What are your thoughts on the Bay Area YIMBY movement? (San Francisco: 2015, apartment complex)

[HockeyMac18]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking

Ah, HockeyMac (one of the more reasonable posters on this board),

We've had this conversation before and were both sadly in agreement that eventually the area will predominately be inherited only by the most affluent people. We're actually not talking about two different things. She simply refuses to clarify her statement to those who can't afford to live here in the first place, but chose to do so and endure the hardship because they love the area (or the like thinking people) that they can't bear to live some where else (which is entirely their choice). The affluent will continue to live comfortably here. Technology will reduce and eliminate many of the lower paying jobs, so there will be less need for lower wage workers. One worker will be able to do the work of six by having self service checkstands. Tolls on bridges will be automated. McDonald's will have people order at kiosks. Less shopping will be done at sites as people will rely on companies like Amazon to take care of most of their basic needs and deliver it to their doorsteps via drones. And for those few manual jobs that need to be performed, the affluent people will pay what the market demands and or offer some subsidized housing to go with the luxury condos (SF is already doing this). This city is not for the weak, the timid, or the whiners. And the smart Middle Class people will allow the affluent to rent out homes they were fortunate enough to buy years ago, and live a very comfortable life somewhere else. The times, they are a changin'.

OK - yes, I don't really disagree with the above.

Although, at a larger, societal/national level, what do the people that used to have those jobs do for a living? That is a really hard-to-relate to world - but it does seem to heading our way, and at quite a fast pace.

[Independentthinking]

Originally Posted by HockeyMac18

OK - yes, I don't really disagree with the above.

Although, at a larger, societal/national level, what do the people that used to have those jobs do for a living? That is a really hard-to-relate to world - but it does seem to heading our way, and at quite a fast pace.

Learn new skills or be left behind. It's happened to quite a few industries. I've recreated myself 3x in my lifetime.

[HockeyMac18]

Originally Posted by Independentthinking

Learn new skills or be left behind. It's happened to quite a few industries. I've recreated myself 3x in my lifetime.

True - I'm thinking more longterm (a generation, or more, from now).

As someone that works with AI/machine learning on a daily basis, I'm aware how fast advancements in those algorithms are occurring - and I'm aware how many of the things I do can, and will, be automated in due time. If a white-collar job like mine can be replaced (at least to an extent)...well then, there's gonna be some major shifts in our society (these discussions, obviously, are outside of the scope of Bay Area real estate development...).

[likealady]

Originally Posted by jade408

Looks like you had a few advantages - a husband who made enough to mostly support your household. I assume you also didn't have $700-1200 / month of student loan debt (I know people with that much and more). Saving $100k+ isn't easy if you are single, have debts and don't make tons.

Mmm maybe, but I have friends making upper 5-figs/low 6-figs living in cheap rent controlled units. The people really getting slammed with COL issues are newcomers. This whole idea that everyone should be able to buy a home in this Bay Area is just laughable. It's a privilege to live here, and not everyone can which is why it's so damn expensive. What about Miami or NYC? People who can't afford NY can and do live in CT, NJ, long island etc- with roommates or family. Sidenote: there are crazy people (I've seen them on NextDoor) who would rather be homeless here than move to a place of cheaper COL. And then those same people turn around and complain about how life is so hard and expensive here.

What you should be complaining about is why the Bay Area hasn't been building better transit options to make living out in Dublin or Antioch better.

[HockeyMac18]

Originally Posted by likealady

Mmm maybe, but I have friends making upper 5-figs/low 6-figs living in cheap rent controlled units. The people really getting slammed with COL issues are newcomers. This whole idea that everyone should be able to buy a home in this Bay Area is just laughable. It's a privilege to live here, and not everyone can which is why it's so damn expensive. What about Miami or NYC? People who can't afford NY can and do live in CT, NJ, long island etc- with roommates or family. Sidenote: there are crazy people (I've seen them on NextDoor) who would rather be homeless here than move to a place of cheaper COL. And then those same people turn around and complain about how life is so hard and expensive here.

What you should be complaining about is why the Bay Area hasn't been building better transit options to make living out in Dublin or Antioch better.

The biggest issue for the Bay Area really isn't that SF or the peninsula is expensive (although, yes, those are big issues).

Really - the biggest issue is the sphere of affordability (or unaffordability). In NYC, you don't have to travel that far to find "reasonable" housing/rent. In the SF Bay Area, you have to travel insanely far distances to get to that (think far outer East Bay, or beyond). And it's getting more and more expensive in those areas.

