Bay Area exodus: Residents still want out, new poll finds. Here’s who is most anxious to leave (San Francisco: public school, property tax)
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Your figures include foreign imigrants, so do not accurately depict what SF residents are doing.
The best way is to look at domestic migration only, then find ot why they are leaving, or arriving.
I miss what San Fran once was, & that comes from my heart....believe what you want...I can't change that.
I've already said the word "exodus" doesn't describe the steady domestic immigration outflows....take a deep breath....relax.
I'm very relaxed. Poking holes in flawed arguments actually does that for me, despite your continual efforts to try and recharacterize the conversation and imply a doom and gloom scenario.
2nd verse same as the first. Run for the hills... it's an exodus....people are leaving in droves. You guys never give up
Last edited by blameyourself; 11-21-2022 at 06:43 AM..
you havent poked holes in the people are leaving argument at all. the data is there for everyone to see. It's disingenuous to post just the overall metro pop and say "see look some growth". just be honest about it. seems like many of the things people were saying anecdotally about neighbors/coworkers leaving, etc., is turning out to be true based on the hard numbers coming out. there were many denying it was happening, and even with census data now to back it up, are still denying.
Again, have folks here never heard of labor and delivery units? That used to be the only way California grew because the international immigration was cancelled out by the domestic out migration. Now with the sharp birth decline in CA (along with rising deaths), the state is now losing people overall. You would think people would be happy about this with the way they talk about traffic and too many people everywhere.
Quote:
Originally Posted by beach43ofus
Your figures include foreign imigrants, so do not accurately depict what SF residents are doing.
The best way is to look at domestic migration only, then find ot why they are leaving, or arriving.
I miss what San Fran once was, & that comes from my heart....believe what you want...I can't change that.
I've already said the word "exodus" doesn't describe the steady domestic immigration outflows....take a deep breath....relax.
The definition of exodus is just a mass departure of people. There is no number on it. So 100,000k+ people leaving from one metro area in one year can be seen as an exodus. It's a strong word that has folks in their feelings but it is what it is. A steady stream of people leaving is just another way of saying exodus.
Yawn. Your quote talks about the last 5 years so clearly it's hogwash. Yeah it does matter who's buying homes because lower and middle income earners aren't buying million+ dollar homes.
Same question posed to you since you're dancing now. How is it that the population of CA is still at 39 million and according to you, there have been no change in the amount of rich people but lower and middle income people have left? Maybe you should email Hans?
Blogs, op eds, and pretty little charts that make no sense (but people believe them anyway).
Why does it matter who's buying these homes? It doesn't change the data. Are you trying to use this weak angle to dismiss the data or something?
I literally just answered that question in the last paragraph of my previous post; international immigration. Do you not make it to the end of posts and articles? Probably births over deaths as well.
I never posted a blog or op-ed. The chart makes sense if you understand it, seeing as you seem to forget about international immigration and natural increase perhaps that's why you're having such a tough time with it?
but of course, that doesn't tell the whole story. breaking the numbers down some more since 2010 by first looking at migration:
international immigration: 277,680
domestic migration: -178,276 change: +49,404
and all of that positive domestic migration came during the ground floor of the most recent tech boom between 2011-2015.
next let's look at natural increase (births minus deaths):
births: 534,644
deaths: 319,177 change: +215,467
as we can see, clearly natural increase is why the Bay Area is growing. International immigration assists barely but has dropped like a rock (and the Bay's share of the international immigration is less now than it was in 2010...so despite the overall nationwide drop in immigration) and domestic migration is negative still.
hopefully this false notion of so many people moving to California dies down because that isn't the case at all and hasn't been since the 80s. what is happening is native Californians are growing up. right now we're seeing the Zoomers (Gen Z) become adults and they need places to live.
but of course, that doesn't tell the whole story. breaking the numbers down some more since 2010 by first looking at migration:
international immigration: 277,680
domestic migration: -178,276 change: +49,404
and all of that positive domestic migration came during the ground floor of the most recent tech boom between 2011-2015.
next let's look at natural increase (births minus deaths):
births: 534,644
deaths: 319,177 change: +215,467
as we can see, clearly natural increase is why the Bay Area is growing. International immigration assists barely but has dropped like a rock (and the Bay's share of the international immigration is less now than it was in 2010...so despite the overall nationwide drop in immigration) and domestic migration is negative still.
hopefully this false notion of so many people moving to California dies down because that isn't the case at all and hasn't been since the 80s. what is happening is native Californians are growing up. right now we're seeing the Zoomers (Gen Z) become adults and they need places to live.
