531k jobs created, 94k housing units created: Bay Area, last 5 years (San Francisco: rental car, foreclosure)

[HockeyMac18]

Originally Posted by Tulemutt

Oh, I'd agree the culture is being altered / evolved continuously regardless. But a lot of the character lingers on. It's a semantical game, admittedly. But I'm going to guess you get my perspective on that part.

Not burying head in sand, in any case. More like holding hands over eyes and peeking through fingers, aghast.

You know, birthrates are not increasing around the world. And in advanced technological, educated countries, birthrates have fallen below replacement levels already. It's the mortality rate that creates the challenge. Understandably, everyone wants to live longer. And, while we are living the contradiction of grossly less healthy lifestyles, we are compensating for our indulgences and laziness with modern medical / pharmaceutical wonders - without incentivizing further reductions in the birthrates. Pick your path. You can't expand infinitely in a finite paradigm.

We are also using resources at an alarmingly unsustainable rate in our piggishness. Refusing to acknowledge both that and the essential psychological suicide of overcrowding human nature which is biologically designed and suited to living only as social animals in very small little clans.

Most (self-anointed) "progressive" thinking people either embrace limitless growth - or - parrot out the lines such as "it's going to happen anyway, you can't stop growth" as if that is a given, natural premise. And it really isn't. There are many forms of cancer. But cancer is always a disease of unrestricted growth running amok. And every social-based problem society faces, from physical health, to mental health, to crime, destruction / overuse of resources, pollution, international violence, hunger, and more - um, are ALL a form of cancer called: over population.

I ask you: Who's got their head in the sand?

I don't disagree with what you're saying. But people are coming here regardless, and I just don't see that stopping any time soon, even if that would be the best thing for the region and the planet overall... We either embrace them, or do what we're doing now and do very little to address that growth.

To be honest, neither solution is ideal, I agree with you. In a perfect world, SF and the Bay Area would stay pretty much the same, and population growth would be small enough that we could manage it with small development. But that's not the reality. And I see more issues with the "drive them out via high housing prices" solution you're going for here. Sounds like a recipe for revolution, if taken to its extreme ends.

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by HockeyMac18

I don't disagree with what you're saying. But people are coming here regardless, and I just don't see that stopping any time soon, even if that would be the best thing for the region and the planet overall... We either embrace them, or do what we're doing now and do very little to address that growth.

To be honest, neither solution is ideal, I agree with you. In a perfect world, SF and the Bay Area would stay pretty much the same, and population growth would be small enough that we could manage it with small development. But that's not the reality. And I see more issues with the "drive them out via high housing prices" solution you're going for here. Sounds like a recipe for revolution, if taken to its extreme ends.

If the revolution happens the weak wristed hipsters and techies would move out so we'll be cheap again. Sounds like a bargain. Besides, places like Menlo Park, Atherton, Palo Alto, Portolla Valley, RWC, Belmont, San Carlos, San Mateo, Hillsborough, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, and Woodside have strong police forces and would defend us.

[HockeyMac18]

Originally Posted by bodyforlife99

What does that even mean? Please elaborate.

Originally Posted by boulder2015

Dude, you already did a 20 page thread on this complaining about "how the culture of the bay is declining... but it has nothing to do with housing prices.' Dont play dumb with us.

Baring some major economic collapse of the region (which I don't see happening anytime soon), if we do what you and Tule are suggesting and just basically maintain the status quo regarding growth (or build nothing, even), then this will, logically, lead to ever-increasing housing prices in the region (supply stays the same, demand rises... Prices will rise - Basic economics).

High housing prices will drive out the majority of people that live here currently (happening over time, decades and generations).

In their wake, they're replaced by much wealthier people that can actually afford the housing costs and people poor enough to qualify for subsidies. That will have an effect on the culture (and it already is having an effect).

This isn't to say that wealthy or poor people aren't interesting, or that they aren't part of interesting cultures. But when you have a region where only a few subsets can afford to stay long term, your pool of potential people (and cultures) that can live here dwindles substantially. That will have an effect on the regional culture (and it already is having an effect). Especially in relation to the type of work people can seek in the region.

And I'm not even mentioning income inequality's effects on things, which I personally think will have an ever-increasing effect over time.

