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With vaccines dominating the news, I was wondering what everyone thinks about what the schools will be doing come August 2021. I would say this school year is a wash - even if best case vaccines are somewhat readily available by April or so, I don't think they'd bother trying to rush back at the tail end of the school year. So the question is, where will the schools be in August 2021 for the new year? Full time onsite, hybrid 50% schedule, or all virtual?
Our school is currently hybrid, and it's failing us as a family so we're considering full time onsite private school options. If we go private, it'd be either right now or starting August 2021 and we'd then commit to finish out the K-8 years in the private school.
Curious what your predictions are, since I don't see any actual written guidelines about full on re-opening criteria for any district? Based on past events, our district seems to drag feet, so I could see that once the green light is given for full reopening, they'd still take a few months to then start developing a return to campus plan (vs. doing it now). I could see a scenario in which vaccines and/or therapeutics could be readily available by say June/July, but would that be enough for schools to go ahead and re-open? I doubt it. Guessing they can't force vaccinations on the teachers, so the unions could still hold up the re-opening based on risk of infection? Or, even if they did all get vaccinated over the summer, the aforementioned phased return plan would still need to be developed and postpone a full re-opening even longer?
I realize no one can predict the future, but I'd enjoy hearing how people see the school stuff shaking out. Granted, if the vaccines fall through and get us nowhere, then I see it being at least 2022 (or maybe forever) until public schools break out of the hybrid/virtual model. We could probably stick it out for the rest of this school year, but the idea of hybrid/virtual into the 2021-2022 school year would definitely push us toward just going ahead with private school starting now.
No new reopenings under purple, so as long as the stupid color codes stay, expect a lot of delays. Also, the 2022 school year might as well be a century away in terms of what can happen between then and now. If there is a reopening before there's an effective vaccine and a sufficient amount of herd immunity, you should expect alternate schedules/hybrid because the biggest problems (like I pointed out on your other thread) are with full capacity classrooms.
It sounds like your gripe is more about teachers and their respective unions more than anything. State law requires things like TB tests for school staff, so I wouldn't discount mandatory covid testing. It's available and encouraged in the district I work but I don't teach and that's a different contract. I expect that would be negotiated though, as maybe vaccination too. I also bet the state will require it for students. One last thing, from someone who sees this on the front lines, you're wrong about there being no planning for the future going on. There's more to consider than you realize.
tl;dr --- this school year is off the table for full reopening, next year doesn't look good either right now
If things don't get back to near normal by the end of this school year (to give us hope for 21-22), we'll have a mass exodos out of California and like minded states from families who want their kids in school. In person school is an essential service, and all teachers must get back soon or leave forever. We are ruining the lives of all of our kids in order to try and extend the lives of the very sick and old by a few months or years. #kidsfirst
No new reopenings under purple, so as long as the stupid color codes stay, expect a lot of delays. Also, the 2022 school year might as well be a century away in terms of what can happen between then and now. If there is a reopening before there's an effective vaccine and a sufficient amount of herd immunity, you should expect alternate schedules/hybrid because the biggest problems (like I pointed out on your other thread) are with full capacity classrooms.
It sounds like your gripe is more about teachers and their respective unions more than anything. State law requires things like TB tests for school staff, so I wouldn't discount mandatory covid testing. It's available and encouraged in the district I work but I don't teach and that's a different contract. I expect that would be negotiated though, as maybe vaccination too. I also bet the state will require it for students. One last thing, from someone who sees this on the front lines, you're wrong about there being no planning for the future going on. There's more to consider than you realize.
tl;dr --- this school year is off the table for full reopening, next year doesn't look good either right now
I apologize if I conveyed that there is no planning going on, but based on what I've seen, it either hasn't been done very well or hasn't been transparent enough to make the community at large believe it has been done very well. They could be doing a fantastic job behind the scenes, but the community doesn't see it, only the end result. This may not be true for your district, but it is true of mine. I perhaps should be kinder with my wording, and I'll try again. Let me know if this is a fairer way to say it: Based on past events, when a full return is authorized per federal/state/local criteria, whatever the case may be, parents should anticipate a possible/probable lengthy planning phase that will not be completed prior to meeting said criteria. Even if/when hypothetically near 100% vaccination or other type of immunity is met within the school community, it should be expected that a planning/training phase of weeks/months will be needed prior to full reopening.
