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Old 06-21-2010, 07:40 AM
 
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Very interesting information:

A Blistering Ride Through Hell. Key Property Charts to Make Sense of This Week
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Old 06-21-2010, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Punta Gorda and Maryland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dishing the 9411 View Post
That is very interesting, and you can make a number of correlations with the information that you have provided.

After reviewing the information, I would point out that it is all national information, and thus you can't equate it to the local SWFL market - in any direct way.

The reason I say that is because over the past few years, the inventory has been selling at a much faster rate than the national average in SWFL, and as the inventory dwindles the demand, and housing prices will rise. There is still a huge inventory, but it has been selling off at a pretty decent rate for over three years now. A lot of the information that SoFLGal has provided over the years indicating the absorbsion rate demonstrated that. Remember the national charts show huge failures in places like Michigan, and other areas in the North East where people have migrated to Southern States in movement that also has cost a large migration of wealth, as well.

The mortage failure rate, is going to continue to allow housing prices in SWFL to remain low for a few more years, and it would be interesting to see what the actual information shows - as it relates to the local market. I think you may be surprised that with the number of delinquencies, and foreclosures that commenced early on starting in 2006 that with the infusion of so many new relatively strong buyers that the delinquency rate in SWFL may be improving (( in a curve dramatically different than the national survey shows)).

But, and probably the biggest thing that will have a negative impact (if one is looking for it) is what will happen when interest rates rise (a fact that is sure to happen) - then housing prices will surely fall.

Another factor that the charts do not indicate or address (if one is looking for a negative impact) is all the tax loop holes that are going to expire at the end of the year, and other new taxes that are going to go into effect next year. They will surely impact spending, and hurt all financial and equity markets.

The later two points will have an impact when they happen. The other charts do not correspond to the actual trends in the housing market over all for Sarasota County. SWFL has been improving better than the curve (in some areas - Sarasota County more so than say Lee County), and the expediency may help them dramatically in the future. Certainly there is much more to be done, but of many areas around the state and the country that could be analyzed, Sarasota has been heading in the right direction faster than most. I expect that there will be more peaks and valleys before anyone can claim success. But so far so good!
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Old 06-21-2010, 05:10 PM
 
172 posts, read 442,194 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big House View Post

After reviewing the information, I would point out that it is all national information, and thus you can't equate it to the local SWFL market - in any direct way.
I disagree; I think there is a lot to be learned from the national picture. Sarasota is still in the USA. Most of the data does pertain locally, and, actually, the picture is far worse in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona than in the other 46... Maybe Michigan too. Anyhow, I don’t think the goal should be to return to the bubble prices. This is just unrealistic as the bubble prices were the aberration. The 100 year case shiller index, and the 40 year mortgage rate chart clears up any ambiguities in that regard.
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Old 06-21-2010, 05:23 PM
 
Location: Punta Gorda and Maryland
6,103 posts, read 13,813,610 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dishing the 9411 View Post
I disagree; I think there is a lot to be learned from the national picture. Sarasota is still in the USA. Most of the data does pertain locally, and, actually, the picture is far worse in Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona than in the other 46... Maybe Michigan too. Anyhow, I don’t think the goal should be to return to the bubble prices. This is just unrealistic as the bubble prices were the aberration. The 100 year case shiller index, and the 40 year mortgage rate chart clears up any ambiguities in that regard.

You think the national picture and Sarasota's market is exactly the same! Hmmmm?!?

You think that Sarasota has not been selling off its inventory faster than the nations surplus of 4 + million homes . . . Hmmmm?!?

Ok, I can agree to disagree, because I don't think that is the case, although the charts can be modified to reflect the Sarasota area, they really don't mirror it. I can agree that there is a long way to go, and do think information provided is good for discussion.
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Old 06-21-2010, 05:33 PM
 
16,001 posts, read 33,939,180 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Big House View Post
You think the national picture and Sarasota's market is exactly the same! Hmmmm?!?

You think that Sarasota has not been selling off its inventory faster than the nations surplus of 4 + million homes . . . Hmmmm?!?