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by HockeyMac18

Baring some major economic collapse of the region (which I don't see happening anytime soon), if we do what you and Tule are suggesting and just basically maintain the status quo regarding growth (or build nothing, even), then this will, logically, lead to ever-increasing housing prices in the region (supply stays the same, demand rises... Prices will rise - Basic economics).

High housing prices will drive out the majority of people that live here currently (happening over time, decades and generations).

In their wake, they're replaced by much wealthier people that can actually afford the housing costs and people poor enough to qualify for subsidies. That will have an effect on the culture (and it already is having an effect).

This isn't to say that wealthy or poor people aren't interesting, or that they aren't part of interesting cultures. But when you have a region where only a few subsets can afford to stay long term, your pool of potential people (and cultures) that can live here dwindles substantially. That will have an effect on the regional culture (and it already is having an effect). Especially in relation to the type of work people can seek in the region.

And I'm not even mentioning income inequality's effects on things, which I personally think will have an ever-increasing effect over time.

Prop 13 people can live here forever and their families thanks to other more recent props.

[ssmaster]

Originally Posted by bodyforlife99

And we can agree to disagree on this one because I see absolutely no way you can even come close to meeting demand (which means prices stay the way they are). So yes, it's 94,000 too many.

And I suspect, that many families will just hang on to their homes and will them to their children. With that said the middle class could survive in that fashion. Not to mention, low income housing isn't going anywhere.

I agree building enough homes to sate demand is impossible.

This demand is manifesting in bidding wars for homes in the $2-3 million dollar range in desirable areas. Resulting in $300-400 thousand over asking winning offers.

20- 25% of units in sf are unoccupied because owners want a pied a terre or rental laws are so onerous that just holding onto the property and having it appreciate can be more desirable

Sf had to pass legislation to stop buyers from buying 2-3 unit buildings and converting them to a single family home.

That a lot of high end demand to be taken care before home prices can be made affordable.

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by ssmaster

I agree building enough homes to sate demand is impossible.

This demand is manifesting in bidding wars for homes in the $2-3 million dollar range in desirable areas. Resulting in $300-400 thousand over asking winning offers.

20- 25% of units in sf are unoccupied because owners want a pied a terre or rental laws are so onerous that just holding onto the property and having it appreciate can be more desirable

Sf had to pass legislation to stop buyers from buying 2-3 unit buildings and converting them to a single family home.

That a lot of high end demand to be taken care before home prices can be made affordable.

Reminds of tulipmania

[JohnS_15]

Too many people in The Bay Area, California, the world! I agree somewhat with Tule. I don't really like people en mass either. Eventually we have to stop expanding and growing right? Problem is our entire economy is built around continued growth and increased consumption. (More people buying more crap).

The overpopulation concern is not a new one. People were super concerned about it in the '60s and '70s. It was a theme in the environmental movement. I think it should get more attention than it gets. People start to get uncomfortable when the issue of population control gets brought up. Anyone read that Dan Brown book "Inferno"? An interesting overpopulation solution. He gets a lot of criticism for those types of theories that world population is too high and heading for a catastrophe.

[HockeyMac18]

I agree with you guys that the world would be better off with less people in it (even if it's a bit off topic). But good luck instituting anything to control that...that sure wouldn't fly in this country (or most of the world, for that matter).

The fact is people are coming here, whether we like it or not, and we can either:

1. Try to deal with it by accommodating at least some of them or
2. Don't do anything to accommodate them (i.e. maintain the status quo of the last few decades) and face the consequences of that policy (e.g. higher real estate costs further hollowing out the middle class, changing/homogenizing the regional culture even more, effects of sharp income inequality at a regional level, etc.)

Seems like some people want to pretend that there's some mythical third option: "don't let anyone else come here, nor let those here reproduce in great quantities" - yeah, good luck with that concept.

[HappyinCali]

Originally Posted by bodyforlife99

What does that even mean? Please elaborate.

Is this a serious question. There are literally 10s of threads on here about people complaining how the culture of the Bay Area is changing because long-time residents are driven away by high prices.

So, you don't like the solution to build more. A lot more. So your solution is to do nothing... Just don't complain when in 20 years, San Francisco looks like a gated community in Newport Beach.

[bodyforlife99]

Originally Posted by HockeyMac18

This isn't to say that wealthy or poor people aren't interesting, or that they aren't part of interesting cultures.

I'm glad you clarified that because for a second, I thought you were going to say exactly that.