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Old 06-11-2021, 02:00 PM
 
Location: Tijuana Exurbs
4,541 posts, read 12,406,148 times
Reputation: 6280

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While I'm sure this is mostly about low interest rates, I wonder if any of the spike in San Diego home prices can be attributed to the zoning changes enacted by the City.

On any single family lot in the city you can add an additional 3 units, and in some areas more. Therefore, when evaluating a purchase a developer can add in the rental income from the extra units he plans to build, goosing the price he can pay.
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Old 06-12-2021, 07:46 AM
 
Location: Knoxville, TN
11,505 posts, read 6,008,999 times
Reputation: 22544
Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeSanDiegoHomes View Post
I'm not saavy enough to superimpose the graphs. I have back to 2004. It doesn't really look the same to me. With that said, I make no claims that it won't slow down. It just didn't have last month, or the previous 12 before that.

Median Sales price
https://sdmls.stats.showingtime.com/.../s-v1/Xhp2-wpS


Percent of original ask
https://sdmls.stats.showingtime.com/.../s-v1/Xhp7-dRo


Sold listings
https://sdmls.stats.showingtime.com/.../s-v1/Xhpb-VHj
Thank you for posting.

I am most interested in the "sold listings" at bottom. I don't know. It does appear the San Diego boom is real, rather than just a bubble. So sales really may not slow down anytime soon.

I'm sold. I think San Diego is the real deal.

Thank you again for your help.
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Old 06-12-2021, 09:52 AM
 
9,527 posts, read 30,480,690 times
Reputation: 6440
If 1000 homes are sold and the median is 500k
Or 2 homes are sold and the median is 500k,
The median is the same.

As long as supply stays low, prices can keep shooting up.

Statistics are not necessarily meaningful, especially if you have no context.
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Old 06-12-2021, 10:20 AM
 
Location: San Diego CA
8,489 posts, read 6,894,642 times
Reputation: 17029
Careful folks. Remember 2008 when the market crashed and many owners faced foreclosures and there were bargain basement short sales. In 2009 I bought a condo for 50% of what the original owner paid in 2006. Things go up and down.
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Old 06-12-2021, 03:05 PM
 
9,527 posts, read 30,480,690 times
Reputation: 6440
Quote:
Originally Posted by msgsing View Post
Careful folks. Remember 2008 when the market crashed and many owners faced foreclosures and there were bargain basement short sales. In 2009 I bought a condo for 50% of what the original owner paid in 2006. Things go up and down.
They do, but the 2008 housing market crash was precipitated by an economic collapse that destroyed millions of jobs.... just like the COVID pandemic.

The real question everyone should be asking, is why are so few people willing to sell their homes? I have a theory but wondering what the conventional wisdom is out there.
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Old 06-12-2021, 04:49 PM
 
2,209 posts, read 1,784,613 times
Reputation: 2649
Quote:
Originally Posted by NYSD1995 View Post
They do, but the 2008 housing market crash was precipitated by an economic collapse that destroyed millions of jobs.... just like the COVID pandemic.

The real question everyone should be asking, is why are so few people willing to sell their homes? I have a theory but wondering what the conventional wisdom is out there.
They can afford to live in them, do not want to move and know if they ever need to or want to, they will have a nice amount of money from the sale.

What makes anyone think a lot of people want to move and sell their house right now????
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Old 06-12-2021, 05:26 PM
 
Location: San Diego
50,316 posts, read 47,056,299 times
Reputation: 34087
I just helped my Mom Refi with these low low rates. She is in E Clairemont and her place appraised at 880K. This is astonishing. My place is well over 1.3 million now. Ridiculous. We paid 150 grand in 1998.
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Old 06-12-2021, 09:52 PM
 
Location: Sandy Eggo's North County
10,309 posts, read 6,847,363 times
Reputation: 16893
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1AngryTaxPayer View Post
I just helped my Mom Refi with these low low rates. She is in E Clairemont and her place appraised at 880K. This is astonishing. My place is well over 1.3 million now. Ridiculous. We paid 150 grand in 1998.
Yup, with a tax base from $150K. (Annually adjusted by big Dan McAlister!)
This is why it makes no sense to sell a house with a lower prop. tax cost, and replace it with a similar or smaller house, with a tax cost increase of 800%...
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Old 06-12-2021, 10:34 PM
 
Location: Clairemont
179 posts, read 201,740 times
Reputation: 265
Quote:
Originally Posted by Igor Blevin View Post
Thank you for posting.

I am most interested in the "sold listings" at bottom. I don't know. It does appear the San Diego boom is real, rather than just a bubble. So sales really may not slow down anytime soon.

I'm sold. I think San Diego is the real deal.

Thank you again for your help.
Happy to share these. I can't predict the future and things could crash tomorrow. I had been a pessimist for years and was wrong. I thought half a mil for a house in Clairemont was insane. I was wrong and accept I don't know where it goes. Only sharing where it is!
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Old 06-12-2021, 11:55 PM
 
Location: San Diego
1,539 posts, read 1,484,375 times
Reputation: 1591
Quote:
Originally Posted by Racer46 View Post
What makes anyone think a lot of people want to move and sell their house right now????
Who said a lot of people want to sell? There is a middle ground between a lot wanting to sell and almost nobody wanting to sell.

The point is the number of sellers is historically low. Got a theory on that?
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