For what its worth during the pandemic most of our office staff ranging from software engineers to accountants, HR etc went remote. A lot of them immediately left the area and moved to other parts of the state (usually less locked down parts with open public schools) or left the state outright.
Some had to return and are back though many just relocated permanently and quit. Others were given exemptions.
I had to work the entire time as an essential worker. I wanted to leave but family ties, a high salary, owning a house etc kept me here.
I'm not sure the Bay is going to have more drops in overall population like during the pandemic for a while. But I expect population growth to slow to a crawl far below other states and regions of the state. It's basically untenable to live here if you don't make 100k+ as a single person and 200k+ as a family. And even if you pass the first income test school quality, traffic, crowdedness is still a problem for most. Though admittedly there's excellent weather and top employers to lure people in--though primarily younger people come and leave when they start families.
I see the cast of characters are still at it with their dishonest information (no need to waste any time on them).
For those that care, the last Census was in 2020 (there are estimates for 2021)
San Francisco population 2010 805,235
San Francisco population 2020 873,965
The estimate for 2021 is 815, 201
Both numbers of course are higher than 2010
Other nearby areas:
San Jose population 2010 945,942
San Jose population 2020 1,013,240
San Mateo population 2010 97,207
San Mateo population 2020 105,661
The combined population estimates for all three areas for 2010 is 1,848,384
The combined population estimates for all three areas for 2020 is 1,992,866
Even the combined estimates for 2021 are higher than 2010 at 1,900,890
The Bay Area population estimates were already listed in a previous post.
At some point, perhaps there will be an honest conversation and the fake 'exodus' nothing burger posts will cease. Admittedly I doubt it as people seem to want to continue with their disingenuous arguments with the main purpose to disparage.
Obviously no one should waste their time taking any of their arguments as gospel because most are dishonest and it's very easy to check the actual numbers.
If any of them truly wanted to help, rather than post their disingenuous information, they could actually work to find a solution on how to reduce population in the Bay Area and the state which simply don't seem to ever drop by any significant numbers. It would also be helpful to figure out a way to stop all these businesses from coming in since the standard conservative talking point claiming business are running for the hills because of all the taxes appears to be hogwash since it's not stopping anyone from coming in. Most people don't give a damn about outflows only. That has no impact on traffic, infrastructure, housing prices, etc. if they're merely being replaced. California will always have more outflows because they have significantly more people (it's simply a dumb argument and not breaking news as this has been going on for decades). Most people understand this.
Last edited by blameyourself; 11-22-2022 at 08:35 PM..
I see the cast of characters are still at it with their dishonest information (no need to waste any time on them).
For those that care, the last Census was in 2020 (there are estimates for 2021)
San Francisco population 2010 805,235
San Francisco population 2020 873,965
The estimate for 2021 is 815, 201
Both numbers of course are higher than 2010
Other nearby areas:
San Jose population 2010 945,942
San Jose population 2020 1,013,240
San Mateo population 2010 97,207
San Mateo population 2020 105,661
The combined population estimates for all three areas for 2010 is 1,848,384
The combined population estimates for all three areas for 2020 is 1,992,866
Even the combined estimates for 2021 are higher than 2010 at 1,900,890
The Bay Area population estimates were already listed in a previous post.
At some point, perhaps there will be an honest conversation and the fake 'exodus' nothing burger posts will cease. Admittedly I doubt it as people seem to want to continue with their disingenuous arguments with the main purpose to disparage.
Obviously no one should waste their time taking any of their arguments as gospel because most are dishonest and it's very easy to check the actual numbers.
If any of them truly wanted to help, rather than post their disingenuous information, they could actually work to find a solution on how to reduce population in the Bay Area and the state which simply don't seem to ever drop by any significant numbers. It would also be helpful to figure out a way to stop all these businesses from coming in since the standard conservative talking point claiming business are running for the hills because of all the taxes appears to be hogwash since it's not stopping anyone from coming in. Most people don't give a damn about outflows only. That has no impact on traffic, infrastructure, housing prices, etc. if they're merely being replaced. California will always have more outflows because they have significantly more people (it's simply a dumb argument and not breaking news as this has been going on for decades). Most people understand this.
So you agree it's births and international immigration driving population growth in CA correct?
I see the cast of characters are still at it with their dishonest information (no need to waste any time on them).
