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Old 07-20-2014, 08:25 PM
 
Location: Oakland, CA
1,148 posts, read 2,981,599 times
Reputation: 857

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Hi folks,

I know by now the gentrification of SF and rising housing costs in the Bay Area have been discussed ad nauseam. But I want to ask more specifically if you all plan to stay in the area and for how long? Do you find the rapidly rising housing costs, not just shocking, but also unsettling? Does it make you feel unstable and feel like you don't know what to expect in the next few years?

Because that is what is happening to me. The rapid changes are contributing greatly to my feelings of uncertainty about the future. When we first moved to SF, we saw a spacious 2 bedroom for rent in the South Beach neighborhood for just $2,400 a month. What do you think about that? It probably goes for $4,000 now.

That was back in early 2010. Even though the economy was still in the pits, it still seemed like we could know what to expect in the next couple of years and plan around it.

Now, I feel uncertain. First, we are renting a place right now and even though we can pay now, we know when it comes time to renew it will go up. We would still be able to afford the rent if it went up somewhat, but I would not feel good about such a rapid increase. It just seems like money down the drain and starts to change the equation in my mind if I am getting good value or not. But then if it did go up, it is not like I'd have much of a choice because there aren't a lot of other places that are as good. I'd have to leave the neighborhood, city, or region altogether.

We want to buy a place but there is a lack of good inventory in Oakland. I don't want to live in SF again even though they are building stuff now. But in both places, the competition will be fierce to buy. So there is uncertainty that we'd be able to find a place we'd want to buy, and be able to buy it.

Then there is this uncertainty about if we are in a tech bubble or not. Everything went up so fast it doesn't seem stable or right. Like if we did buy a place, we'd be buying at the peak which would not be wise. Also, if we are in a tech bubble, when will it burst? Eventually the growth has to slow down or pull back. What will happen to the area if that were to happen? I don't think we'll see a tech bubble burst like the dot com one, but there will be a contraction at some point.

Then I've read there is all this international wealthy people buying property here. So there is uncertainty from that as well as global influences can really affect the home prices here. Having all these foreign people own property here and not even living here all the time, what sort of impacts will that have on the city?

So much things undetermined. I guess uncertainty is always a part of life, but because the changes have happened so fast, it is even more unsettling.

I have no idea what I will be doing and where in the next 2-3 years now. If the home prices were more stable and only slowly rising, and the changes happening now did not happen or only did so very slowly, I'd probably find a good place to buy and hunker down for a good haul.

I also don't like the changes in the ambiance of the city. That is why I left. The car congestion, level of noise, and strain on infrastructure and city was getting too annoying and stressful.

Please chime in if you have similar thoughts and/or feelings.
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Old 07-20-2014, 08:37 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,287 posts, read 9,770,468 times
Reputation: 6509
I think it is great, I have seen a 30% increase in my homes value since purchased in sept 2012.

I hope it goes up in the future, but I know it will have peaks and valleys. I am in this for the long haul though and plan to have my house paid off well before I am retired.

One last thing, gentrification is welcome in my neighborhood. I can look past the toast bar.
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Old 07-20-2014, 09:10 PM
 
Location: Oakland, CA
1,148 posts, read 2,981,599 times
Reputation: 857
Quote:
Originally Posted by shooting4life View Post
I think it is great, I have seen a 30% increase in my homes value since purchased in sept 2012.

I hope it goes up in the future, but I know it will have peaks and valleys. I am in this for the long haul though and plan to have my house paid off well before I am retired.

