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Old 12-01-2006, 07:57 PM
 
3 posts, read 14,213 times
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I am thinking of a move back to SD after leaving in 1994. Just like most people, money is a concern, but my target price range will be $600-700K. I am hoping to get the best single family house/ neighborhood to raise kids. With that in mind, what are your predictions/ advice for the best time to buy during the slow-down in real estate? I can't make it happen for another year and a half so hopefully there won't be a rising or already rising market. Is the expectation that this will be a 3-5 year downturn before the next upswing?
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Old 12-02-2006, 10:54 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
9 posts, read 29,205 times
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Your guess is as good as any other individual out there, including some, if not most of the real estate "experts". I would say depends on how smart, or lucky you are. Have you been living a good, clean life?
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Old 12-03-2006, 09:12 AM
 
8,475 posts, read 27,249,668 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. of Love View Post
I am thinking of a move back to SD after leaving in 1994. Just like most people, money is a concern, but my target price range will be $600-700K. I am hoping to get the best single family house/ neighborhood to raise kids. With that in mind, what are your predictions/ advice for the best time to buy during the slow-down in real estate? I can't make it happen for another year and a half so hopefully there won't be a rising or already rising market. Is the expectation that this will be a 3-5 year downturn before the next upswing?
If I could predict the future, I'd be a rich man by now. :-)

If you are buying a home to live in for the long haul, if you are looking to make a stable place for your family, then you buy what you can afford when it makes sense for you. Assuming you plan to hold for 5, 7, or 10+ years, today's housing price probably won't matter anyway.

If you are buying a condo with a plan to stay 2 years, or are looking to flip a property, it's probably not such a great idea right now.
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Old 12-03-2006, 11:08 AM
 
3 posts, read 14,213 times
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Well, I guess what I am trolling for is info from someone with a longer view of real estate trends from southern CA. Perhaps an older realtor or invester that knows the historical cycling in SD. In my mind, most real estate cycles go 3-5 years on average but I am well aware that there are numerous factors involved and that cycles may stay down or up as long as 10 years or more. Not having lived in SD for 12 years makes me a little out of touch, hence, my viewing of this forum. It seems that SD and most of CA is overvalued resulting in many people leaving. Still, I think there will always be demand in southern CA for obvious reasons. What I don't understand is how so many people are making it there. With an average yearly salary of $50K or so you are either renting or have bought a long time ago. It must be tempting to some folks to cash in their $100k home for $800K and retire to another state where they can live better.
To answer your question, my plan is to stay there long term and I am sure that one day today's $700K home will sound like a sweet price when the average is $2.5 million. I'm just trying to decide if I should move back in 1.5 yrs because the housing is at a low vs. living somewhere else and accelerating my retirement savings before a move back in 4-5 years. If I wait too long and the market is rapidly moving up, it would defeat my efforts to save money for retirement.
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Old 12-03-2006, 08:41 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
9 posts, read 29,205 times
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I feel your pain, Dr. of Love. We are currently pretty much in the same boat. I really like SD, and well plan on retiring someday in SD. I visited and like Encinitas this pass summer. At that time while the market was started to head down, I found the houses were very comparable to where I am living at now (Scottsdale, AZ). So it will be a wash if I sold mine in AZ and move to Encinitas. I even got a job offered in downtown SD as a transfer within the company if I wanted to. Except, SD pays the same as what I am earning here in AZ! If I made the move, I will have to take a cut in the form of rising cost of living. Not to mention downsizing from a current 3000 sq. ft home to about 2400 sq. ft home in Encinitas. Or, stay put and save more for retirement and move when time is right. Timing is that million dollar question, isn't it?

My remaining mortgage is down to 78K for my current home with no other debt. I am eyeing the SD market for a lower pricing and hope to buy a home for someday retirement. Is it still possible to rent it out and hope for break even while staying and accumulating asset in AZ until retirement? I have 2 kids age 10 and 12, that means they will both be in college in 8 years. And my current mortgage will definately be retired. I can even pay it off within 5 years or if i wanted to. Can some local folks give me some pointers here please. Thank you in advance.
Eric
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Old 12-03-2006, 10:40 PM
 
144 posts, read 880,365 times
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I live in the Leucadia section of Encinitas. I've lived all 17 years of my life in the same house, on the same street with the same neighbors. The houses are smaller than the tract crap out in Carlsbad, but what you get in return is a lot, lush landscaping (trees that can't be moved around) and often times Avacodo trees (free guac) and character that is sorely missing from these developments. My mom and I just walked through Magnolia Estates in the Bressi Ranch development of Carlsbad today and they are huge (5000 sqft. and up) but the community is brand new and it looks like homes on dirt (which is what it is). In Leucadia, the original houses are smaller though (around 2000sqft + or -). Some people have torn those down and built custom homes or remodel them. They start close to a million and go up from there and top out in the high 2 millions. But most are in the mid millions range.

That's a lot of money but if you're looking for bang-for-your-buck value, San Diego isn't for you. But if you are looking for a climate that is absolute perfection, nice people (they maybe hippies), great trees of all kinds and usable lots with decent homes on them and a place with alot of character, Coastal North County is for you.

