The truth about Bay Area real estate appreciation

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by dandylion84

Houses sell for $1000 per square foot in Belmont. I'd hate to think what you consider expensive if you think that's cheap.

Just because they cost that much doesn't mean it's not much much cheaper to build a house for that

[TheGreatCurve]

Modular prefab homes are assembled on permanent foundations just like regular stick-built home are so they meet all the same building and zoning requirements and ordinances of most cities as regular stick-built homes. They can be less expensive than custom stick-built homes but not always. And as with regular homes, you have to own the land it's built on.

Modular prefab homes are NOT mobile or "manufactured" homes.

[ggcd951]

Originally Posted by HockeyMac18

I looked at a piece of land in Belmot recently. It was totally wonderful, had an awesome view, and was right next to a great neighborhood in the hills there. AND it was only $40k.

What was wrong with it, you ask? Well, there was no actual road to the property (it was about 500 feet down a dirt path...which maybe one car could fit down), it is on a hill (so is not easy to build on), and it has no water, electric or sewer running to it (although access points to those are at the end of the dirt path at the main road). Oh, and it's zoned for a minimum 1600 foot square house (meaning one couldn't live on that land unless it was a house of at least that size).

I looked at it since I was playing around with the idea of buying a small piece of land in the region and putting a tiny (or small) house on it. Which I found would be illegal due to zoning. And I'd be required to run sewer, elctric and water out to it...

Basically, I learned that to get a "cheap" piece of land up to livable standards (that are generally required in most municipalities), you're going to be spending hundred of thousands of dollars before even a house is part of the equation. So you're very likely NOT going to come out ahead.

Put another way, this is not a "quick and easy" way to find cheap living in the Bay Area. Those empty lots are cheap for a reason...and there's a reason people aren't snatching them up (because it doesn't really make financial sense).

i am in a noob in terms of land and house building. But putting septic, roads and stuff like that can it be done in DIY (or DIY-es involving several well trained buddies) or any part of it? Does regulation require licensed companies do the work? I am asking because I am huge DYI person, after I bought my condo, except for carpets, i did the whole thing: wall painting (that itself is huge), upholsteries, cabinet painting and it get huge facelift. I spent about 8000$ at most that otherwise could ahve costed 20000$. Now I do know it is a minor job compared to bringing up a parcel of land.

[ggcd951]

Originally Posted by TheGreatCurve

I don't see why insurance would be any different for modular prefab homes. If anything, it should be lower because modular prefab homes are better built and more sturdy and more likely to survive the elements.


"The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) report on building performance during 1992’s Hurricane Andrew noted that modular homes withstood the ravages of that storm’s Category 4 winds of 131–155 mph far better than site-built housing."

"FEMA states these homes “provided an inherently rigid system that performed much better than conventional residential framing.”
Hurricane Resistant Homes on Texas Coast Survive Ike's Worst > Texas Gulf Coast Real Estate > Texas Coast Real Estate News

"A tornado last June has once again proved why systems-built technologies — in this case modular housing — is considered one of the strongest and most resilient types of residential construction."
NAHB on Why Modular Homes Survive Tornado Better Than Stick Homes

These Weschester Modular Homes withstood the high winds of Hurricane Sandy
Many of the homes in these same neighborhoods were damaged or even destroyed by the storm. Westchester is proud that their homes remained standing after Sandy hit"
Hurricane Sandy Testimonials | Hurricane-Safe Modular Homes

will those homes crush if tree falls on it? I came from a country where apartments are always built with bricks (because weather is harsh). People from my country comes to US and say wow all the houses are built with wood. It is not to say here in US dont care about sturdiness, weather allows it build houses with wooden frames. Big-oh moment came when there was a huge wind in seattle and tree came crushing down on the house and split it into two pieces.

[TheGreatCurve]

Originally Posted by ggcd951

will those homes crush if tree falls on it? I came from a country where apartments are always built with bricks (because weather is harsh). People from my country comes to US and say wow all the houses are built with wood. It is not to say here in US dont care about sturdiness, weather allows it build houses with wooden frames. Big-oh moment came when there was a huge wind in seattle and tree came crushing down on the house and split it into two pieces.