One last thing, gentrification is welcome in my neighborhood. I can look past the toast bar.
Great for you that you are benefiting from the rising home costs. Do you think the character that SF is changing into is more to your preference than previously? Or is it more like, you don't favor it but you also don't really mind?
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Old 07-20-2014, 09:17 PM
 
Location: SF Bay Area
12,287 posts, read 9,770,468 times
Reputation: 6509
Quote:
Originally Posted by mini_cute View Post
Great for you that you are benefiting from the rising home costs. Do you think the character that SF is changing into is more to your preference than previously? Or is it more like, you don't favor it but you also don't really mind?
I think every city changes. It is part of the soul of a city such as SF, you just have to accept it and see where it goes. Fighting it will always be a losing battle, it is how the current version of the city came to be how ever many years ago.
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Old 07-20-2014, 09:20 PM
 
Location: SW King County, WA
6,400 posts, read 8,228,286 times
Reputation: 6565
I have mixed feelings. It's nice to see a lot of Oakland has cleaned up, but I'm not sure how much longer my partner and I can put up with renting. We love our neighborhood, but the asking price for a condo similar to our 2BR/2BA apartment in JLS is just insane right now. We tried to buy a house last year and threw our hands up after routinely getting outbid by 50-100k on our all-cash offers. It looks like things have cooled down a bit, but now is obviously a terrible time to buy. In reality, a lot depends on my career and work situation. I've been pretty comfortable for the past 3 years, but in the next few months I'm going to start weighing my options to see what will be best for my career. That might mean moving back to SoCal, out to Sac, and possibly out of state or even the country (it's a long shot, but maybe worth considering). The bottom line is that while I've loved living in the Bay Area for the last 8 or so years, the COL just keeps getting higher and higher. I'm not a college student or grad student anymore, so my threshold for the BS that comes with living here is starting to get lower and lower. It makes me sad to think that in 2-3 years I might not even be living here, but I'm not going to live in a cracker box in a crappy neighborhood just to stay in the Bay Area. I spent way too long in school and worked too hard to get where I am, and I'd like to eventually be able to own a home instead of just being subject to whatever rents dictate. One thing I will say is that I'm starting to like SF less and less. Not sure if it's techies or just the general vibe, but it just doesn't seem as fun an eclectic as it used to. I've noticed it trickle into Oakland over the last few years too. It's great that Oakland is suddenly seen as "cool" and "hip", but this really isn't news to people who've lived here for a while. A lot of us never even wanted to live in SF and aren't exactly happy with how expensive the city (Oakland) has gotten. Couple that in with absolutely terrible city leadership and it really leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
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Old 07-20-2014, 11:23 PM
 
Location: California
37,042 posts, read 41,972,100 times
Reputation: 34837
I think a lot of people will leave and that's not necessarily a bad thing. They will take their skills and talents elsewhere and this whole boom/bust cycle will start again, here or somewhere else, like it always does. I understand that things "don't seem the same" to but it's partly because when you get older you aren't the same either.

I've lived in the Bay Area my whole life and have seen prices soar and crash and soar again. The cycles seem to happen at a faster clip these days. I'm glad that the many sketchy places are turning into something more desirable. (I don't hold to the idea that we have to preserve anything outside of a museum) but it means their will be a ton of change and not everyone is going to benefit from it. When an area improves (and we ALL want that) prices go up. There isn't an alternative.

If I was young and starting out I'd probably be moving further out, or looking at the areas that have yet to be improved. Places that aren't quite there yet. I know lot's of people who had to do that in the 90's, it's like they were pioneers or something. For some it paid off and for others it did not.

I like it here and probably won't ever leave, but it's all I've ever known. There are other nice places waiting for their chance to shine.

Last edited by Ceece; 07-20-2014 at 11:42 PM..
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Old 07-21-2014, 12:09 AM
 
