Oakland plunges from 2nd to 10th on Ranking of Most Dangerous Cities (Jackson: crimes, how much)

[SocSciProf]

Originally Posted by majoun

Did you read the Unz article?

"But the reporting rate for homicides is widely accepted as close to 100 percent, and the close correspondence between the results for this “gold standard” crime category and those for the robbery and violent crime rates tends to confirm the validity of the latter....

"...El Paso and Atlanta are comparable in size and have similar poverty rates, but the latter has eight times the robbery rate and over ten times the homicide rate. Within California, Oakland approximately matches Santa Ana in size and poverty, but has several times the rate of crime. "

Yes, I read the article. I also know that:

1)Rape is vastly under-reported and does not match the pattern of homicide.

2)Petty crimes are under-reported.

3)What people call a petty crime depends on how much they have, how much they think the police will respond, and how vulnerable they are if the police respond.

4)People that are already breaking the law (undocumented residents, prostitutes, organized crime members are three examples) are extremely unlikely to report crime.

So, all the Unz article can say is that there is a correlation in the pattern of reported homicides and reported robberies. What that means is that if reported homicides go down, so do robberies, and if homicides go up, robberies go up. What the Unz article cannot say is "How much?" robbery went up or down, because reported robberies and total robberies track but are not the same.

SO, in any ranking of cities, if city A has 50 murders, and 150 reported robberies, down from 60 murders and 175 reported robberies, if city A has a lot of immigrants then total robberies might be 250, down from 350 (or it could be 200, down frm 220--we just cannot know with current data). Comparing the 150 reported robberies to a city (say, city B) with no immigration that has 190 reported robberies and 200 total robberies puts the city with high immigration ahead. But if we knew the actual number of robberies in city A was really 250, or if city A had a higher reporting rate, city A would be known to have more crime than city B.

So, I stand by what I wrote. Reported crime is not total crime. And high immigrant communities, especially those with undocumented persons in their number, are less likely to report crime. And that makes the claim that immigrants commit less crime pretty specious (especially as some percentage of them are committing a crime just by being here).

[majoun]

Originally Posted by SocSciProf

Yes, I read the article. I also know that:

1)Rape is vastly under-reported and does not match the pattern of homicide.

2)Petty crimes are under-reported.

3)What people call a petty crime depends on how much they have, how much they think the police will respond, and how vulnerable they are if the police respond.

4)People that are already breaking the law (undocumented residents, prostitutes, organized crime members are three examples) are extremely unlikely to report crime.

So, all the Unz article can say is that there is a correlation in the pattern of reported homicides and reported robberies. What that means is that if reported homicides go down, so do robberies, and if homicides go up, robberies go up. What the Unz article cannot say is "How much?" robbery went up or down, because reported robberies and total robberies track but are not the same.

SO, in any ranking of cities, if city A has 50 murders, and 150 reported robberies, down from 60 murders and 175 reported robberies, if city A has a lot of immigrants then total robberies might be 250, down from 350 (or it could be 200, down frm 220--we just cannot know with current data). Comparing the 150 reported robberies to a city (say, city B) with no immigration that has 190 reported robberies and 200 total robberies puts the city with high immigration ahead. But if we knew the actual number of robberies in city A was really 250, or if city A had a higher reporting rate, city A would be known to have more crime than city B.

So, I stand by what I wrote. Reported crime is not total crime. And high immigrant communities, especially those with undocumented persons in their number, are less likely to report crime. And that makes the claim that immigrants commit less crime pretty specious (especially as some percentage of them are committing a crime just by being here).

Completely ignoring homicide levels? Homicide statistics are the best guide to overall crime levels because homicide is the hardest crime to conceal. And as Unz said reported homicides are about 100 percent of homicides.

Do you really think Santa Ana, which has similar population and poverty levels to Oakland, has similar crime levels?

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by SocSciProf

Yes, I read the article. I also know that: 1)Rape is vastly under-reported and does not match the pattern of homicide.

Rape is always under-reported and has no relationship to the homicide rate.

Originally Posted by SocSciProf

Petty crimes are under-reported.

Under-reported? NO...they are not reported to the FBI, only part 1 crimes (felonies) are reported and it's always been that way. If you want stats on misdemeanors check your State's Dept. of Justice website

Originally Posted by SocSciProf

What people call a petty crime depends on how much they have, how much they think the police will respond, and how vulnerable they are if the police respond... People that are already breaking the law (undocumented residents, prostitutes, organized crime members are three examples) are extremely unlikely to report crime.

There is unreported crime all over the US and always has been, what exactly is your point? Are you claiming that the non-reporting of crime should be factored into crime stats or what? It's not only prostitutes and illegals who don't report crime, so let's stick to facts rather than engaging in speculation that supports your hypothesis. When I worked in LE the largest numbers of unreported crimes were those where the victim and suspect were related or known to each other. Most notably were large number of sexual assaults, domestic violence and theft cases that were only known to the Police when a third party reported it.

Originally Posted by SocSciProf

So, all the Unz article can say is that there is a correlation in the pattern of reported homicides and reported robberies. What that means is that if reported homicides go down, so do robberies, and if homicides go up, robberies go up. What the Unz article cannot say is "How much?" robbery went up or down, because reported robberies and total robberies track but are not the same.

Ron Unz is not a criminologist or statistician he is a right wing hack libertarian who has spent most of his time since losing his bid for California Governor in 1994 desperately trying to 'prove' how dangerous hispanic people are. There is more of a correlation between the time of year (season) and the homicide rate than there is between homicide and robbery.

