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Old 02-27-2018, 09:06 PM
 
Location: San Diego A.K.A "D.A.Y.G.O City"
1,992 posts, read 4,101,648 times
Reputation: 2725

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Quote:
Originally Posted by fedtech View Post
Are this prices sustainable? With mortgage loan interest going up for the past 2 years and prices on home value going up 8 % to 10% year over year. Can it keep going for the next 6 to 12 years ? I don't see salary's going up that high ether at a 1.5% to 2% year over year average for the past few years.

Hardly anyone gets huge raises every year anymore, especially at the rate that home values are increasing at. I don't see how we can sustain massive price gains in the 7-10% like we are seeing today, without causing a massive exodus of families and working people. We all know the poor are screwed in SD, but the middle-class families can't afford CA and SD anymore and not too many people have downpayment cash on hand just to be able to qualify for a loan. This doesn't include if one has debt such as a car payment, credit cards, student loans, any debt you have, goes against your qualifying ability.

You pretty much have to be financially well-off (way upper middle class/rich), already own a home elsewhere, and have hardly any debt to buy a house in SD.

I never used to see many people driving brand new BMW's, Tesla's, and high-end Benzes and Audi's in East County than in the past 2-4 years. East County has always been home to sort of low to middle-class folks, never any wealthy or rich people around, but that has changed fast as home prices have skyrocketed out of reach for the average working family.

Now more and more people with money are moving in and taking over. I see it every day on the roads, I know it's not right to judge someone on the car they drive, but in this case, if you're able to buy a $40,000-100,000 vehicle and afford the monthly car payment, you obviously are doing really well financially.

I saw in a report in the UT just the other day saying that more wealthy people from the East Coast such as people living in NY, NJ, MA and even parts of Illinois have moved to CA in droves from the years 2006-2016 as 6 million people left the state, but 5 million moved in, that leaves 1 million fewer people in CA and those residents were mostly poor and of average incomes. Poor and middle-class Californians are moving to low-cost states such as TX, AZ, NM, Oregon, and Nevada at a high rate. There's another article in the Mercury News stating how there's a high exodus of Bay Area natives leaving the state altogether, even workers from Google can't even afford to live there anymore! What does that tell you?

I wonder how this class imbalance will shape the future of CA and what other serious problems will occur. I've been a loyal Democrat for a long time, but CA Liberal policies are destroying the future of this state and I am starting to realize the negative aspects of it such as the housing crisis that should have been addressed 20+ years ago. All the stupid nanny laws "Can't do this, can't do that, Ban this, Ban that" high taxes for everything, freebies for all doesn't matter you're legal status, high gas prices, crumbling infrastructure that never gets addressed even though we have the money for it, stranglehold environmental laws and so on, it's simply not right. People are fed up, like myself, they're just not saying it out loud.


This housing crisis will never get better, nor is there an answer for it. Unless CA and San Diego goes on a building binge in every part of the county tearing up canyons and hillsides for new housing, the existing prices on homes will keep rising until even wealthy people thinks it's way too much money to live here and decides to not buy homes. CA really needs to redo its environmental laws that allow for easier building for homes and fewer fees and regulations for construction cost too. This is why 90% of new housing in SD is strictly "Luxury" and not just something basic that everyone can afford, because the land, fee's, and labor cost are extraordinarily high.

But whatever, I won't have to deal with SD's and CA's bull**** for too much longer, you guys can.
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Old 02-27-2018, 09:31 PM
 
Location: Riverside Ca
22,165 posts, read 25,610,879 times
Reputation: 35131
Quote:
Originally Posted by oddstray View Post
Unless they've changed it since I did it, it is much easier than you're making it out to be. You don't need "all kinds of proof" - you need three 'comps' (comparable property values).

Even so, as a retiree I'm very glad for Prop 13. I worked hard to have a good retirement, and I'm happy not to have the concern that some out-of-control property tax bill will leave me impoverished, as is not uncommon without something like Prop 13.
It’s really not that easy either. And most people confuse a property’s market value and assessed value. The market value will always go higher faster than assessed value . That’s because assessed value can only go up by 1-2% a year where market value as we see can go up xx% a year.
And asking to reassess a property doesn’t mean they will do it. And n some cases reassessing is detrimental.



Quote:
Originally Posted by sdlife619 View Post
Hardly anyone gets huge raises every year anymore, especially at the rate that home values are increasing at. I don't see how we can sustain massive price gains in the 7-10% like we are seeing today, without causing a massive exodus of families and working people. We all know the poor are screwed in SD, but the middle-class families can't afford CA and SD anymore and not too many people have downpayment cash on hand just to be able to qualify for a loan. This doesn't include if one has debt such as a car payment, credit cards, student loans, any debt you have, goes against your qualifying ability.

You pretty much have to be financially well-off (way upper middle class/rich), already own a home elsewhere, and have hardly any debt to buy a house in SD.

I never used to see many people driving brand new BMW's, Tesla's, and high-end Benzes and Audi's in East County than in the past 2-4 years. East County has always been home to sort of low to middle-class folks, never any wealthy or rich people around, but that has changed fast as home prices have skyrocketed out of reach for the average working family.

Now more and more people with money are moving in and taking over. I see it every day on the roads, I know it's not right to judge someone on the car they drive, but in this case, if you're able to buy a $40,000-100,000 vehicle and afford the monthly car payment, you obviously are doing really well financially.