Location: Oakland, CA
1,148 posts, read 2,981,599 times
Reputation: 857
Quote:
Originally Posted by 04kL4nD View Post
I have mixed feelings. It's nice to see a lot of Oakland has cleaned up, but I'm not sure how much longer my partner and I can put up with renting. We love our neighborhood, but the asking price for a condo similar to our 2BR/2BA apartment in JLS is just insane right now. We tried to buy a house last year and threw our hands up after routinely getting outbid by 50-100k on our all-cash offers. It looks like things have cooled down a bit, but now is obviously a terrible time to buy. In reality, a lot depends on my career and work situation. I've been pretty comfortable for the past 3 years, but in the next few months I'm going to start weighing my options to see what will be best for my career. That might mean moving back to SoCal, out to Sac, and possibly out of state or even the country (it's a long shot, but maybe worth considering). The bottom line is that while I've loved living in the Bay Area for the last 8 or so years, the COL just keeps getting higher and higher. I'm not a college student or grad student anymore, so my threshold for the BS that comes with living here is starting to get lower and lower. It makes me sad to think that in 2-3 years I might not even be living here, but I'm not going to live in a cracker box in a crappy neighborhood just to stay in the Bay Area. I spent way too long in school and worked too hard to get where I am, and I'd like to eventually be able to own a home instead of just being subject to whatever rents dictate. One thing I will say is that I'm starting to like SF less and less. Not sure if it's techies or just the general vibe, but it just doesn't seem as fun an eclectic as it used to. I've noticed it trickle into Oakland over the last few years too. It's great that Oakland is suddenly seen as "cool" and "hip", but this really isn't news to people who've lived here for a while. A lot of us never even wanted to live in SF and aren't exactly happy with how expensive the city (Oakland) has gotten. Couple that in with absolutely terrible city leadership and it really leaves a bad taste in your mouth.
Thanks for sharing and we're alike in that we both don't know if we'll still be here in 2-3 years. SF, the Bay Area, and Oakland are on a path somewhere. I am already missing the special vibe the city had when it was overlooked.
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Old 07-21-2014, 12:22 AM
 
Location: Oakland, CA
1,148 posts, read 2,981,599 times
Reputation: 857
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ceece View Post
I think a lot of people will leave and that's not necessarily a bad thing. They will take their skills and talents elsewhere and this whole boom/bust cycle will start again, here or somewhere else, like it always does. I understand that things "don't seem the same" to but it's partly because when you get older you aren't the same either.

I've lived in the Bay Area my whole life and have seen prices soar and crash and soar again. The cycles seem to happen at a faster clip these days. I'm glad that the many sketchy places are turning into something more desirable. (I don't hold to the idea that we have to preserve anything outside of a museum) but it means their will be a ton of change and not everyone is going to benefit from it. When an area improves (and we ALL want that) prices go up. There isn't an alternative.

If I was young and starting out I'd probably be moving further out, or looking at the areas that have yet to be improved. Places that aren't quite there yet. I know lot's of people who had to do that in the 90's, it's like they were pioneers or something. For some it paid off and for others it did not.

I like it here and probably won't ever leave, but it's all I've ever known. There are other nice places waiting for their chance to shine.
Yeah, I am older now too and my priorities and preferences have changed. I think as humans we are all searching for that perfect place that can feed our mind, body, and soul. Places are found at the intersection of a location and a moment in time. I miss those days in my ignorant youth, for example, during the go go 90s, when both time and place lined up perfectly to create days that seemed like they'd last for ever, taken for granted, but vivid and meaningful. Well, I am just 32 but that is enough to remember how things used to be. San Francisco was a time and place for many people. The hippies in the Haight in the 60s. The ravers in the warehouses in the 90s. etc. I guess many of us had our chance there. We all love SF as a place, and want to create our time there. Now, it is the time for the techies. It is their time now.
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Old 07-21-2014, 09:54 AM
 
Location: SW King County, WA
6,400 posts, read 8,228,286 times
Reputation: 6565
I'll be turning 30 later this year, so part of it I think is just growing up and getting older. I've spent all of my 20s in California, and while it's been really good for me, I'm at the point now where I'm mostly done figuring out who I am and what I want to do. A lot of my close friends that I've made during my time here have either already moved away or they're in the same spot I'm in now- unsure whether it's worth it to stick it out here. Overall, I really don't think there's a place in the US that has all that the Bay Area has to offer, and I really don't want to leave, but things have changed so fast in the last 2 years that I really have no clue what's going to happen next.
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Old 07-21-2014, 11:43 AM
 
Location: Bay Area
3,981 posts, read 8,952,275 times
Reputation: 4723
Quote:
Originally Posted by mini_cute View Post
Hi folks,

I know by now the gentrification of SF and rising housing costs in the Bay Area have been discussed ad nauseam. But I want to ask more specifically if you all plan to stay in the area and for how long? Do you find the rapidly rising housing costs, not just shocking, but also unsettling? Does it make you feel unstable and feel like you don't know what to expect in the next few years?

