Homeowners of SF bayarea: do you regret or not? (pay, affordable)

[Ultrarunner]

2015 may not be the peek but property tax revenues are rolling in and at least one county Assessor said the they are well into the black... between record prices being recorded and temporary market reductions going away...

California should flush with tax money... Income, Sales, Property plus all the others like Telephone, Gas, Use Tax, Excise... etc.

[TR95]

Originally Posted by TheGreatCurve

The bottom for the last cycle was 2008-2011. The bottom for the previous cycle was 1991-1994. Bottoms are usually multi-year events, not just a single year. But the bottom for the previous cycle started in 1991, as I stated above. We were well off the bottom by the fall of 1998, so it was nowhere near "close to the bottom". As I stated originally, one of the reasons I hesitated to buy that condo in the fall of 1998 was because prices had already run up so much over the past two years so I thought I may be buying at the peak.

Can you not read or comprehend graphs? Between 91-94/95, which was the end of 1994/beginning 1995, prices declined 11%. Seems like a simple concept to me. The bottom was 94/95. Then between 1996-1998 prices increased 29% out of the total 100% between 96-2001. So again, if you bought in 1998 you were close to the bottom of if you consider you would have gained another 70% and only lost out on the 29% appreciation. So, yes much closer to the bottom. Too bad your thoughts were incorrect at the time. Not sure why this is so hard for you to comprehend, but by the look of your other posts now I get it. You just don't get life.

[TR95]

Originally Posted by TheGreatCurve

As with the stock market, it's almost impossible to call the absolute bottom or peak until after the fact.

Was 2015 the peak for real estate for this cycle? We won't know for sure until a year or more later.

No one knows, just as back in 1998. But history repeats or rhymes, and based on history we've shot up 45% in three years compared to 41%, 29%, 38%, respectively, in the last three cycles and still had more appreciation after that so my guess is we are not. And based so far in 2016 with most areas up 10-15% since beginning of 2015, the peak didn't occur at the end of 2015. It's going to take a recession and large increase interest rates.

[TheGreatCurve]

Originally Posted by TR95

Can you not read or comprehend graphs? Between 91-94/95, which was the end of 1994/beginning 1995, prices declined 11%. Seems like a simple concept to me. The bottom was 94/95. Then between 1996-1998 prices increased 29% out of the total 100% between 96-2001. So again, if you bought in 1998 you were close to the bottom of if you consider you would have gained another 70% and only lost out on the 29% appreciation. So, yes much closer to the bottom. Too bad your thoughts were incorrect at the time. Not sure why this is so hard for you to comprehend, but by the look of your other posts now I get it. You just don't get life.

1995 was "close to the bottom". The end of 1998 was not. Period.

If you had a swimming pool that was 100 feet deep but you only fill it up to 30 feet, do you tell people not to worry that they can't possibly drown because they are "close to the bottom"?

[TR95]

Originally Posted by TheGreatCurve

1995 was "close to the bottom". The end of 1998 was not. Period.

If you had a swimming pool that was 100 feet deep but you only fill it up to 30 feet, do you tell people not to worry that they can't possibly drown because they are "close to the bottom"?

Take it however you want. Most people would consider a 70% increase afterwards "close to the bottom." Not you though and guess it's not surprising you still haven't bought a house with that flawed logic. Sorry you missed out on life changing appreciation. Keep up with the great arguments though. It seems to be working great for you

[TheGreatCurve]

Originally Posted by TR95

No one knows, just as back in 1998. But history repeats or rhymes, and based on history we've shot up 45% in three years compared to 41%, 29%, 38%, respectively, in the last three cycles and still had more appreciation after that so my guess is we are not. And based so far in 2016 with most areas up 10-15% since beginning of 2015, the peak didn't occur at the end of 2015. It's going to take a recession and large increase interest rates.

We are up way more than 45% since 2012. Your chart stops at 2014. In many cases, I've seen prices that well exceed the previous bubble peaks in 2007. This includes numerous properties that have more than doubled (>100% increases) from their last sold prices during the bottom (2008-2011). In fact, almost every house I looked at in 2011-2012 has now doubled in price.

I'm already seeing plenty of price cuts in many listings so I do feel we are now past the peak. Either that or sellers were just first listing their houses at ridiculous pipe-dream prices to test the waters before reducing them back down to more realistic prices.

[TheGreatCurve]

Originally Posted by TR95

Take it however you want. Most people would consider a 70% increase afterwards "close to the bottom." Not you though and guess it's not surprising you still haven't bought a house with that flawed logic. Sorry you missed out on life changing appreciation. Keep up with the great arguments though. It seems to be working great for you

Of course if I had known it would go up another 70%, I would have bought. But no one can predict the future. No one could have predicted that the stock market would go ga-ga over unprofitable 1-year old dot-com IPOs in 1999-early 2000. But when prices had already run up 30% in only 2 years, it's logical to think that maybe prices were peaking.

[TheGreatCurve]

Home Prices Begin To Cool In San Francisco

Home Prices Begin To Cool In San Francisco « CBS San Francisco

[lily4]

Originally Posted by JustCuriouss

lottery tickets do not plunge you into decades of debt and constant payments for maintenance. Just so we are clear (it appears i have to be explicit), i am referring to only those who bought their homes instead of merely inheriting. Either you have assumed that or you are not very skilled at drawing analogies.

Understand that many people bought their homes long before things went sky high and many have Prop 13, so their property taxes are low, as well. They didn't inherit their homes, but didn't pay all that much either and now their homes are either mortgage free, or well on their way to being so.

Are you only interested in feedback from people who have purchased homes more recently and would more than likely have a large mortgage payment? All homes have maintenance, but it doesn't compare to the insanely high rents in that area.

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by TheGreatCurve

Home Prices Begin To Cool In San Francisco

Home Prices Begin To Cool In San Francisco « CBS San Francisco

Instead of paying 2 mil you pay 1.95 mil whoopie!