I saw in a report in the UT just the other day saying that more wealthy people from the East Coast such as people living in NY, NJ, MA and even parts of Illinois have moved to CA in droves from the years 2006-2016 as 6 million people left the state, but 5 million moved in, that leaves 1 million fewer people in CA and those residents were mostly poor and of average incomes. Poor and middle-class Californians are moving to low-cost states such as TX, AZ, NM, Oregon, and Nevada at a high rate. There's another article in the Mercury News stating how there's a high exodus of Bay Area natives leaving the state altogether, even workers from Google can't even afford to live there anymore! What does that tell you?

I wonder how this class imbalance will shape the future of CA and what other serious problems will occur. I've been a loyal Democrat for a long time, but CA Liberal policies are destroying the future of this state and I am starting to realize the negative aspects of it such as the housing crisis that should have been addressed 20+ years ago. All the stupid nanny laws "Can't do this, can't do that, Ban this, Ban that" high taxes for everything, freebies for all doesn't matter you're legal status, high gas prices, crumbling infrastructure that never gets addressed even though we have the money for it, stranglehold environmental laws and so on, it's simply not right. People are fed up, like myself, they're just not saying it out loud.


This housing crisis will never get better, nor is there an answer for it. Unless CA and San Diego goes on a building binge in every part of the county tearing up canyons and hillsides for new housing, the existing prices on homes will keep rising until even wealthy people thinks it's way too much money to live here and decides to not buy homes. CA really needs to redo its environmental laws that allow for easier building for homes and fewer fees and regulations for construction cost too. This is why 90% of new housing in SD is strictly "Luxury" and not just something basic that everyone can afford, because the land, fee's, and labor cost are extraordinarily high.

But whatever, I won't have to deal with SD's and CA's bull**** for too much longer, you guys can.
California has been expensive since the 80s compared to the rest of the country.

Lots of those people you see driving those expensive cars are in debt to their eyeballs.

House prices can only go do high. As long as someone is willing to pay houses will sell.
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Old 02-28-2018, 02:13 AM
 
27,566 posts, read 56,714,061 times
Reputation: 21999
Desirability is the key combined by having the means.

There is a lot of money in this world... and money has long seen US Real Estate as a safe long term haven...

My friends went to school with students from China... those parents bought homes for the kids in anticipation of attending university here.

Don't overlook that a lot of Californians have been cashing out... it could be retiring outside California or to settle estates... show me the money.
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Old 02-28-2018, 12:58 PM
 
7,463 posts, read 5,469,931 times
Reputation: 9401
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ultrarunner View Post
Don't overlook that a lot of Californians have been cashing out... it could be retiring outside California or to settle estates... show me the money.
If so many San Diegans are "cashing out" and moving elsewhere, why is there so little real estate inventory up for sale? Prices in SD County are up 7% over last year; wouldn't home prices be dropping if there was a mass exodus of people?
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Old 02-28-2018, 01:10 PM
 
688 posts, read 614,334 times
Reputation: 705
Quote:
Originally Posted by RosieSD View Post
If so many San Diegans are "cashing out" and moving elsewhere, why is there so little real estate inventory up for sale? Prices in SD County are up 7% over last year; wouldn't home prices be dropping if there was a mass exodus of people?
A better measure of this would be comparing YoY sales volume. It is possible to have very low inventory and still have very high turnover (volume).
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Old 02-28-2018, 01:17 PM
 
27,566 posts, read 56,714,061 times
Reputation: 21999
Quote:
Originally Posted by RosieSD View Post
If so many San Diegans are "cashing out" and moving elsewhere, why is there so little real estate inventory up for sale? Prices in SD County are up 7% over last year; wouldn't home prices be dropping if there was a mass exodus of people?
It is more of a transition...

I know several homes that were sold and never made it to the MLS...

What a difference 5 years make is all I can say... some areas of California had huge inventory with owners holding off due to the glut on the market.

Real Estate in my short tenure has gone through several cycles... so far it has always come back stronger... even if years later.
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Old 03-01-2018, 08:56 AM
 
1,598 posts, read 729,481 times
Reputation: 1035
Quote:
Originally Posted by RosieSD View Post
If so many San Diegans are "cashing out" and moving elsewhere, why is there so little real estate inventory up for sale? Prices in SD County are up 7% over last year; wouldn't home prices be dropping if there was a mass exodus of people?
Prop 13. Foreign investment is allowed. Tax breaks for 2nd homes.

Eliminate those 3 things and rework the property tax system so that it's not assessed on value, and watch the supply of homes increase.
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Old 03-01-2018, 09:01 AM
 
Location: San Diego
40,590 posts, read 36,428,986 times
Reputation: 24853
Quote:
Originally Posted by metoque View Post
Prop 13. Foreign investment is allowed. Tax breaks for 2nd homes.

Eliminate those 3 things and rework the property tax system so that it's not assessed on value, and watch the supply of homes increase.
None of that increases land available to build on here.
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Old 03-01-2018, 09:05 AM
 
1,598 posts, read 729,481 times
Reputation: 1035
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer View Post
None of that increases land available to build on here.
Think outside the box. Many of the homes in CA are owned by foreign investors, and rich people with 2nd/3rd/4th homes. Remove those from the equation, and voila.
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Old 03-01-2018, 02:51 PM
 
27,566 posts, read 56,714,061 times
Reputation: 21999
Quote:
Originally Posted by metoque View Post
Prop 13. Foreign investment is allowed. Tax breaks for 2nd homes.

Eliminate those 3 things and rework the property tax system so that it's not assessed on value, and watch the supply of homes increase.
And the cost of owning...
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