More on Cost of Buying A Home in San Diego (San Jose: HOA fees, school district)

[snpdragr]

Originally Posted by metoque

This is exactly why I believe the housing market to be in a bubble. There's a complete disconnect between prices and household incomes. It doesn't make any sense.

Do you have any data to support this claim? The last time I checked on piggington, home price to income/rent is modestly above historical norms (maybe 20%) but certainly not bubble level:

Toscano, a partner at Pacific Capital Associates, said overvaluation can best be tracked by looking at rent, income and home prices together. In mid-2005, home prices shot up 75 percent over historic median levels. Today, they are 19 percent over those historic median levels.

from Bubble not likely for San Diego houses anytime soon, experts say | SanDiegoUnionTribune.com

Originally Posted by futbol

If my house was totaled due to an earthquake (and I don't have insurance for that), I would rebuild on the same lot and keep the Prop 13 property tax base.

The land is usually worth more than the structure in San Diego County, and that doesn't get destroyed.

I'd probably do the same once my equity approached rebuilding cost. But if I managed to buy with only 5% down (which might be more common here due to VA/FHA loans), I probably wouldn't rebuild.

[oddstray]

Originally Posted by metoque

This is exactly why I believe the housing market to be in a bubble. There's a complete disconnect between prices and household incomes. It doesn't make any sense.

But it's been that way pretty much always in San Diego. That by itself doesn't signify a bubble here.

[JohnAlt]

Originally Posted by oddstray

But it's been that way pretty much always in San Diego.

Do you have data to support that? Hint, "always" does not mean since 2000.

[metoque]

Originally Posted by JohnAlt

Do you have data to support that? Hint, "always" does not mean since 2000.

Bingo.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

We aren't going back in time to pre WWII or even 1960 are we? Or back to when you could "stake a claim"?

Of course it's more expensive now.

In the 80s interest rates were near or even over 20%. We cannot compare Cities like SD to anywhere in say, Nebraska. I would like to see data comparing every large City to median income but even that would be full of holes due to demographics and the fact that jobs have changed, been automated or moved offshore.

The one area seriously lagging in SD is higher wages in my opinion.

[oddstray]

Originally Posted by JohnAlt

Do you have data to support that? Hint, "always" does not mean since 2000.

Nope. No official data. But I moved here in the late 80's, and by my observation it was true then, and it's been true since then.

I did visit once in the 50's, and it was possibly not true then. I would have been too young to have known or cared.

[RosieSD]

More on San Diego's housing squeeze, from KPBS:

San Diego's Housing Crisis Squeezing The Middle Class | KPBS

Key take away points:

- Since 2000, rents in San Diego have increased by 32% while median wages have decreased 2 percent.

- San Diego Housing Commission estimates more than 70% of San Diegans are now priced out of the average priced home

- San Diego County needs to build an estimated 11,000 to 12,000 housing units a year in order to keep up with growth, but that hasn't happened since the early 2000s

- Last year, 10,000 units were built but out of the 10,000 only 239 were single family homes that sold for $500,000 or less.
In multi-family construction, only 471 units were built that sold for $500,000 or less last year.

- The San Diego housing market is an "hourglass" market, with more houses being built for people at the top and the bottom of the economic ladder than for people in the middle.

Lots of other good data and expert opinions in the full article --- be sure to click on the link above to read the article, if you are interested in the San Diego housing market. I will cross post this in the Get Real about San Diego Housing Sticky for future reference.

[Larry Siegel]

Originally Posted by RosieSD

- San Diego Housing Commission estimates more than 70% of San Diegans are now priced out of the average priced home

You have to take these statements with a grain of salt. Obviously, someone is living in the homes. This just means that 70% of San Diegans couldn't afford to buy back their houses at current prices, something that probably has always been true.

[RosieSD]

Originally Posted by Larry Siegel

You have to take these statements with a grain of salt. Obviously, someone is living in the homes. This just means that 70% of San Diegans couldn't afford to buy back their houses at current prices, something that probably has always been true.

Agree. I thought the 70% figure was on the high side, since 70% of the people I know own their own homes.

[snpdragr]

Originally Posted by RosieSD

More on San Diego's housing squeeze, from KPBS:

San Diego's Housing Crisis Squeezing The Middle Class | KPBS

This article is great with a lot of quantitative numbers and detail. The paragraph that stuck out for me was:

The reality is that in the first eight years of building out SANDAG’s fourth housing element cycle — between 2003 and 2010 — the construction industry built 152 percent of the housing needed for above-average earners. Low earners got 26 percent of the housing they needed. Middle-income earners did worst of all — just 18 percent of their construction needs were met.

I'm somewhat ambivalent about the housing problem here. Yes it would be nice to have more affordable options , but at the same time people complain bitterly about traffic and overcrowding. San Diego traffic is not bad (in my opinion) and I would hate to see it approach LA or SF levels. On the other hand, maybe that could be avoided with a good public transit option.