San Diego bubble 2.0 for 2016 (Corona, La Mesa: purchase, living in, price)

[Losfrisco]

Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer

Southern California near the coast.

I paid 150 grand in 98 for a house made in 1965 for 20 grand. During that entire time the value of the house (estimated) went down slightly during 2012. Every other year it either went up a lot or held it's value. Pretty easy to figure out RE in SoCal coastal.

...and you still have people matter of factly stating things like, "well, if you wait 18 months, these prices are not sustainable, etc."

[Frac]

Originally Posted by TacoSoup

Backing off a bit on your original prediction from 5 years ago and now doubling down I see?

Now if you said this in the early 2000’s when everyone and their dog could get a mortgage, and there was a ton of inventory I’d give it some credence? Yeah maybe there’s some panic buying out of the fear of missing out right now, but that’s hardly what’s going on. There’s just not a lot of inventory so you have a lot of people all vying for the same properties. Not to mention interest rates are probably as low as they’ll ever be moving forward.

I personally know six people (some couples) that have bought within the past year or so.

One moved up to a larger home once they started, and learned, they’ll both be working from moving forward and realized they want/need more space.

One had a second child unexpectedly on the way and needed a third bedroom ASAP.

Two were first time buyers. Of those two, one came into some money and could finally buy, and one stretched themself thin. But both told me the time had come once they did the math and realized buying wasn’t much more than renting all things considered.

And two bought second homes for pleasure and to Airbnb in the mountains. One in Big Bear, and one in Mammoth.

The supply issue should revert to the mean at some point. A lot of that was due to eviction/mortgage moratoriums. I do think new SFHs are likely to be constructed on a limited basis moving forward.

[T. Damon]

Originally Posted by Losfrisco

...and you still have people matter of factly stating things like, "well, if you wait 18 months, these prices are not sustainable, etc."

Those people just better hope the next 18 months are drastically different than this month. Which of course it will be, but still.
[IMG][/IMG]

Can you imagine an almost 24% jump in one month?! This is for a property down the street from me, mine is "only" a 16% jump of $210k in the last 30 days. I know these zestimates are somewhat dubious at best, especially in a small historic neighborhood like this where literally every property is different but still they are based on real data being plugged into their algorithm. Scary!

[NORTY FLATZ]

Wow, that's quite the appreciation!

[Frac]

Have we seen the "bottom" in months of supply of existing homes?

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by Frac

Have we seen the "bottom" in months of supply of existing homes?

Unless people decide to start selling their homes it appears not.

[Losfrisco]

Originally Posted by T. Damon

Those people just better hope the next 18 months are drastically different than this month. Which of course it will be, but still.
[IMG][/IMG]

Can you imagine an almost 24% jump in one month?! This is for a property down the street from me, mine is "only" a 16% jump of $210k in the last 30 days. I know these zestimates are somewhat dubious at best, especially in a small historic neighborhood like this where literally every property is different but still they are based on real data being plugged into their algorithm. Scary!

I just closed on a place five weeks ago, have yet to make the first payment and valuation has jumped about %4 on Redfin.

I don't take these estimates very seriously, nor do I buy into all the "this market is INSANE" mantra that everyone wants to think in seemingly all 50 states.

Its really simple-southern California coast has pretty much objectively perfect weather and is anchored by a global economic mega-region. There's nowhere else on earth where those two things coincide quite like the way they do here.

The prices aren't coming down, and they probably have more room to go up in San Diego than anywhere else on the west coast.

[TacoSoup]

Originally Posted by Losfrisco

I just closed on a place five weeks ago, have yet to make the first payment and valuation has jumped about %4 on Redfin.

I don't take these estimates very seriously, nor do I buy into all the "this market is INSANE" mantra that everyone wants to think in seemingly all 50 states.

Its really simple-southern California coast has pretty much objectively perfect weather and is anchored by a global economic mega-region. There's nowhere else on earth where those two things coincide quite like the way they do here.

The prices aren't coming down, and they probably have more room to go up in San Diego than anywhere else on the west coast.

Congrats.

[NORTY FLATZ]

La Mesa is the “coast?”

[Losfrisco]

Originally Posted by TacoSoup

Congrats.

Thank you.

Couldn't have happened if I hadn't took some risk by buying the only small, run down condo that no one wanted with a VA loan in Point Loma 5 and a half years ago. Of course I was authoritatively told I had "paid too much" then, too.