I could go on and on. The part of Encinitas south of the Panakin but north of Encinitas BLVD and west of 101 is a great area. Smaller houses on smaller lots, but you're literally a step out the door and a 3 min walk (or less) and you're on the beach. Neptune Ave, which is above this section on the beach as interesting homes on both sides with the obviously more expensive homes on the ocean side. These offer a view that might quite literally take your breath away. Watch out for the eroding bluff that is getting ever so close to the homes. To see what I mean go to Stone Steps and walk along the beach and take a look back. Oh no.

Cardiff is another great location, small lots but big, big views. The area north of Birmingham BLVD west of the 5 is like Leucadia with the bigger lots, older homes and nice trees/plants, although no stunning Cardiff view.

If you have a sizable bank account, you really can't do better (IMO) than Rancho Santa Fe. It's a forest of trees and curvy rural roads with houses that range from early century spanish style homes, to mid century california style homes to new custom homes that range from amazing to breathtaking to holy sh**. But all have great, big lots (2.5 acres and up, usually around 3-4, but can run up to 20). It's a quite location that isn't crowded, yet you're only 5 minutes to the best beaches in SD. Prices start at around 2mil for a 3000sq ft cali-ranch style home on 2 acres and the sky is truly the limit.

Del Mar is like Leucadia except with more trees, amazing custom homes along with mid century originials, and a steep hilside that affords it an unbelieveable view thourgh all those beautiful pines. Really expensive (try 3 mil and up). Traffic is an issue during the summer months along the main 101 area, but up in the hill there is no traffic.

La Jolla is really expensive for obvious reasons. It's one of the most beautiful places anywhere with homes and pricetags to match. To me, it feels stuck up, stuffy and not really friendly. It's really crowded with cars, rich people, tourists and wanna be rich people which really isn't my scene (although I do like nice cars and nice homes). But that's just me, most San Diegans that I've talked to would pick La Jolla as their dream location.

Carmel Valley is nice, but tract homes are everywhere except up in del mar mesa which is nice with new custom, expensive homes.

The great thing about Leucadia/Encinitas/RSF/Del Mar/La Jolla is that you get top rated schools no matter whether you're in a 1200sqft cottage in Leucadia or a 20,000 sqft mega mansion in RSF.

If I could choose anywhere, it would be Rancho Santa Fe. But I really wouldn't be too dissapointed with anywhere in costal north county (except Oceanside or most of Carlsbad).
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Old 12-06-2006, 03:50 PM
 
Location: WPB, FL. Dreaming of Oil city, PA
2,909 posts, read 13,262,435 times
Reputation: 998
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. of Love View Post
Well, I guess what I am trolling for is info from someone with a longer view of real estate trends from southern CA. Perhaps an older realtor or invester that knows the historical cycling in SD. In my mind, most real estate cycles go 3-5 years on average but I am well aware that there are numerous factors involved and that cycles may stay down or up as long as 10 years or more. Not having lived in SD for 12 years makes me a little out of touch, hence, my viewing of this forum. It seems that SD and most of CA is overvalued resulting in many people leaving. Still, I think there will always be demand in southern CA for obvious reasons. What I don't understand is how so many people are making it there. With an average yearly salary of $50K or so you are either renting or have bought a long time ago. It must be tempting to some folks to cash in their $100k home for $800K and retire to another state where they can live better.
To answer your question, my plan is to stay there long term and I am sure that one day today's $700K home will sound like a sweet price when the average is $2.5 million. I'm just trying to decide if I should move back in 1.5 yrs because the housing is at a low vs. living somewhere else and accelerating my retirement savings before a move back in 4-5 years. If I wait too long and the market is rapidly moving up, it would defeat my efforts to save money for retirement.

I have a friend in San Diego who swears by Scripps Ranch as being one of the great places to live in. Carmel Valley is also good but more expensive. There are some very nice houses in Scripps Ranch as well as Rancho Bernardo
for near a million down to two thirds of a million. At the half million mark, your looking at some smallish houses, townhouses or nice spacious condos.

I am not a realtor nor investor so I can only quote what I read on the news about the house bubble being over and house prices dropping. No one can predict the bottom of the market but many say the bottom is another 2 years away. $2.5 million? highly doubt it, even the rich couldnt afford that and if they could, that kind of money would get them a big mansion elsewhere.

Are you going to retire soon? I wouldnt spend all the retirement money on a house, youll have to pay property taxes and insurance. Id get a cheap house in Ohio, WV or PA and live off the retirement money for life.
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Old 12-06-2006, 06:30 PM
 
12 posts, read 41,527 times
Reputation: 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. of Love View Post
I am thinking of a move back to SD after leaving in 1994. Just like most people, money is a concern, but my target price range will be $600-700K. I am hoping to get the best single family house/ neighborhood to raise kids. With that in mind, what are your predictions/ advice for the best time to buy during the slow-down in real estate? I can't make it happen for another year and a half so hopefully there won't be a rising or already rising market. Is the expectation that this will be a 3-5 year downturn before the next upswing?
Could be a longer down turn as the upturn was longer this past time.