If we can agree that is a less antagonistic way to state the situation, then the dialogue could focus more on the question at hand: Even if/when all criteria are met (which is another issue altogether, what are the criteria? I can't find them written anywhere), what are forum members predictions on when the schools will fully re-open?
I definitely see a "can do" scenario for Fall 2021 re-opening if things play out right over the next 6 months, but I really do appreciate your skepticism over even opening in 2021/2022. I'd love for the district to provide exact criteria by which a full re-opening could occur. Then we could all collectively plan toward a more certain outcome, rather than postulate and attack/defend the various players involved. Information and transparency is key.
Once more, teachers aren't setting policies. The state is behind the scheme that keeps schools closed.
I agree school is essential. I've done my share of griping about zoom school being a poor substitute for the real stuff. Remote learning was intended as a stopgap measure. However the fact that teaching can be done remotely is why there's a difference between it as an essential service, vs. fire protection, law enforcement or medical services. Those don't have the remote option with a few exceptions for the latter of the three. You're way off base about teachers not wanting to go back to class too. I spend a lot of time with a lot of teachers. How about you? Some are concerned not just for their own well-being, but for the well-being of those around them. Different communities within the county have markedly different rates of covid infections too. One teacher I know takes care of an elderly parent who's in multiple risk categories. It's pretty brutal to say they don't matter in the equation because they've only got a few months left by your estimate.
I get the frustrations but I'm patient and also get the big picture too. I've said since this all started that schools could be reopened safely if they poured a ton of staff (and money) into it. But the amount of effort just to abide by the protocols for the limited reopening in my district is astonishingly high. Multiply that by hundreds and that's what a full day, full classroom, full week schedule would look like. The support for that just isn't there. Trust me.
I apologize if I conveyed that there is no planning going on, but based on what I've seen, it either hasn't been done very well or hasn't been transparent enough to make the community at large believe it has been done very well. They could be doing a fantastic job behind the scenes, but the community doesn't see it, only the end result. This may not be true for your district, but it is true of mine. I perhaps should be kinder with my wording, and I'll try again. Let me know if this is a fairer way to say it: Based on past events, when a full return is authorized per federal/state/local criteria, whatever the case may be, parents should anticipate a possible/probable lengthy planning phase that will not be completed prior to meeting said criteria. Even if/when hypothetically near 100% vaccination or other type of immunity is met within the school community, it should be expected that a planning/training phase of weeks/months will be needed prior to full reopening.
No need to apologize. I don't take this stuff to heart. I get the frustration too. Believe me. My kids are stuck in the same daily grind of zoom meetings and missing out on their childhood. But I know it's going to be temporary too.
If I remember it right, you're in PUSD. I just looked and it appears they plan to shadow the decisions of other districts' reopening plans, most notably SDUSD which has been pretty transparent. That might be a good source for what to expect. You're probably right about what the lead up to a reopening would like in that it won't just happen overnight. But then, reaching the levels of a full reopening won't either (imo), even after a vaccine is widely circulated.
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If we can agree that is a less antagonistic way to state the situation, then the dialogue could focus more on the question at hand: Even if/when all criteria are met (which is another issue altogether, what are the criteria? I can't find them written anywhere), what are forum members predictions on when the schools will fully re-open?
I definitely see a "can do" scenario for Fall 2021 re-opening if things play out right over the next 6 months, but I really do appreciate your skepticism over even opening in 2021/2022. I'd love for the district to provide exact criteria by which a full re-opening could occur. Then we could all collectively plan toward a more certain outcome, rather than postulate and attack/defend the various players involved. Information and transparency is key.
