What REALISTIC scenario could turn San Francisco into the next Detroit? (real estate, bankruptcy)

[Perma Bear]

Detroit was once one of the most expensive, prestigious cities in the country thanks to the prosperity of its crown jewel General Motors and the automotive industry. Now, due to ugly, cramped, Japanese cars, it lies in ruins. San Francisco has become what Detroit once was. Will China do the same to the SF Bay Area that Japan did to Detroit?

[Misty108]

How, exactly? Has China invented the new Google or a replacement for the iPhone? I'm a real human who knows little about tech so maybe I'm missing something.

Detroit doesn't have the climate and natural beauty of SF either.

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by Misty108

How, exactly? Has China invented the new Google or a replacement for the iPhone? I'm a real human who knows little about tech so maybe I'm missing something.

Detroit doesn't have the climate and natural beauty of SF either.

Detroit has a similar temperature range. It doesn't dip much below 15F even in the dead of winter and has beautiful views of the Great Lake. It's not hard for them to steal tech since their culture embraces stealing others ideas. They can run counterfeit businesses for a far lower cost.

[Tulemutt]

Somebody has never been to Detroit.
Somebody doesn't know anything about american history.
Somebody knows nothing about economics.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

Detroit was once one of the most expensive, prestigious cities in the country thanks to the prosperity of its crown jewel General Motors and the automotive industry. Now, due to ugly, cramped, Japanese cars, it lies in ruins. San Francisco has become what Detroit once was. Will China do the same to the SF Bay Area that Japan did to Detroit?

If the city pushes out all tech companies and increases taxes and fees to unbearable levels

[bigboibob]

I don't think it will be as pronounced as Detroit because the overvalued companies tend to be in private markets which are less transparent.

Continued poor performance of IPOs of private VC funded companies will lock out other IPOs from coming to market. VC funds decreased funding to private companies leading to increase in defaults of private companies. Real estate prices continues to increase at a higher rate than average household incomes. Fears of bankruptcy and increasing overhead spur relocation to lower cost of living areas to lower operating expenses.

More computer science majors come to market as most "tech" companies are keeping headcounts steady or decreasing headcounts. Stock compensation turn out to be less than expected amidst lackluster performance while private investors cash in preferred shares and convertible bonds.

[ccm123]

A complete implosion of the tech industry could do that. VC funding slows, engineers & managers (intellectual capital) leave the area, jobs start drying up, etc

Real estate prices would start dropping too. Many unrelated jobs and industries are indirectly connected and dependent on the tech industry for revenue, and demand for those goods & services would drop. A serious recession would take place.

Technology is embedded into many common products now (cars, as a example), so this scenario would be less probable, than say 20 years ago.

[clongirl]

San Francisco WILL never and HAS never been like Detroit. Period. You're either incredibly daft, or just plain ignorant about the history of the region. Tourism ALONE would prop up the economy fairly well.

[04kL4nD]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

Detroit has a similar temperature range. It doesn't dip much below 15F even in the dead of winter and has beautiful views of the Great Lake. It's not hard for them to steal tech since their culture embraces stealing others ideas. They can run counterfeit businesses for a far lower cost.

What is this "Great Lake" you speak of? One which prevents temps from dipping below 15 degrees and offers a similar clime as SF?

[bigboibob]

Originally Posted by clongirl

San Francisco WILL never and HAS never been like Detroit. Period. You're either incredibly daft, or just plain ignorant about the history of the region. Tourism ALONE would prop up the economy fairly well.

Someone's never heard of Greece, Spain, or Italy.

Relying on tourism alone would be pretty horrible. Not "fairly well".