will give you what you want, aka it's all about the weather, why would you be invested in improving it? The only people interested in SD seem to be the folks who don't want anything built. Hell, they are removing the boardwalk near the race track because people didn't want it here. And it was already built. And it was a cool little area to walk and hike. Now you'll pretty much be walking near the street once they remove the 'boardwalk.' But that is an example of a lot of the challenges SD faces. Especially in North County.
If you want smart growth you need job growth, and that's the crux of SD's challenge. Demand for short-term housing doesn't create permanent change, hence all the apartment development we are seeing. Until there are jobs for all these people that would facilitate living along a trolley line... no demand = no growth. Demand in SD is for large family homes out of the urban core, and those are still being built in many places. The demand cited in this article is mostly demand from real estate developers to build more multi-family units.
I don't really see how that is the crux of SD's challenge for Smart Growth. The area is still growing and building lots of multi-unit developments, it's just not next to transit or really Smart Growth. Even with better job growth, if all that growth is going to suburban office park's that does nothing to facilitate Smart Growth.
Currently single family homes represent less than a third of all housing permits issued in the county as well, so the vast majority of new housing being built is multi-family.
It's surprising to see how far back San Diego is on development front once you step outside the city limits. In many urban areas in SD, it has changed dramatically, other locations, not so much. Downtown has obviously seen the most change and is where all the money went from a development standpoint.
But if you visit other neighboring communities in SD, it's like as if time has been frozen. Not much new development going on, and from I can tell, SD has one of the worst nimbyism in the state. It's mostly the old rich residents up north that doesn't want to see changes AT ALL NO MATTER WHAT! We obviously need more lanes on our freeways, more bridges, more trolley stations that expand to actual job centers including the beach neighborhoods. All these problems should've been addressed 10 years ago, but the fight from residents is insane! They want nothing new built, especially when it comes to transit related development.
These longtime homeowners complain that their property values will go down if a new apartment complex or condo's will be built down the street from their home, when if anything it will either raise their own housing value, or not change at all because San Diego will never ever again be an affordable place to live, so this in a sense benefits homeowners all across the region.
SD is so far behind in housing construction, it will never keep up with demand. What we do need is more mass transit to area's that have value to people, not places in middle of nowhere such as Gillespie field.
Also what is it with so many San Diegans being opposed to Urbanism? Every Time an urban project is presented in a semi-urban-suburban neighborhood, or even a major development like a housing project, or a commercial site, vast amounts of people are against it and come out of the woodworks to fight it to the end. Not to be racial here, but you tell me what kind of people are MOSTLY opposing these new developments? Old White Folks. Am I right?
The one example of the bike lane paint in Coronado being compared to graffiti at their city council meeting. Are you Effing kidding me!!!!!!!!!!! Really??? What kind idiots, Simpletons live in Coronado? That has to be one of the most ridiculous statements I have ever heard. Why would anyone oppose painted bike lanes in the first place? It's a safety matter for crying out loud. That's insane! Rich Ole Hags are preventing change in SD I tell you.
I don't really see how that is the crux of SD's challenge for Smart Growth. The area is still growing and building lots of multi-unit developments, it's just not next to transit or really Smart Growth. Even with better job growth, if all that growth is going to suburban office park's that does nothing to facilitate Smart Growth.
Currently single family homes represent less than a third of all housing permits issued in the county as well, so the vast majority of new housing being built is multi-family.
If there were lots of design studios and web dev agencies along El Cajon Blvd, there would be huge demand for transit oriented development. Instead there are pawn shops and junk businesses. The reason there is no growth on ECB is because there is no demand for transit-oriented development if the transit can't get you anywhere you need to go.
The demand that is there, is the same demand as always, transient, young college-age people. I don't know where you live that you see all this growth, but what I see is mostly just luxury apartment buildings downtown and near SDSU or along the freeways. The infill development stuff is nearly zero.
Look at the El Segundo area near LAX if you want to see what happens when you combine a transit hub with thousands of high-paying jobs - a massive cluster of apartment buildings built in less than 2 years.
San Diego has had decades to figure this out and can't make a dent. Here's a radical idea - what if we incentivised companies like Qualcomm to invest in small satellite offices in mid-city or downtown so the jobs are accessible to transit? That's what SF did and it worked pretty well. It would mean tax breaks, easing regulation, streamlined permit processing, oh wait, that will never happen in SD.
If there were lots of design studios and web dev agencies along El Cajon Blvd, there would be huge demand for transit oriented development. Instead there are pawn shops and junk businesses. The reason there is no growth on ECB is because there is no demand for transit-oriented development if the transit can't get you anywhere you need to go.
The demand that is there, is the same demand as always, transient, young college-age people. I don't know where you live that you see all this growth, but what I see is mostly just luxury apartment buildings downtown and near SDSU or along the freeways. The infill development stuff is nearly zero.
Look at the El Segundo area near LAX if you want to see what happens when you combine a transit hub with thousands of high-paying jobs - a massive cluster of apartment buildings built in less than 2 years.
San Diego has had decades to figure this out and can't make a dent. Here's a radical idea - what if we incentivised companies like Qualcomm to invest in small satellite offices in mid-city or downtown so the jobs are accessible to transit? That's what SF did and it worked pretty well. It would mean tax breaks, easing regulation, streamlined permit processing, oh wait, that will never happen in SD.
Three's no trolley line down ECB, buses aren't really the focal point of Smart Growth. Even if there was you'd probably encounter much of the same local NIMBYism that currently prevents Smart Growth.
University City has seen some massive apartment complexes recently and Mission Valley still has a ton of development going on. There is growth, it's just not TOD. San Diego County is on track to have the most building permits issues since 2006. But you yourself do see development, just not infill, which obviously shows the demand is there but they just aren't really building in it in "smart" locations.
What are you talking about with El Segundo? There is no Smart Growth/TOD in the area. It's all industrial and sprawling office parks likes it's always been. You mean Play Vista? That's not Smart Growth or TOD as there is no rail transit or really any good transit from the area.
SF offered tax breaks to companies (Twitter for example) to build offices in a crappy area of Downtown (Mid-Market) to help clean it up, not really the same thing. Downtown SF has a much different dynamic but the rest of the Bay Area is pretty terrible at Smart Growth/TOD as well.
San Diego has the demand for new developments it's just for a variety of reasons, regulatory and NIMBYism, it doesn't do a very good job at ensuring it's Smart Growth/TOD. Even with the job growth SD has had it usually seems to be located in suburban office markets, so even with more robust job growth there is no guarantee that would lead to anymore TOD. Residential and commercial demand really isn't the reason for the lack of TOD/Smart Growth in the region.
Last edited by sav858; 10-15-2015 at 09:59 AM..
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