When is the 'POP'? (San Diego, Oceanside: fit in, sale, 2014)

[someguy10]

Originally Posted by eastcoastbias

Do we actually know that? There could be a glut bank owned properties and with interest rates so low- banks may be willing to wait for rates to increase.

I don't have easy access to data to indicate if the number of REOs has changed. To a consumer or potential buyer, off-the-market REOs don't matter. Demand is stable but inventory is much lower which is bound to drive up prices, at least for a while.

http://sdar.stats.10kresearch.com/do...eport?src=page p. 7

For all price ranges, inventory for April 2016 was 39% higher than April of this year. It's even more stark for the lower price ranges. For example, in the 250K-500K range, it was 72% higher last April.

[JohnAlt]

Originally Posted by expatCA

Someone told me there was a law about that, but not sure if that is the case or just the banks avoiding putting too many on the market to keep the prices up.

I've wondered about this, because it would explain lack of housing inventory overall which would also lead to higher rents.

The cheerleader main talking point about there being no bubble, besides the supposedly tough mortgage qualification requirements, is that rents are also high so it's just a shortage. Duh, of course it's a shortage, but WHY?

San Diego County had net negative migration at least in 2015, but I keep hearing how everyone wants to live here.


More moving out than into San Diego County - The San Diego Union-Tribune

[someguy10]

Originally Posted by JohnAlt

I've wondered about this, because it would explain lack of housing inventory overall which would also lead to higher rents.

The cheerleader main talking point about there being no bubble, besides the supposedly tough mortgage qualification requirements, is that rents are also high so it's just a shortage. Duh, of course it's a shortage, but WHY?

San Diego County had net negative migration at least in 2015, but I keep hearing how everyone wants to live here.


More moving out than into San Diego County - The San Diego Union-Tribune

One potential explanation for inventory shortage is that potential sellers are trying to time the market. Prices have been rising and still appear to be and potential sellers who aren't actively forced to move by job relo, etc. may trying to wait until the peak to sell. Of course, like a recession, you can never really call a peak until after it's happened. Once it's clear the peak has happened and prices are on their way back down, I wouldn't be surprised to see a large surge in inventory as market-timers who'd been waiting rush to sell. Which of course will drive prices down more.

The article itself acknowledges that the apparent net-negative change could be an anomaly and should be taken lightly. It also says total population increased 1.2% while the resident population decreased. One explanation for that is that foreigners are buying properties but not spending enough time in them (perhaps no time at all) to trigger residency status. Anyway, probably a better gauge of demand is closings which have remained steady.

[tickyul]

No pop, minor corrections here and there........that is the story for the US housing market, from here on out.

If anything resembling a REAL and SUSTAINED correction starts coming-about, expect swift and stern action from Fedgov to put a stop to it.

Also, the US housing market has become collateralized......there is multiple investment vehicles that make housing a very valuable way for billion upon billions of dollars to be invested. This will help stabilize real-estate values in those rocky times and pump-up the values in "bubble" times.

And yes, there is a HUGE base of companies and corporations that invest in
big-blocks of properties for various purposes.......flipping, rentals, buy-hold-sell, etc, etc.

US real-estate has entered a whole new realm.

[JohnAlt]

Originally Posted by tickyul

No pop, minor corrections here and there........that is the story for the US housing market, from here on out.

If anything resembling a REAL and SUSTAINED correction starts coming-about, expect swift and stern action from Fedgov to put a stop to it.

Also, the US housing market has become collateralized......there is multiple investment vehicles that make housing a very valuable way for billion upon billions of dollars to be invested. This will help stabilize real-estate values in those rocky times and pump-up the values in "bubble" times.

And yes, there is a HUGE base of companies and corporations that invest in
big-blocks of properties for various purposes.......flipping, rentals, buy-hold-sell, etc, etc.

US real-estate has entered a whole new realm.

No "they're not making any more land"?

Yeah, it's different this time.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by JohnAlt

I've wondered about this, because it would explain lack of housing inventory overall which would also lead to higher rents.

The cheerleader main talking point about there being no bubble, besides the supposedly tough mortgage qualification requirements, is that rents are also high so it's just a shortage. Duh, of course it's a shortage, but WHY?

San Diego County had net negative migration at least in 2015, but I keep hearing how everyone wants to live here.


More moving out than into San Diego County - The San Diego Union-Tribune

Part of it is the children of residents growing up and wanting their own home, then add in the ones who want to move to SD and the housing sales do not match the need.

[JohnAlt]

Originally Posted by expatCA

Part of it is the children of residents growing up and wanting their own home, then add in the ones who want to move to SD and the housing sales do not match the need.

Or supply has been suppressed somehow. This chart shows that sales VOLUMES in various parts of California have been pretty flat for the last 8 years or so, AND at a level last seen in the mid 1990s.

With a higher population than the mid 1990s (and a pretty weak economy then emerging from recession too) wouldn't we expect more homes to be selling today than back then?

And volumes are clearly lower than the late 1990s through about 2002 and way below the bubble years.

Of course prices are through the roof when supply is low, like when we had $5 gas.


High prices hold back California home sales volume | first tuesday Journal

[LagunaMom]

I live in Phoenix (and I miss the ocean and cooler temps, too) but own rentals in AZ and CA. I don't see it coming.

Best advice is to buy a lakefront home in the Phoenix area and just drive or fly to the Coast or move to the High Desert in the IE (Inland Empire) and drive down when you need to.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by JohnAlt

Or supply has been suppressed somehow. This chart shows that sales VOLUMES in various parts of California have been pretty flat for the last 8 years or so, AND at a level last seen in the mid 1990s.

With a higher population than the mid 1990s (and a pretty weak economy then emerging from recession too) wouldn't we expect more homes to be selling today than back then?

And volumes are clearly lower than the late 1990s through about 2002 and way below the bubble years.

Of course prices are through the roof when supply is low, like when we had $5 gas.


High prices hold back California home sales volume | first tuesday Journal

Two things.

1. The people who own do not want to sell, they are glad they have what they do and can afford it.
2. The banks will only release a certain amount of foreclosures at a time to avoid losing money due to price drops.

Builders are caught to some degree in the middle as minimal land is available, permits and such are extortionate and why sell for less than the market will pay???

[JohnAlt]

Originally Posted by expatCA

Two things.

1. The people who own do not want to sell, they are glad they have what they do and can afford it.
2. The banks will only release a certain amount of foreclosures at a time to avoid losing money due to price drops.

Builders are caught to some degree in the middle as minimal land is available, permits and such are extortionate and why sell for less than the market will pay???

1. This has always been true.

2. Was mark to market ever instituted? If not then yes this makes sense and there really is still a lot of shadow inventory.