Ok, I can agree to disagree, because I don't think that is the case, although the charts can be modified to reflect the Sarasota area, they really don't mirror it. I can agree that there is a long way to go, and do think information provided is good for discussion.
I agree with Big House.
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Old 06-21-2010, 06:38 PM
 
32,697 posts, read 51,390,307 times
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of course YOU disagree Dishing the 9411--it is going against your mantra--

one thing you did not stick in your charts is that the Obama plan to get people realigned with mortgage financing so they could keep their homes vs be foreclosed is not working
probably it is not working because the people who are falling out probably NEVER should have been in that house at all and probably not in any home--because their income/living sitaution is just not sufficient to handle a home mortgage--because property ownership is more than a mortgage payment...

the fact that I keep coming up with that no one seems to have mentioned or tied to the housing problem is that homes in some areas were overprice--and there was collusion between builders and mortgage financing agencies to inflate the price of land and homes well beyond their true value so that the developers and mortgage guys would make a killing--
I get that--it happened in some markets worse than others--but a small % of every city had something like this going on---
not disagreeing that some housing areas are still probably overpriced--but remember it is what the market will bear---
if you make people put enough money down so that they are risking THEIR money--then let them--
in China where they are talking about a housing bubble you have to have 50% of the home price as downpayment
and in some South American countries like Argentina you have to pay cash--period--for a house...

my point is that it is not that house/real estate/apt rentals are so high but that wages are so LOW---
for years and years--companies have deflated salaries and raises for the average workers--
the minimum wage was set at the same point for almost a decade I think
people just did not get good raises even when companies were making mega profits
the money went to the stockholders in dividends to raise stock prices, went to the CEO and top admins and to the board of directors, went some to new technology and development, expansion in other ways...
but when the money was THERE, working people did not get 10-12% raises a year--they got 4% or 6% if it was a good year...
working salaries have been kept down in an attempt to keep inflation down--
just stupid to me
Alan Greenspan and his bald-headed IQ and all the other big thinkers just had it totally wrong
pay the working population a good wage, a great wage--and they will just turn around and put it back into the economy...
by keeping salaries so low, they pushed people into HAVING to take equity out of their home's value for things like college education, medical expenses, and yes--nice vacations--
but people should not have to do that--
they should have been paid so that they could work hard, live well, and still have money to save...

my theory is IF companies had been willing to do that then we would all be better off now...
weird I know
but when you think about the old formula of using 1/3 of your salary for home ownership mortgage or 3 times salary for home purchase--
then it makes more sense because people would have HAD more money to afford those more expensive homes...
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Old 06-22-2010, 06:36 AM
 
172 posts, read 442,194 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read View Post
of course YOU disagree Dishing the 9411--it is going against your mantra--

My only mantra is Om Mani Padme Hum. I say it most days. Anyhow, I am just here to provide some useful information about the instability of local real estate; the market is still overvalued. You can take it for what its worth. Best Wishes!
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Old 06-22-2010, 07:11 AM
 
32,697 posts, read 51,390,307 times
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and you might be right--but for some people renting is not an option
and they can't wait until who knows when (unless you have a more specific date in mind) for the market to become "fairly valued"...
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Old 06-22-2010, 09:39 AM
 
Location: Punta Gorda and Maryland
6,103 posts, read 13,813,610 times
Reputation: 1240
Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read View Post
and you might be right--but for some people renting is not an option
and they can't wait until who knows when (unless you have a more specific date in mind) for the market to become "fairly valued"...

To support what I've been saying about wealthy people moving to Texas and Florida, I got Forbes magazine to follow up on my declaration, with this article that the weathy want to be in SWFL Florida. How bout a beer!?

America

The more new people buying into florida is really going to stabilze the economy, and strengthen the tax base, and the stronger financial position of the residents will create jobs, increase tax revenues because the residents can meet their financial obligations, and all of this will help to turn things around.

There may be some ups and downs yet to come, but the trend is clear, and this movement will continue. I think that this fall the pace will pick up considerably - it makes economic sense for those that can afford to make the move. It isn't just Americans either, these real estate deals make too much sense. It isn't propelling another housing boom, it is just recognizing that the houses now are selling below cost, and the wealthy that can afford it see it and are taking advantage of it. A lot of deals right now, and for the past couple of years have been done by cash buyers. These are people that are in much better finacial position than many of the people that have lost thier homes, been foreclosed on, or have been trapped in the short sale abis, because of the bad decisions the government and financial institutions have caused.

Again, I think the local economy is improving at a rate much faster than the nation as a whole. I also think that the oil crisis, is going to be a negative impact, but it is eventually going to be cleaned up, and things will normalize. BP and the government will hire army's of workers to make it right again, and putting those people to work, will help, and those jobs will probably last years. I expect the beaches will be policed pretty well, I just hope that SWFL will be spared and the loop current continues to pull the oil away from SWFL - so far so good, and its been 60+ days.
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Old 06-22-2010, 02:17 PM
 
172 posts, read 442,194 times
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Robert Shiller coined the term "irrational exuberance". He has a new book with George Akerlof and its a pretty good read.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/19/bo...hitelle-t.html
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