In this regard, I view the Bay Area as probably the most unaffordable region. Manhattan might be more expensive than SF-proper. But we don't have a Broklyn, Queens, Bronx, or NJ here in the Bay Area where people can retreat to for better living.

You don't even have to leave the NY city limits to find reasonable housing...go out 20 miles from SF - way, way more expensive comparatively: https://www.redfin.com/city/30749/NY...max-price=200k (can you imagine finding anything here in the Bay Area when setting "max price" to 200k? LOL...).

Part of that is geographic (we have a damn huge bay in the middle, and mountains/steep hills that are hard to build on), but a lot of it is political. We could mitigate some of this if we were willing to allow some of the built environment to change in result to the intense demand. Certainly, I'm not imagining we would be a cheap place to live - but we could do a lot better. If we wanted to.

We have continually rejected this. And you rightly point out, mostly at the expense of newcomers.

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like many people against new housing are thinking of their children, who likely will not be able to afford to stay in the area. Or maybe they are, and just don't care.

[04kL4nD]

I think some of you are probably overestimating how many people are sitting around in their rent controlled apartments "living it up", while the rest of the area struggles with outrageous hikes year after year. Yeah, there are definitely some lucky folks that have got it good and won't EVER leave their rent controlled apartments since they got here a long time ago, but there are also tons of people who've been displaced because their long-term landlord decided to sell, retrofit, or come up with a myriad of other ways to boot them and then they're suddenly at the mercy of the "free market"

As HockeyMac just pointed out, there are a variety of things the Bay Area could collectively decide to do to make housing affordable, but none of them will please everyone. People in SF refuse to allow anything to be built other than luxury condos, and the same thing is going on in Oakland.

Some of the suburban areas like Dublin and Livermore are building housing, but unless you work nearby, that doesn't solve the long commutes to SF where lots of high paying jobs are.

As far as the newcomers getting "screwed", I'm sure many of them are. But if you take a job in the Bay Area and don't do your research on the COL, traffic patterns, and understand rent increases, and fully understand what those seemingly 'high' salaries will get you, it's on you- not those who came here first.

I think instead of trying to pit the "old timers living it up on rent control" vs the "newbies with tech money that are pricing everyone out" stereotypes against each other, we all need to take a long hard look at how to come up with a better alternative. This current model sucks for a lot more people than it needs to.

[HockeyMac18]

Originally Posted by 04kL4nD

I think instead of trying to pit the "old timers living it up on rent control" vs the "newbies with tech money that are pricing everyone out" stereotypes against each other, we all need to take a long hard look at how to come up with a better alternative. This current model sucks for a lot more people than it needs to.

Agreed.

[jade408]

Right now the choices are live like a college student with lots of roommates (even if you are a well paid tech worker) until you are 50/win the lottery/get a windfall equivalent to 2x median income or have a 5 hour round trip commute.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by jade408

Right now the choices are live like a college student with lots of roommates (even if you are a well paid tech worker) until you are 50/win the lottery/get a windfall equivalent to 2x median income or have a 5 hour round trip commute.

Or buy a 1 or 2 bedroom condo in a place like Central Contra Costa County for less than $400K.... and still be a reasonable commute to SF. And before you mention Silicon Valley this is the SF-Oak forum and most people don't work down there.

[Independentthinking]

Originally Posted by likealady

Mmm maybe, but I have friends making upper 5-figs/low 6-figs living in cheap rent controlled units. The people really getting slammed with COL issues are newcomers. This whole idea that everyone should be able to buy a home in this Bay Area is just laughable. It's a privilege to live here, and not everyone can which is why it's so damn expensive. What about Miami or NYC? People who can't afford NY can and do live in CT, NJ, long island etc- with roommates or family. Sidenote: there are crazy people (I've seen them on NextDoor) who would rather be homeless here than move to a place of cheaper COL. And then those same people turn around and complain about how life is so hard and expensive here.

What you should be complaining about is why the Bay Area hasn't been building better transit options to make living out in Dublin or Antioch better.

Yep, but what's even more interesting is the whining of how much more expensive it is now than some 20+ years ago. Our house in today's terms has merely doubled in value since 1994. People always fail to see the true picture always thinking they're living in such tough times. We bought our home for $280K at an interest rate of 8%. We have had historically low interest rates for quite a few years now and a 3% rate was very doable. That would have meant our mortgage was representative of a house that went for $480K. It would now sell for about $950K, so double the price. Our family income has tripled. I hardly think anyone today has things that much harder (at least not by what myself and many of my friends have experienced). Buying a home has never been easy in the Bay Area, nor do I feel it should be or that everyone should be entitled to one without a tremendous amount of sacrifice. But I think there are way too many in this area that think things should be handed to them.