For those that care, the last Census was in 2020 (there are estimates for 2021)
San Francisco population 2010 805,235
San Francisco population 2020 873,965
The estimate for 2021 is 815, 201
Both numbers of course are higher than 2010
Other nearby areas:
San Jose population 2010 945,942
San Jose population 2020 1,013,240
San Mateo population 2010 97,207
San Mateo population 2020 105,661
The combined population estimates for all three areas for 2010 is 1,848,384
The combined population estimates for all three areas for 2020 is 1,992,866
Even the combined estimates for 2021 are higher than 2010 at 1,900,890
The Bay Area population estimates were already listed in a previous post.
At some point, perhaps there will be an honest conversation and the fake 'exodus' nothing burger posts will cease. Admittedly I doubt it as people seem to want to continue with their disingenuous arguments with the main purpose to disparage.
Obviously no one should waste their time taking any of their arguments as gospel because most are dishonest and it's very easy to check the actual numbers.
If any of them truly wanted to help, rather than post their disingenuous information, they could actually work to find a solution on how to reduce population in the Bay Area and the state which simply don't seem to ever drop by any significant numbers. It would also be helpful to figure out a way to stop all these businesses from coming in since the standard conservative talking point claiming business are running for the hills because of all the taxes appears to be hogwash since it's not stopping anyone from coming in. Most people don't give a damn about outflows only. That has no impact on traffic, infrastructure, housing prices, etc. if they're merely being replaced. California will always have more outflows because they have significantly more people (it's simply a dumb argument and not breaking news as this has been going on for decades). Most people understand this.
You are really cherry picking numbers here by including only the city limits of SF and SJ and then just one suburban county in San Mateo County. Why not just use the entire MSA or CSA? I understand why you are calling the census data I posted "dishonest" and thats because it blows up your entire argument.
I see the cast of characters are still at it with their dishonest information (no need to waste any time on them).
For those that care, the last Census was in 2020 (there are estimates for 2021)
San Francisco population 2010 805,235
San Francisco population 2020 873,965
The estimate for 2021 is 815, 201
Both numbers of course are higher than 2010
Other nearby areas:
San Jose population 2010 945,942
San Jose population 2020 1,013,240
San Mateo population 2010 97,207
San Mateo population 2020 105,661
The combined population estimates for all three areas for 2010 is 1,848,384
The combined population estimates for all three areas for 2020 is 1,992,866
Even the combined estimates for 2021 are higher than 2010 at 1,900,890
The Bay Area population estimates were already listed in a previous post.
At some point, perhaps there will be an honest conversation and the fake 'exodus' nothing burger posts will cease. Admittedly I doubt it as people seem to want to continue with their disingenuous arguments with the main purpose to disparage.
Obviously no one should waste their time taking any of their arguments as gospel because most are dishonest and it's very easy to check the actual numbers.
If any of them truly wanted to help, rather than post their disingenuous information, they could actually work to find a solution on how to reduce population in the Bay Area and the state which simply don't seem to ever drop by any significant numbers. It would also be helpful to figure out a way to stop all these businesses from coming in since the standard conservative talking point claiming business are running for the hills because of all the taxes appears to be hogwash since it's not stopping anyone from coming in. Most people don't give a damn about outflows only. That has no impact on traffic, infrastructure, housing prices, etc. if they're merely being replaced. California will always have more outflows because they have significantly more people (it's simply a dumb argument and not breaking news as this has been going on for decades). Most people understand this.
This is far lower than other faster growing cities like Seattle, Raleigh or Austin. Is the Bay Area going to turn to Detroit? Not likely. But it's hardly a rapidly growing up and coming metropolis either.
The fact that CA actually lost congressional districts is pretty significant. The population is still growing overall albeit more slowly than other cities and states.
Because it's so darn expensive to live here it means a lot of people simply leave when they want to have families too. It's part of the reason the median age is well below the US median. Young people move to CA to work in Hollywood or tech and bail by middle age.
This is far lower than other faster growing cities like Seattle, Raleigh or Austin. Is the Bay Area going to turn to Detroit? Not likely. But it's hardly a rapidly growing up and coming metropolis either.
The fact that CA actually lost congressional districts is pretty significant. The population is still growing overall albeit more slowly than other cities and states.
Because it's so darn expensive to live here it means a lot of people simply leave when they want to have families too. It's part of the reason the median age is well below the US median. Young people move to CA to work in Hollywood or tech and bail by middle age.
Any significant reduction of population would be a welcome relief to the residents of CA (neither CA or the Bay Area need to grow at this point). Unfortunately that simply hasn't happened. And of course, the number 1 reason people leave the Bay Area and CA is the COL. And yet those that leave are simply replaced so the status quo remains.
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