Feb 2010 - Time to buy in San Diego or North County? (Carlsbad: short sales, rent)

[cainnewyork1]

Hello All, we moved from Chicago to N. San Diego last summer. The housing was too crazy for us to dive into at that time, so we are renting in N. County, on the border of Carlsbad and San Marcos. Nice area, but we are not sure about schools long term (high school).
We have been looking for a house, but it is very hit or miss - inventory of used homes in our price range (4br/3ba, <$700K) is not THAT great, as most are short sales that are hard to close. These homes sold for $800K+ during boom, but now are short-selling for $600-650, but there seem to be a lot of games with the agents, etc. Also, recently, we realized that for some reason, NEW homes are selling for about the same or cheaper than the old ones we have been looking at. SO, I am asking for your opinion/ advice on
1. whether now is a good time to buy, or we are better off waiting.
2. Would you buy used or new.
3. and would you buy value/size in San Marcos/SEH, or go for better schools but less space in Carlsbad or down in Rancho Bernardo/Poway. (we have 2 kids).
Thanks

[djxpress]

San Marcos is hit or miss. My sis has a sweet house in SM but it's on a cul de sac overlooking a hill. She doesn't have kids yet, so I dunno about the schools. I do know that the Poway school system is one of the best in SD, Carlsbad's not too bad either. IMHO You'd get more house with a great school system in Poway (don't know about RB). You'd get a great school system in Carlsbad, but it's more expensive than Poway or SM. Also, there's gangs in SM.

I grew up in Carlsbad, and I'd have to say the only problems I ever ran into as a kid were how to sneak out at night, and who would be my alibi when I said I was spending the night somewhere.

[Encinitan]

Originally Posted by cainnewyork1

Hello All, we moved from Chicago to N. San Diego last summer. The housing was too crazy for us to dive into at that time, so we are renting in N. County, on the border of Carlsbad and San Marcos. Nice area, but we are not sure about schools long term (high school).
We have been looking for a house, but it is very hit or miss - inventory of used homes in our price range (4br/3ba, <$700K) is not THAT great, as most are short sales that are hard to close. These homes sold for $800K+ during boom, but now are short-selling for $600-650, but there seem to be a lot of games with the agents, etc. Also, recently, we realized that for some reason, NEW homes are selling for about the same or cheaper than the old ones we have been looking at. SO, I am asking for your opinion/ advice on
1. whether now is a good time to buy, or we are better off waiting.
2. Would you buy used or new.
3. and would you buy value/size in San Marcos/SEH, or go for better schools but less space in Carlsbad or down in Rancho Bernardo/Poway. (we have 2 kids).
Thanks

Overall, it's really hard to say where the RE market is. People will say the worst is still ahead of us, others will say otherwise. I think it's hit bottom, maybe a bit more to go down, but the big drops in value are over. From here, it'll be a slower climb in value, not like the crazy balloon increase we saw starting in 2000.
1) I think it's ok to buy now IF you find the house you want, for the price you want/can afford, and you plan to stay a long time (not a flip situation). If you are buying a home and not an investment, I say now's good.
2) I have only owned existing older homes. I like the established communities and the quality of construction you see in older homes. The newer communities always feel like Disneyland or The Truman Show to me, not to mention the lot sizes. Plus, I'm a beach guy so the coast is mostly older homes with newer homes inland.
3) Location, location, location. Don't buy a big ol' house in the sticks that you'll sit in like a tomb because you are far away from what you enjoy. Buy a smaller house in a better location before a bigger house in a less desirable location every time.

[djxpress]

Originally Posted by Encinitan

2) I have only owned existing older homes. I like the established communities and the quality of construction you see in older homes. The newer communities always feel like Disneyland or The Truman Show to me, not to mention the lot sizes.

My parents have a house that was built in the 70s in La Costa. in the 2000s they extended our neighborhood to build the new La Costa Valley. The houses are really close together, literally like 10 feet apart and they sit on really small lots. You can just tell the houses are built cheaply. The houses take up 3/4 of the lot. Backyards are right on top of each other. Those houses are currently listed around $700-$900k. I'd take a house that was older and had all the kinks ironed out, that sells for 3/4ths that price anyday.

[Encinitan]

Originally Posted by djxpress

My parents have a house that was built in the 70s in La Costa. in the 2000s they extended our neighborhood to build the new La Costa Valley. The houses are really close together, literally like 10 feet apart and they sit on really small lots. You can just tell the houses are built cheaply. The houses take up 3/4 of the lot. Backyards are right on top of each other. Those houses are currently listed around $700-$900k. I'd take a house that was older and had all the kinks ironed out, that sells for 3/4ths that price anyday.

Yeah, we bought in Village Park (Encinitas), built in 1973. 8,000 sq foot lot with a canyon view, it's tract housing but after so long of landscaping and people adding on and such, it doesn't feel like tract housing. Certainly not as tracty as the newer communities like you mentioned. Have you seen the area out off Rancho Santa Fe Road and Melrose, for instance? The growth out there is amazing. That was literally the sticks just 10 years ago. And out behind Torrey Pines High School? That was empty fields.

[cainnewyork1]

Thanks all. Yes I agree that location is important. We don't mind new right now Simply bc it is easier with kids. We would love to be in Encinitas or Carlsbad, but can't get much in our price range. Up the road in san Marcos, nicer parts, they are selling 3000 sqft homes for that. Maybe we will look more in poway, rb, 4s.

[esmith143]

Time to buy was last March. IMHO. By now we're largely back to the efficient markets paradigm, which, in this aspect, basically says that it does not matter if you rent or buy, because it'll cost you the same. It's up to you to decide which choice you prefer, how much you're willing to spend, and how far you're willing to commute for additional 500 sf of living space.

[cainnewyork1]

Yes, in retrospect you may be right. But our timing was not that good. Compared to most other markets, California is somewhat unusual. We were not familiar with short sales, or "bidding up" from the listing price. We put full price offers on 3, and bid-up 40k more than the list price, but no luck. So we decided to wait a while. And here we are.
Commute wise we have opposite problem, ie we work in north county, so living in east Carlsbad or nicer parts of san Marcos would be easiest. But we like RB, poway, 4s ranch because of the good schools, bit more diversity, and proximity to SD. As native san diegans, what is your perception of these areas?

[lrmsd]

I personally think prices will continue to drop in certain neighborhoods/areas...some areas I think will go down faster than others,but still gradual,not abrupt as has recently happened.

I agree with you about going with less in an area you want to be. kids love being cozy,honestly,they care that their parents are happy,until they get to be teens,and they want a bit of space/freedom. And,of course,if schools are an issue for the future,then don't do SM if you already know they aren't great for you. IMHO,of course.

I still say prices will go down further....

[native56]

Find a chart on mortgage resets and you will see that we are entering a period of accellerating loan defaults. There are lots more forclosures coming soon and prices will continue to go down. You will be able to buy much cheaper in the future.