We lived in San Diego from spring 1998 (about a year or so into the first upswing...people were calling the market crazy then when we arrived) through Dec 2002. We then moved to Litchfield Park, AZ (Phoenix) for 3 years, and now have been in Hampstead, NC (between Camp Lejuene and Wilmington) for over 8 months.

Our price per sq ft on the first CA place (a condo) was $130 in Carmel Mountain Ranch. In 2001 we paid $186 per sq ft in 4S Ranch for a small single family home. I've been following a blog for a long while now, http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/ (tip: read the comments made at the end of the articles). It's been pretty on the money. After reading a recent news report saying San Diego was 60% overvalued....I'd be hesitant to buy at current prices even if they are falling unless you get 30-40% off.

We might be transferring back next summer (military...not our 1st choice in duty stations due to cost of living, so hopefully not). This was only a short ground tour for my husband, he'll go back to flying next fall. We will probably have a decent chunk to put down ($250000 or so) and dh makes about $90,000, but I don't think we'll buy unless I find a place we really like for our growing family (looking for 5 bedrooms or more, 2200-3300sqft, care more about layout than sq ft) in 4S, CMR, Scripps or Poway for 30-40% off current market. But, we could be transferred, or out all together, in 3-6 yrs after moving...so it doesn't make as much sense for us to go out on a limb, we'll just rent if we don't find a bargain. If I can't find a 5 bedroom home for a decent price, I'd rather rent a 4 bedroom then buy one. Especially when you add in the taxes...wow, they were not fun there.

I could be wrong, but I do not think it has reached bottom yet. I think things could get much worse as forclosures hit the area in the coming 2-3 years (think about all those ARMs resetting). You may see a "dead cat bounce" in the spring if some on the sidelines think they are getting a deal at 10% off or so....but again...those pesky foreclosures and people leaving the area make the whole thing a dicey propostion...and things could very easily plummet.

BTW, surprisingly enough, we love NC. Hampstead is a few miles inland...jog to the sound (boat ramp down the road a 1/2 mile). Doesn't get hit hard by the hurricanes like the beach homes...though some lots in low areas, or drainage lots can flood...have to be careful. Very affordable housing. We're on a 1/2 acre...lots of trees, 1900 sq ft home...3 bedroom+huge bonus over the garage, great neighborhood, $263000 when bought in May...not bad. We bought since it was a wash compared to renting and we got a larger place w/yard for kids to play in. Schools are real good in Hampstead I hear (mine aren't in yet). Port City Java coffeehouse 2 miles away (w/drive through window too), grocery stores nearby, Wilmington within 15 minutes...no real traffic. Beaches 15-20 minutes and the mountains are less than a days drive. Lot of upscale shopping is now here (Williams Sonoma, Chicos, B&N, etc...), restaurants and more within a 2 hour highway drive to Raleigh/Durham. Lot of transplants moved here this year from FL, NJ & NY when talking with residents, most are families & retirees....great place, wish we didn't have to transfer, but there are no F-18s here
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Old 12-06-2006, 06:39 PM
 
Location: Springfield, Missouri
2,815 posts, read 12,295,577 times
Reputation: 2000001355
Thank goodness you are waiting a year and a half. San Diego has fallen hard in the bubble pop. If you go to RealestatedeclineDOTcom and read the items in the right column, much is based on San Diego and the California Real Estate market. It's a bloodbath right now.
Here's from one article:
Nowpublic.com reports on just how severe the San Diego home value plunge really is and how much worse it will get!!
"San Diego Home Values Drop 10%+ and Look like 30% Drop is Very Possible!"
"Reading the 'industry standard line' one would think the 'Hot' real estate markets of '05 are just 'returning to normal' or in a 'mild correction'. Truth, as far as San Diego CA is concerned is that in many areas the value drop is already into double digits! For San Diego real estate, (and many other of the past super heated real estate cities)the major down turn will not occur until mid 2007. Better put on your seatbelts...it's going to be a big drop!"

Some San Diego zip codes see as much as 33% price declines!

Place Zip Code Pct. change (this is from prices at the peak in 2005, though the article doesn't mention which month was the peak. It's generally agreed that June 05 was the peak nationwide)
Allied Gardens, Del Cerro 92120 -11.10%
Clairemont 92117 -8.60%
North Park 92104 -16.10%
Ocean Beach 92107 -17.80%
Serra Mesa 92123 -12.50%
University City 92122 -8.40%
Lakeside 92040 -5.70%
Carmel Valley 92130 -23.70%
Solana Beach 92075 -33.20%
Bonita 91902 -21.80%

At least by the time you're ready to buy, things should have become clear as far as to what extent the downturn will eventually reach.
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Old 12-06-2006, 08:33 PM
 
3,035 posts, read 13,540,523 times
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90k in the military ? Is he a fleet commander ? That seems abnormally high for the military and I spent 6 years in myself, so I am familiar with the enlisted/comissioned pay structure.
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