Because that is what is happening to me. The rapid changes are contributing greatly to my feelings of uncertainty about the future. When we first moved to SF, we saw a spacious 2 bedroom for rent in the South Beach neighborhood for just $2,400 a month. What do you think about that? It probably goes for $4,000 now.

That was back in early 2010. Even though the economy was still in the pits, it still seemed like we could know what to expect in the next couple of years and plan around it.

Now, I feel uncertain. First, we are renting a place right now and even though we can pay now, we know when it comes time to renew it will go up. We would still be able to afford the rent if it went up somewhat, but I would not feel good about such a rapid increase. It just seems like money down the drain and starts to change the equation in my mind if I am getting good value or not. But then if it did go up, it is not like I'd have much of a choice because there aren't a lot of other places that are as good. I'd have to leave the neighborhood, city, or region altogether.

We want to buy a place but there is a lack of good inventory in Oakland. I don't want to live in SF again even though they are building stuff now. But in both places, the competition will be fierce to buy. So there is uncertainty that we'd be able to find a place we'd want to buy, and be able to buy it.

Then there is this uncertainty about if we are in a tech bubble or not. Everything went up so fast it doesn't seem stable or right. Like if we did buy a place, we'd be buying at the peak which would not be wise. Also, if we are in a tech bubble, when will it burst? Eventually the growth has to slow down or pull back. What will happen to the area if that were to happen? I don't think we'll see a tech bubble burst like the dot com one, but there will be a contraction at some point.

Then I've read there is all this international wealthy people buying property here. So there is uncertainty from that as well as global influences can really affect the home prices here. Having all these foreign people own property here and not even living here all the time, what sort of impacts will that have on the city?

So much things undetermined. I guess uncertainty is always a part of life, but because the changes have happened so fast, it is even more unsettling.

I have no idea what I will be doing and where in the next 2-3 years now. If the home prices were more stable and only slowly rising, and the changes happening now did not happen or only did so very slowly, I'd probably find a good place to buy and hunker down for a good haul.

I also don't like the changes in the ambiance of the city. That is why I left. The car congestion, level of noise, and strain on infrastructure and city was getting too annoying and stressful.

Please chime in if you have similar thoughts and/or feelings.
Everything you've written, mini-cute, could have been written by be--only ten to fifteen years earlier! It's strange because my husband and I paid 1600$ for a two bedroom apartment. It was out of our budget (despite the fact that he made good money for the time). I know, now 1600$ sounds like a steal nowadays, hehehe.

A couple of years into living in our 2 bedroom, we had saved just about enough for a house in the Sunset (it was 320k at the time!). Guess what happened during the time we started house shopping? Prices began running away from us--tripling--even quadrupling in a matter of a couple of years. We became frustrated got sick of it, didn't want to leave (all of our friends/family live there!), but didn't want to rent forever. That's when we moved to a much less expensive part of the state (Sacramento area) and bought a house there. By the time the real estate started affecting this region greatly, we were able to sell at the peak and move to another country all together. We basically ran away from the real estate bubble and cashed out, moved away to another country all together (political reasons-hehe), and here we are---back int he Bay Area with our own house finally (we bought during the crash).

It's definitely not something that can work for everyone and with several children in tow was excessively stressful, but we are finally where we want to be after all these years. No, it's not San Francisco, but as I've gotten older (older than you) I discovered that I don't want to be in the "heart" of things. I live visiting as often as I like and being able to come back to home to my wildlife refuge in my backyard...and a driveway! Feelings and opinions change as we grow older!

There's no right or wrong answer on how to do it--this way worked for us along with having a lot of luck and the tenacity to move when we felt that renting in another country would pay off eventually. I pined for San Francisco after we moved to Sacramento (biggest culture shock in my life)...but things manage work out in the end.

There's no right or wrong answer---only you can make these kinds of decisions for your own circumstances. Just letting you know that it's a cycle--even if the cycle seems to last over ten years!
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