I don't think you're going to find exact criteria anytime soon because the situation is so dynamic. If you're limiting this to a post-vaccine period, it's even further up in the air. There just isn't a hard reboot in the future. I want to be wrong about this because as I said, I've got kids too. But I have an inkling of how these things work and most of the policy right now is tracking back to what the state says. So the question really is (to me), does the color code scheme go away once a vaccine is circulated? I'm guessing no, not immediately. The hard part of planning a reopening right now is there are too many unknown variables and a vaccine doesn't totally diminish those unknowns. I also hope we don't lose so much staff by that point that a reopening becomes a scramble to hire people back.
No need to apologize. I don't take this stuff to heart. I get the frustration too. Believe me. My kids are stuck in the same daily grind of zoom meetings and missing out on their childhood. But I know it's going to be temporary too.
If I remember it right, you're in PUSD. I just looked and it appears they plan to shadow the decisions of other districts' reopening plans, most notably SDUSD which has been pretty transparent. That might be a good source for what to expect. You're probably right about what the lead up to a reopening would like in that it won't just happen overnight. But then, reaching the levels of a full reopening won't either (imo), even after a vaccine is widely circulated.
I don't think you're going to find exact criteria anytime soon because the situation is so dynamic. If you're limiting this to a post-vaccine period, it's even further up in the air. There just isn't a hard reboot in the future. I want to be wrong about this because as I said, I've got kids too. But I have an inkling of how these things work and most of the policy right now is tracking back to what the state says. So the question really is (to me), does the color code scheme go away once a vaccine is circulated? I'm guessing no, not immediately.
I agree with it being dynamic, but I do think some worst case planning and wargaming of various scenarios could be done and communicated. I'm sure it's being done, just not communicated. One would think that if 100% vaccination has been done of students and teachers, then they could re-open? I'd be curious to know if there would be anything else on top of that. I think that is what I mean by criteria, and what has been frustrating in the past with regard to communication and lack of transparency. All summer, it was indicated via letters from the district emails that once we were in a certain state color code, the 50/50 hybrid model would start, but then once that happened, we got a parent letter saying 2 weeks of planning were needed. Speaking to 2 teachers at the school after the fact, they knew the 2 week delay would be there way back in the summer. So that is an example of what I'm talking about, the lack of communication and transparency from whoever controls the district information flow. Even if the situation is dynamic, I think that kind of general outline could/should be planned and communicated so everyone is prepared.
I'm trying to put any blame assigning in the rearview, and progress toward how we can all help plan a better return. I think open communication about current plans, potential future plans, even in a dynamic environment would set a lot of folks at ease.
It looks like PUSD has at least a rough draft of what criteria needs to be met for a full reopening in its secondary schools (and I assume that means the lower grades would be included by default/already open at that point). It's on page 36.
Of the four they list, the first three (state guidelines go away, county goes to orange or governor orders schools open) are entirely out of their hands. But because they say only one is a requirement, number four (staff returns to campus) on the list makes it sound like they'd reopen even in a stricter tier if it could be bargained with teachers. That's far more permissive than SDUSD, for whatever that's worth.
I agree with it being dynamic, but I do think some worst case planning and wargaming of various scenarios could be done and communicated. I'm sure it's being done, just not communicated. One would think that if 100% vaccination has been done of students and teachers, then they could re-open? I'd be curious to know if there would be anything else on top of that.
Have you reached out to board members, is there an active PTA? Just wondering. I doubt you're going to get detailed answers to the above because it will probably all come down to what the district negotiates with the teachers. Once that begins, they'll probably be more forthcoming. According to the rough draft I posted above, at the point where a vaccine is being administered and the case numbers (presumably) drop the county to 'orange' or it falls to that level on its own, PUSD says it will reopen. The bar is pretty low if that info is correct (it's dated October). I'm thinking we'd hit that point far before vaccinations are at 100%.
edit: I may have confused you with another poster. Someone said they were in Poway Unified.
Location: San Diego CA>Tijuana, BC>San Antonio, TX
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Is Poway Unified back in school at least part time? If so, were the kids allowed back to school this week after SD County went "purple"?
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