You can't build brick houses in earthquake territory like here in California. Brick crumbles and falls apart during earthquakes.

Many of the modular prefab home are built with steel frames so they are stronger than regular stick built wood frame houses.

[sonarrat]

Originally Posted by TheGreatCurve

You can't build brick houses in earthquake territory like here in California. Brick crumbles and falls apart during earthquakes.

Many of the modular prefab home are built with steel frames so they are stronger than regular stick built wood frame houses.

There is a type of construction called reinforced masonry, which has the usual benefits of brick construction but will stay together when shaken by a seismic event. It's expensive though. If it wasn't, all of the new home builders would be slapping together their hovels out of brick too.

[Chuck5000]

Originally Posted by dburbs1975

permabear is not that far off.

cheap lots in Belmont are a joke, they are being sold off by the people who own the lots adjacent and want someone else to pay and bring in the utilities so they can make even more money. Belmont hills is also right next to a large fault and this is a problematic place to build in general, thus the lower prices. There has been severe damage to hillside homes there in the very recent past.

there are mobile homes, then there are many other types of prefab homes that will satisfy the building departments in Mountain View, Los Altos, etc.

Prefab and kit house does not = mobile home.

for those trashing this idea, you need to educate yourself.

many builders use prefab shells (cost about 30-60K for the panels) and just clad them in render, put in some cheap windows, and modern chinese interiors they buy off alibaba. add a couple of Grohe faucets and Kohler sinks and viola, you have a 2million dollar mountain view house.

say it isn't so.

dburbs, first time I've ever disagreed with you. You've got the money. Why not go try this? Try asking a few folks? I could save you some time, though. What's the explanation for why this hasn't happened yet with these parcels?

Originally Posted by ggcd951

i am in a noob in terms of land and house building. But putting septic, roads and stuff like that can it be done in DIY (or DIY-es involving several well trained buddies) or any part of it? Does regulation require licensed companies do the work? I am asking because I am huge DYI person, after I bought my condo, except for carpets, i did the whole thing: wall painting (that itself is huge), upholsteries, cabinet painting and it get huge facelift. I spent about 8000$ at most that otherwise could ahve costed 20000$. Now I do know it is a minor job compared to bringing up a parcel of land.

Licensing is absolutely going to be required for anything like this, where you have to conform to regulations about land use in a sensitive area (hills in this case) . You can try cheating on some of it, but I would not recommend.

Generally, I think you are greatly underestimating the level of work here. You can DIY solo building, say, $300,000 in retaining walls, renting and driving the excavators, dump trucks, backhoes, etc, yourself? This work takes multiple bodies to do.

Again, there are a zillion really handy small people like you, both civilians and contractors, and many super smart high end contractors. These. Properties. Would. Not. Go. Begging. for development if there were not huge and costly obstacles. Obstacles that don't pencil out.

I learned this stuff from my cousin, who is a contractor. I posed this very question to him once. HockeyMac and I are making the same point again and again.

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by Chuck5000

dburbs, first time I've ever disagreed with you. You've got the money. Why not go try this? Try asking a few folks? I could save you some time, though. What's the explanation for why this hasn't happened yet with these parcels?



Licensing is absolutely going to be required for anything like this, where you have to conform to regulations about land use in a sensitive area (hills in this case) . You can try cheating on some of it, but I would not recommend.

Generally, I think you are greatly underestimating the level of work here. You can DIY solo building, say, $300,000 in retaining walls, renting and driving the excavators, dump trucks, backhoes, etc, yourself? This work takes multiple bodies to do.

Again, there are a zillion really handy small people like you, both civilians and contractors, and many super smart high end contractors. These. Properties. Would. Not. Go. Begging. for development if there were not huge and costly obstacles. Obstacles that don't pencil out.

I learned this stuff from my cousin, who is a contractor. I posed this very question to him once. HockeyMac and I are making the same point again and again.

And yet there are 150,000 dollar new houses out there

[sonarrat]

Sure there are, in areas where permitting isn't so expensive and they don't have earthquake code.