The Bay Area is about to lock down again (versus, store)

[DeanoSF]

Today's cell phone alarm was loud and startling. It was the same kind we got every night in SF for curfew, during the BLM protests.

The message says the state-ordered stay-at-home measures "build upon previous local orders," but offers no further explanation of what that means. Does it mean those local parameters, such as the timeline to remove the order are no longer in effect? Are there any conflicts in the specifics of the state order and local ones? Will any part of this order be enforced? If so, how?

Although I understand the main idea of this order and will, as I have for nearly 9 months now, apply stricter standards of lockdown to my home and self, I believe the vague nature of this kind of state and local policy making is what is now causing some people to take these orders less seriously.

That's unfortunate for us all. The alarm linked to covid19.ca.gov. It lists our current statewide ICU availability at a shocking 2.1%.

[roadwarrior101]

Originally Posted by DeanoSF

Today's cell phone alarm was loud and startling. It was the same kind we got every night in SF for curfew, during the BLM protests.

The message says the state-ordered stay-at-home measures "build upon previous local orders," but offers no further explanation of what that means. Does it mean those local parameters, such as the timeline to remove the order are no longer in effect? Are there any conflicts in the specifics of the state order and local ones? Will any part of this order be enforced? If so, how?

Although I understand the main idea of this order and will, as I have for nearly 9 months now, apply stricter standards of lockdown to my home and self, I believe the vague nature of this kind of state and local policy making is what is now causing some people to take these orders less seriously.

That's unfortunate for us all. The alarm linked to covid19.ca.gov. It lists our current statewide ICU availability at a shocking 2.1%.

I heard on the news this morning it goes through January 7th (3 weeks), but could be extended if the situation stays as bad or worse as it is today.

[sav858]

If they extend the lockdown, kind of hard to argue they work. LA County has been locked down since the end of November and their cases still haven’t come down.

Not sure how anyone expected closing businesses that probably are responsible for less than 3% of COVID spread would make much of a difference.

[DeanoSF]

Originally Posted by sav858

If they extend the lockdown, kind of hard to argue they work. LA County has been locked down since the end of November and their cases still haven’t come down.

Not sure how anyone expected closing businesses that probably are responsible for less than 3% of COVID spread would make much of a difference.

That's a sensible conclusion, but I don't agree with you. As we've learned, lockdowns have proven much more effective if imposed ahead of a surge--to flatten and extend the timeframe of the rush of patients into the ICU, making the surge more manageable. we're at 2.1% now, statewide. Probably too late to flatten this curve substantially enough to lift the order in 3 weeks.

This lockdown is surely about buying us some time and breathing room until vaccinations can do their thing. Extending it is probably inevitable, as it's too early in the vaccine distribution for that to catch up.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by DeanoSF

That's a sensible conclusion, but I don't agree with you. As we've learned, lockdowns have proven much more effective if imposed ahead of a surge--to flatten and extend the timeframe of the rush of patients into the ICU, making the surge more manageable. we're at 2.1% now, statewide. Probably too late to flatten this curve substantially enough to lift the order in 3 weeks.

This lockdown is surely about buying us some time and breathing room until vaccinations can do their thing. Extending it is probably inevitable, as it's too early in the vaccine distribution for that to catch up.

How is it buying us time if it’s not reducing infections significantly? The businesses they shut down are such small factors in spread.

[DeanoSF]

Originally Posted by sav858

How is it buying us time if it’s not reducing infections significantly? The businesses they shut down are such small factors in spread.

Not sure I, or anyone has the answer. The point of the lockdown as I understand it is to get people to stay at home and not interact as much as possible in all facets of daily life. If we could do what Wuhan did, we probably should, but that’s not practical in our society. What we have is a compromise—the closest we can get to a total lockdown in our free society.

I contend that this lockdown, while perhaps coming too late to greatly reduce spread is hoped to at least contain it for enough time to get some bandwidth back in our ICU system.

It feels like emergency time in California.

[ThinkingOutsideTheBox]

Originally Posted by DeanoSF

Not sure I, or anyone has the answer. The point of the lockdown as I understand it is to get people to stay at home and not interact as much as possible in all facets of daily life. If we could do what Wuhan did, we probably should, but that’s not practical in our society. What we have is a clompromise—the closed we can get to a total lockdown in our free society.

I contend that this lockdown, while perhaps coming too late to greatly reduce spread is hoped to at least contain it for enough time to get some bandwidth back in our ICU system.

The only type of lockdown that really contains the virus is the Wuhan style hard 3 month "lock everyone in their homes" and NO free passes for leftist causes like BLM protests. Other than that it has to be herd immunity by vaccine or letting people who are low risk getting exposed. Half ass lockdowns like what we've been doing don't stop Covid: they just kill the economy and delay the inevitable. Shelter people at risk and allow businesses to operate with safety measures. California is now the epicenter of Covid and has much higher daily infection rates per capita than states that have been open all along.

[TashaPosh]

Originally Posted by DeanoSF

I contend that this lockdown, while perhaps coming too late to greatly reduce spread is hoped to at least contain it for enough time to get some bandwidth back in our ICU system.

It's not a lockdown....like a prison. Did you get the alert? It's a regional stay at home order. Not everything is "locked down" ofc.

[sav858]

Originally Posted by DeanoSF

Not sure I, or anyone has the answer. The point of the lockdown as I understand it is to get people to stay at home and not interact as much as possible in all facets of daily life. If we could do what Wuhan did, we probably should, but that’s not practical in our society. What we have is a compromise—the closest we can get to a total lockdown in our free society.

I contend that this lockdown, while perhaps coming too late to greatly reduce spread is hoped to at least contain it for enough time to get some bandwidth back in our ICU system.

It feels like emergency time in California.

But do you see how little sense it makes? Vast majority of infections are from private gatherings so how is closing businesses going to reduce private gatherings? I get that they need to try something but what they’re doing doesn’t logically make any sense while taking away people’s livelihoods.

Sometimes CA does too much and actually makes the situation worse and that kind of feels like what they are doing here. They’re shutting down businesses that aren’t even a significant factor in COVID spread. You’re right, I don’t think we do actually have an answer to significantly reduce spread at this point. All we’re doing is arbitrarily punishing people trying to make a living.

[ThinkingOutsideTheBox]

Originally Posted by TashaPosh

It's not a lockdown....like a prison. Did you get the alert? It's a regional stay at home order. Not everything is "locked down" ofc.

Yep: if another round of BLM protests break out, everyone is free, and even welcome to join the crowds. But if you want to open up your barbershop or spaced outdoor seating at the restaurant, you will be fined and possibly shut down. And outdoor gatherings are forbidden so people are back to gathering at people's homes where they can meet privately and spread the virus more. Very few people are taking the "no gathering" orders as seriously as most did in Spring. It's a shame because California winter weather is more amicable to outdoor dining and gathering than most of the U.S.