It's real estate bottomed out and rebounding in this area of Florida? (Sarasota: to rent, condominiums) - Sarasota - Bradenton - Venice area - (FL) -Manatee and Sarasota Counties - Page 13 - City-Data Forum

bbronston · 05-19-2012, 09:55 AM

I'm not ignoring anything. To be frank, I think your observations are right but, IMHO, you are overthinking it way too much. Based on your type of decision making, there probably has never been a good time to buy a home. If you don't want to buy a home, that's OK. But, real estate markets are local and largely dependent on local activity for their ups and downs, much more so than what is going on in Europe. I'm not denying your observations but I am saying you have one life and you might as well live it as best you can as long as you do so reasonably and responsibly. And, that is exactly what is happening in our local market. So, while you allow yourself "paralysis by analysis", other people are moving forward with their lives. Life doesn't come with a guarantee.

gypsychic · 05-19-2012, 10:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbronston

I'm not ignoring anything. To be frank, I think your observations are right but, IMHO, you are overthinking it way too much. Based on your type of decision making, there probably has never been a good time to buy a home. If you don't want to buy a home, that's OK. But, real estate markets are local and largely dependent on local activity for their ups and downs, much more so than what is going on in Europe. I'm not denying your observations but I am saying you have one life and you might as well live it as best you can as long as you do so reasonably and responsibly. And, that is exactly what is happening in our local market. So, while you allow yourself "paralysis by analysis", other people are moving forward with their lives. Life doesn't come with a guarantee.

You said what I wanted to say, but didn't know how to say it. Thank you, and I 100% agree.

d4g4m · 05-19-2012, 01:26 PM

I am seeing listings that have asking prices that are way above the market value. I think the seller/agent are asking for what is owed on the mortgage without it being a 'short' sale. Some are more than $30-$50 thousand more than the actual value for the house, for the community and other comparables for sale.

bbronston · 05-19-2012, 02:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by d4g4m

I am seeing listings that have asking prices that are way above the market value. I think the seller/agent are asking for what is owed on the mortgage without it being a 'short' sale. Some are more than $30-$50 thousand more than the actual value for the house, for the community and other comparables for sale.

For what price range? On a $100K house, that would be obviously way off but on a $1M property, not so much.

RetiredBuckeye · 05-19-2012, 04:19 PM

I talked to a local realtor last week and she told me there is still lots of shadow inventory out there but for whatever reason it isn't being released. Could this be because this is an election year?

bbronston · 05-19-2012, 05:29 PM

Probably not. We have been hearing about the shadow inventory for years now as some looming disaster that will descend upon the market and drive us back into recession or depression. It hasn't happened and everything I've read on the subject indicates that the banks don't have the desire or the capacity to dump huge numbers of properties on the market at once.

downthrust · 05-20-2012, 08:57 AM

Your prior comment about never the right time to buy I fully understand why you say this. I'm just trying to deploy my long saved cash into the market at the right time. Back in 2005 when I bought my home in the north east, all you heard from the news, realtors, etc. was buy buy buy because real estate was so hot and never going to drop. Boy was I foolish to listen to that junk, I bought, now I'm massively under water.
I am doing MUCH more research this time around as to try and avoid those mistakes.

Now regarding the banks and the shadow inventory.. What a banker friend of mine told me is that the banks do not have to count the houses with unpaid loans on their books. They get to mark these houses at a much higher value until they are actually sold. Once sold as reo, then the bank must show the loss.

The banks balance sheets are completely toast if they had to mark all these default loans correctly. So by the banks holding back they are able to use crazy accounting schemes to make their books look much better then they really are.

Now there is coming a wave of more reo homes to hit the market. They have to because more and more NEW bad loans keep coming in. People are STILL defaulting on their homes for the FIRST time.. the longer the job market stays weak, the more and more people that ever into delinquency for the first time.

The scary part of this now is that the new delinquent folks are mainly holding conventional 30 year fixed mortgages.. Whereas back in 2008 most the defaulters had sub prime mortgages. So the new defaulters are actually folks who got into homes with proper income, now lost their jobs or are working lower paying jobs, all the while inflation eats away their disposable income they have per month. So they have to decide what bills to pay first... Car loans, credit cards, mortgage? Must are putting mortgage last on the list...when historically mortgage was always put first... So it's a completely new way of the American household budget priorities..
People are keeping their credit cards because they need the credit access to buy food, clothing, essentials... They need a car to get them places.. Their homes they figure they can live in for free for 2 years, and uncle Sam will be there with principal reductions eventually... So now it's become a moral hazard which is spreading to many folks who would have never defaulted prior on their homes. I know of many folks who CAN afford their mortgages whom are now "throwing in the towel" because they feel the banks/ government won't help them unless they stop paying their mortgage.
THAT FACT is what troubles me the most when looking at a housing recovery scenario.

you are correct that markets are very local.. But once inflation (hyper inflation) hits us.. It will affect all of us, anyone that hold usa currency.

Stayed tuned over the next 2 weeks for another federal reserve money printing program.. Operation twist (qe3) ends in early June.. I am expecting a MASSIVE Fed and ECB announcement of more money printing very shortly! New printed money = higher prices for food, gasoline.. And lower value for those bucks you have in the bank.

Quote:

Originally Posted by bbronston

Probably not. We have been hearing about the shadow inventory for years now as some looming disaster that will descend upon the market and drive us back into recession or depression. It hasn't happened and everything I've read on the subject indicates that the banks don't have the desire or the capacity to dump huge numbers of properties on the market at once.

yellowsky · 05-20-2012, 10:36 AM

Downthrust: Now that you have explained your situation with the mortgage on your house up North being underwater I understand your skepticism about buying into a market that still may have further to drop.
However, I do agree with Bronston that too much can be made from too much information. The local facts on the ground seem to indicate a vastly changed market from two years ago, or even twelve months.
I wish you luck with your search.

bbronston · 05-20-2012, 11:45 AM

WARNING: PERSONAL PHILOSOPHY COMING YOUR WAY...
downthrust, I completely understand your position and I don't disagree with any of it. We cannot change what life will throw at us. We can only live it as best we can and hope for the future. That is the way life has always been for every generation and, compared to all the generations that have preceded us, we have it pretty good no matter how you look at it. No one is questioning your decision to wait. But you seem to be trying to justify your thinking to yourself by convincing others that the sky is falling. Maybe it will...who knows? I'm not going to waste my life waiting for the first chunk to hit me when I could have been outside enjoying the fresh air and I don't recommend it for others. In the end, we have to live and die with our decisions but they need to be ours and ours alone. Otherwise we can never have peace.

One more thing, suppose you don't pull the trigger and everything falls apart as you expect it may. At that point, the money you have in your account will probably be worth a fraction of what it is now. Have you really gained anything? I know you've lost the time you could have had in a nice home and, at age 57, I can confirm that you don't get lost time back! Just a different point of view...

Texabama · 05-20-2012, 12:50 PM

The shadow inventory will not be a flood hitting the market. The Robo-signing days are over.

As far as N.E. area boomers not able to unload their houses, well, many have been living in the same home for a long period of time (i.e. paid off), I'm sure many will price to move. Also, many live in large metro areas where the economy is doing better than the national average.