Originally Posted by SocSciProf

So, I stand by what I wrote. Reported crime is not total crime. And high immigrant communities, especially those with undocumented persons in their number, are less likely to report crime. And that makes the claim that immigrants commit less crime pretty specious (especially as some percentage of them are committing a crime just by being here).

So, would it be fair to say that you 'think' the crime rate reported for Oakland is far higher than reported but try as you might, you just can't offer anything of substance that supports that?

[LuvSouthOC]

Originally Posted by majoun

Completely ignoring homicide levels? Homicide statistics are the best guide to overall crime levels because homicide is the hardest crime to conceal. And as Unz said reported homicides are about 100 percent of homicides.

Do you really think Santa Ana, which has similar population and poverty levels to Oakland, has similar crime levels?

Or El Paso...

[LuvSouthOC]

Originally Posted by SocSciProf

Yes, I read the article. I also know that:

1)Rape is vastly under-reported and does not match the pattern of homicide.

2)Petty crimes are under-reported.

3)What people call a petty crime depends on how much they have, how much they think the police will respond, and how vulnerable they are if the police respond.

4)People that are already breaking the law (undocumented residents, prostitutes, organized crime members are three examples) are extremely unlikely to report crime.

So, all the Unz article can say is that there is a correlation in the pattern of reported homicides and reported robberies. What that means is that if reported homicides go down, so do robberies, and if homicides go up, robberies go up. What the Unz article cannot say is "How much?" robbery went up or down, because reported robberies and total robberies track but are not the same.

SO, in any ranking of cities, if city A has 50 murders, and 150 reported robberies, down from 60 murders and 175 reported robberies, if city A has a lot of immigrants then total robberies might be 250, down from 350 (or it could be 200, down frm 220--we just cannot know with current data). Comparing the 150 reported robberies to a city (say, city B) with no immigration that has 190 reported robberies and 200 total robberies puts the city with high immigration ahead. But if we knew the actual number of robberies in city A was really 250, or if city A had a higher reporting rate, city A would be known to have more crime than city B.

So, I stand by what I wrote. Reported crime is not total crime. And high immigrant communities, especially those with undocumented persons in their number, are less likely to report crime. And that makes the claim that immigrants commit less crime pretty specious (especially as some percentage of them are committing a crime just by being here).

Unreported crime is not just an issue with immigrants. It is rampant in the black community.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by LuvSouthOC

Unreported crime is not just an issue with immigrants. It is rampant in the black community.

exactly

[majoun]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

Ron Unz is not a criminologist or statistician he is a right wing hack libertarian who has spent most of his time since losing his bid for California Governor in 1994 desperately trying to 'prove' how dangerous hispanic people are.

You realize that's exactly the opposite message of that article? That was not his intent at all (nor is it in other pieces he has written).

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by majoun

You realize that's exactly the opposite message of that article? That was not his intent at all (nor is it in other pieces he has written).

Yeah, I'm sorry now he seems to be blaming all crime on blacks..he must have gotten tired of blaming hispanics

[LuvSouthOC]

Originally Posted by 2sleepy

Yeah, I'm sorry now he seems to be blaming all crime on blacks..he must have gotten tired of blaming hispanics

Compared to all other groups, blacks commit astronomically high levels of very serious crime. I am sorry if this hurts your feelings.

I suppose we should pretend it isn't so.

[2sleepy]

Originally Posted by LuvSouthOC

Compared to all other groups, blacks commit astronomically high levels of very serious crime. I am sorry if this hurts your feelings.
I suppose we should pretend it isn't so.

I don't let my feelings become part of any discussion on these forums, so don't worry about that. Is the crime rate for blacks higher when you consider their percent of the overall population, yes, "Astronomically high", no. But it's complex and I know how poorly nuanced answers are received on this forum but I will try anyway:

Crime is related more to poverty than it is to race:

• Persons in poor households at or below the Federal Poverty Level (FPL) (39.8 per 1,000) had more than double the rate of violent victimization as persons in high-income households (16.9 per 1,000).
• Persons in poor households had a higher rate of violence involving a firearm (3.5 per 1,000) compared to persons above the FPL (0.8–2.5 per 1,000).
• The overall pattern of poor persons having the highest rates of violent victimization was consistent for both whites and blacks. However, the rate of violent victimization for Hispanics did not vary across poverty levels.
• Poor Hispanics (25.3 per 1,000) had lower rates of violence compared to poor whites (46.4 per 1,000) and poor blacks (43.4 per 1,000).
• Poor persons living in urban areas (43.9 per 1,000) had violent victimization rates similar to poor persons living in rural areas (38.8 per 1,000).
• Poor urban blacks (51.3 per 1,000) had rates of violence similar to poor urban whites (56.4 per 1,000).

https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?
ty=pbdetail&iid=5137

When poverty is reduced, the violent crime rate drops

The results indicated that reductions in poverty were associated with reductions in violent crime rates in both predominately white and predominately black neighborhoods. Consistent with the racial invariance hypothesis suggested by the social disorganization and anomie perspectives, the effect of changes in poverty on changes in violent crime was statistically indistinguishable for the two racial groups. The results from our longitudinal analysis were also consistent with those of existing cross-sectional neighborhood level studies in this area.
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc...=rep1&type=pdf

Crime follows Poverty

The Poverty-Crime Connection | Jackson Free Press | Jackson, MS

Also, I have lived in middle class neighborhoods with black neighbors my entire life, I've attended school with blacks and I've worked with blacks and I have a number of friends who are black. And to the best of my knowledge none of my black friends or acquaintances have ever been arrested for any crime, let alone a serious one.