Is San Francisco the only city to have completely priced out its middle/working class?

[Devon011]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

Someone on the Europe forum last year said a house of 1000 sq.. feet for a family of 5 was normal in Scandinavia, even considered comfortable, with an extra room for a small office.

Speaking of small places, this is my old place/room where my brother,sister and I stayed together in for 2 years

[smashystyle]

Originally Posted by ashpelham

I don't wish this on the nice people of San francisco/Bay area of California: but that market is just smelling like a bubble about to pop. I hope that it doesn't come from some natural disaster, but that has historically been one of the most effected areas by earthquakes.

that'll pop a real estate bubble in a hurry.

I know people always say that a quake would crash the housing market, but would it really? If some housing were red tagged, supply would be reduced, increasing prices. If landlords had to make repairs, they might pass along their costs to renters. So why would an earthquake hurt the housing market? It might even make things worse!

[DriveNotCommute]

Originally Posted by smashystyle

I know people always say that a quake would crash the housing market, but would it really? If some housing were red tagged, supply would be reduced, increasing prices. If landlords had to make repairs, they might pass along their costs to renters. So why would an earthquake hurt the housing market? It might even make things worse!

Because of the temporary fear effect as people are scared into leaving town while prospective buyers are temporarily scared away from buying.

Meanwhile if insurance companies do not pay out or declare bankruptcy, more people could end up leaving as they are unable to rebuild. That means land that is put up for sale or defaulted to banks who then put it up for sale. A large portion of the value of California RE is in the land anyway so the incentive to rebuild without insurance money could be weaker than we might expect.

After the fear passes and demand recovers though, I think you're right in that prices would rebound and possibly become higher until the housing supply recovers. There are probably RE investors who would seize the opportunity to pick up some land. In my opinion, they would likely try to install higher density housing anywhere that zoning allows for it.

[HockeyMac18]

Originally Posted by DriveNotCommute

Because of the temporary fear effect as people are scared into leaving town while prospective buyers are temporarily scared away from buying.

Meanwhile if insurance companies do not pay out or declare bankruptcy, more people could end up leaving as they are unable to rebuild. That means land that is put up for sale or defaulted to banks who then put it up for sale. A large portion of the value of California RE is in the land anyway so the incentive to rebuild without insurance money could be weaker than we might expect.

After the fear passes and demand recovers though, I think you're right in that prices would rebound and possibly become higher until the housing supply recovers. There are probably RE investors who would seize the opportunity to pick up some land. In my opinion, they would likely try to install higher density housing anywhere that zoning allows for it.

I guess it depends on how bad of a quake it is. Something with major structural and infrastructure damages throughout the area might do what you're saying...but if we get something more mild (closer to Loma Prieta vs. 1906-level destruction), I can see how it could potentially lead to things getting more expensive (at least in the short term).

To be honest...I see points in both directions and could see that going either way.

[DriveNotCommute]

Originally Posted by HockeyMac18

I guess it depends on how bad of a quake it is. Something with major structural and infrastructure damages throughout the area might do what you're saying...but if we get something more mild (closer to Loma Prieta vs. 1906-level destruction), I can see how it could potentially lead to things getting more expensive (at least in the short term).

To be honest...I see points in both directions and could see that going either way.

Oh you're right, I completely overlooked that point. Since the post that started this chain spoke of declining prices, I jumped to conclusions and spoke from the perspective of a Big One sized quake since that's what it would take. I assumed that ashpelham must have been thinking of something along these lines but see now that it could have referred to lesser-but-still-large quakes too.

The Big One is a very rare massive quake. For other, more likely-to-happen large quakes that do not inspire panic but still causes structural damage (like Napa's quake from last year) I agree with you and smashystyle.

[WizardOfRadical]

Originally Posted by dalparadise

Yep, I've been middle class all my life and have benefited from each of these (except Medicare).

Social Security when my dad died, unemployment insurance when I was laid off, Pell grants and low-interest loans when I was paying my way through college.

You were not paying your way through college. A financial institution and the federal government (ie taxpayers) were paying for you.

[BodegaHead]

http://fotoimagepics.info/wp-content...il_collins.jpg

[smashystyle]

Maybe the best comparison for what would happen after a big quake is New Orleans after Katrina (although I think that the likelihood of an earthquake with Katrina-level devastation is very unlikely -- it would probably require a tsunami). Katrina caused a lot of displacement and residents fleeing New Orleans. After Katrina, New Orleans lost more than half of its population but is back up to about 20% below pre-Katrina levels today. And housing prices look to be higher than ever there: Owen Courreges: Is New Orleans experiencing a real-estate bubble? » Uptown Messenger

[dalparadise]

Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical

You were not paying your way through college. A financial institution and the federal government (ie taxpayers) were paying for you.

I was nowhere near a full-ride in my grants--if memory serves, I received about $1500 in total--and I finished college with only a couple of thousand in loans to repay (which I did).

So, yes, I paid my way. I always had a full-time job throughout school.

You should try it.

[Devon011]

Originally Posted by Clampdown69

I read something that says more SF city workers and law enforcement officers (mostly middle class professions) live in the suburbs of Novato and Martinez than they do it in the city.

Speaking as a city worker I live in South Beach in a condo I recently bought. In my building it is more blue collar workers than white collar workers. Some are the workers are Police Officers and Fire Fighters.

How many of you are natives? How old are you?[/quote] I'm not a native. Under 34