Is It Ever Going To Rain In San Diego Again (buy, moving)

[Jenkay]

Originally Posted by moved

It doesn't look like it.

NOAA says 70% chance of rain tonight.

[moved]

I just check Weatherbug and Weather Underground, and go by what they say.

[citizensadvocate]

Interesting despite all that humidity we got this year pretty much all the rain this summer including from Hurricane Rosa somehow evaporated before reaching the ground in California except on mountains over 4000ft. I still remember feeling like it rained once but mostly it was change in temperatures and humidity but hardly any raindrops hit the ground back in August. I would be curious why is that even though the humidity is so high.

[malcorub16]

Originally Posted by moved

I just check Weatherbug and Weather Underground, and go by what they say.

...and what do they say?

[moved]

Originally Posted by malcorub16

...and what do they say?

WU says 20% today, and 40% tonight, but the little clouds show rain at 8pm with a 40% chance, and continuing until 3am.

WeatherBug says 50% today, and nothing tonight.

[citizensadvocate]

All the rain chances on weather forecasts since last August seem to get jinxed on the actual day its supposed to come. Though with chances dropping by each and every day to when its due to fall.

[Jenkay]

Originally Posted by moved

WU says 20% today, and 40% tonight, but the little clouds show rain at 8pm with a 40% chance, and continuing until 3am.

WeatherBug says 50% today, and nothing tonight.

Hmmm. The fun thing about all of this is they're all different interpretations of the same data/models. The thing I particularly like about NOAA is that in the forecast discussion they talk in some detail about the different models, what they show, and how they arrive at their predictions (great for us science/meteorology nerds!). But whichever source you look at, it should be interesting to see what actually happens. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for some rain

(It's worth it to note that while NOAA is predicting a 70% chance, they make a point of saying they're not expecting any sort of impressive rainfall- we're looking at 1/10 to 1/4 inch at most. )

[TacoSoup]

Originally Posted by Jenkay

Hmmm. The fun thing about all of this is they're all different interpretations of the same data/models. The thing I particularly like about NOAA is that in the forecast discussion they talk in some detail about the different models, what they show, and how they arrive at their predictions (great for us science/meteorology nerds!). But whichever source you look at, it should be interesting to see what actually happens. I'm still keeping my fingers crossed for some rain

(It's worth it to note that while NOAA is predicting a 70% chance, they make a point of saying they're not expecting any sort of impressive rainfall- we're looking at 1/10 to 1/4 inch at most. )

I remember a professor nearly 25 years ago saying a meteorologist is no better than a good hitter in baseball, they’ll only be successful about 30% of the time. I seriously doubt it’s even that high with our rain predictions. The extended forecast two weeks ago had it raining M-Th + Saturday this week. Obviously it’s pretty “easy” to predict the weather when you’re in an environment, like us, that has little change much of the year. All bets are off when you need to predict inclement weather. I see not much has changed with all the advancements of their Doppler radar 5000, or whatever the news calls it on tv these days.

[moved]

WU is now predicting t-storms at 7:30.

[Encinitan]

Originally Posted by TacoSoup

I remember a professor nearly 25 years ago saying a meteorologist is no better than a good hitter in baseball, they’ll only be successful about 30% of the time. I seriously doubt it’s even that high with our rain predictions. The extended forecast two weeks ago had it raining M-Th + Saturday this week. Obviously it’s pretty “easy” to predict the weather when you’re in an environment, like us, that has little change much of the year. All bets are off when you need to predict inclement weather. I see not much has changed with all the advancements of their Doppler radar 5000, or whatever the news calls it on tv these days.

What I've always heard in defense of the argument you've made is this ... it's harder to predict the weather in San Diego and the West Coast because the storms typically move from off the ocean and onto land, and we have less observational posts at sea than we do over land. So while landlocked cities can look to populated areas where the storm has hit before them to gauge how bad it'll be when it gets to their town, we don't have that advantage.
Seems like with computer modeling it wouldn't be that much of an issue, but many years ago, I interviewed a NWS weather guy and that's what he said. Don't know if it's true, but that's what he said.