It's real estate bottomed out and rebounding in this area of Florida? (Sarasota: middle-class, short sale)

[WantPalmerRanch]

Originally Posted by downthrust

what you mention about the 'utility' bills is certainly something I definately agree on. Up here in NJ, my house is a 2,400 square foot (heating/cooling area) bi-level. I pay roughly $300 per month for propane (heat, hot water, cooking), then another $250 per month in electricity (for computers, hot-tub, etc.). This past winter we got off REALLY easy, only 2 snow storms.. last winter was TERRIBLE though. I'm afraid that like you mentioned WHEN.. (not IF) the war with Iran/Isreal/USA starts, that OIL will SKYROCKET, and the costs of gas to heat my home are going to be INSANE!!! as it is right now, just the automobile gas to drive 1 hour each way to work stinks!!!

what interests me is the number of people from NJ/NY/CT that you guys currently living in SW FL are seeing moving down there. You mention there were a lot of people that moved from up here to Florida after 911.. well how has this trend been the last few years? do you see MORE northerns heading down south or is it sort of the same as it has always been?

I also worry about the huge loss of 'financial services' jobs up here in the NYC, and surrounding NJ areas. Where are these folks going to work? these folks make A LOT of money and that money is now not going to be pumped into our housing market up here.. will they move down south to Florida/Texas for. 1.) lower living expenses, and 2.) no state income tax ? I would 'imagine' that yes this may happen, but I really am only guessing on that right now.

From NJ/NY/CT definitely more than 2 years ago. As you've probably heard Canadians are the largest foreign buyer group and are increasing percentage-wise in the past few years -snapping up good deals.

Arizona/Florida looks to be top spots for retired warm weather lovers. Although the freak Arizona 10+ inch snowstorm and being generally cooler could be a game changer and in the interim divert more investors to Florida.

[Texabama]

I am currently working a contract assignment in the northeast at a large facility - co-workers of all age groups. Almost 1/2 of all the folks over 50 are talking about selling out and moving to either Florida, Arizona, or N.C. Same goes for neighbors, extended families and friends, etc.
Some say they'll make the move in a year or two - while most talk about 3-5 year time frame.
I'm sure for some of them, it's just talk - or a dream never to be realized. But for many, they have details plans/timeline in place.
This, of course, is the boomers I'm referring to - the big bulge generation.

And it's usually the same reasons for migrating south; hate winters, energy costs, high taxes, empty nest, aches and pains - need warmth, go fishing all year for retirement, etc.

I personally, would not buy up north for reasons stated here in my post, but Florida will rebound almost to 2005 levels, IMHO. Especially along the coastal beach areas.

[downthrust]

Originally Posted by Texabama

I am currently working a contract assignment in the northeast at a large facility - co-workers of all age groups. Almost 1/2 of all the folks over 50 are talking about selling out and moving to either Florida, Arizona, or N.C. Same goes for neighbors, extended families and friends, etc.
Some say they'll make the move in a year or two - while most talk about 3-5 year time frame.
I'm sure for some of them, it's just talk - or a dream never to be realized. But for many, they have details plans/timeline in place.
This, of course, is the boomers I'm referring to - the big bulge generation.

And it's usually the same reasons for migrating south; hate winters, energy costs, high taxes, empty nest, aches and pains - need warmth, go fishing all year for retirement, etc.

I personally, would not buy up north for reasons stated here in my post, but Florida will rebound almost to 2005 levels, IMHO. Especially along the coastal beach areas.

Do you feel that real estate in Florida has bottomed?
For decades Florida was always filled with northeast retirees/snow birds... Do you feel today in this economy there is even more families moving down there? Younger people moving to Florida?

[bbronston]

I'm just jumping in to make a quick point that always seems to get lost by the media and even by local real estate boards. All real estate markets are micro-markets. You can generalize, of course, about broader areas but when you are talking about real estate, you can literally have one street where prices are climbing and one a few blocks away where they are not. In fact, you can see instances where one condo is climbing and another in the same vicinity is not. The only market that matters to a consumer of a residential home is the micro-market that relates directly to that property. The rest is just fodder for chat and speculation....IMHO.

[downthrust]

Remember.. Looking forward.. Next 3-10 years... Read this article very closely.. Then read the comments by regular folks even closer... Many points are hard to refute.. How is this good for housing?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-...cline#comments

[WantPalmerRanch]

DT,

Next 3-10 years many, many baby boomers will be looking for warm climate homes near the beaches.

Sarasota is a top city amongst retiring baby boomers plans.

According to Penske Truck Rental these were the top destinations for the past few years:

1. Atlanta
2. Phoenix
3. Orlando, Fla.
4. Dallas/Fort Worth
5. Chicago
6. Houston
7. Denver
8. Seattle
9. Sarasota, Fla.
10. Charlotte, N.C.

Sarasota is by far the smallest city, coupled with the fact that many baby boomers want to retire to Sarasota, coupled with the fact our beaches are second to none in the US, coupled with the fact that residences near the beaches are in limited quantity - Sarasota being such a small city should fill up quickly especially near the beaches.

Just as waterfront property is scarce and expensive in Sarasota, beach area communities could be next in line.

You should do fine in the area you're looking too.

[downthrust]

ahhh... very good point... BUT you are missing the fact that 'how easy will it be for baby boomers to buy houses?" versus just rent and/or by small condos? I was talking more about 'single family housing' prices not condos/etc.

Originally Posted by WantPalmerRanch

DT,

Next 3-10 years many, many baby boomers will be looking for warm climate homes near the beaches.

Sarasota is a top city amongst retiring baby boomers plans.

According to Penske Truck Rental these were the top destinations for the past few years:

1. Atlanta
2. Phoenix
3. Orlando, Fla.
4. Dallas/Fort Worth
5. Chicago
6. Houston
7. Denver
8. Seattle
9. Sarasota, Fla.
10. Charlotte, N.C.

Sarasota is by far the smallest city, coupled with the fact that many baby boomers want to retire to Sarasota, coupled with the fact our beaches are second to none in the US, coupled with the fact that residences near the beaches are in limited quantity - Sarasota being such a small city should fill up quickly especially near the beaches.

Just as waterfront property is scarce and expensive in Sarasota, beach area communities could be next in line.

You should do fine in the area you're looking too.

[WantPalmerRanch]

Believe it or not, there are many, many more wealthy baby boomers than there are beach area single family homes that they want.

We'd think your way in about 20 years.

[downthrust]

I tend to disagree with that 100%

wait til you see what 'inflation' is headed our way.. you really think 'fixed income' retirees are going to want to care for a house versus a 'condo'.? I will put my money on the 'baby boomers' DOWNSIZING... not upsizing.. and I would put even more money on them buying CONDOS not single family homes...

THAT'S IF THEY EVEN BUY!! considering the fact that they lost so much money on their existing homes to sell them in order to move down south.. you really think they are going to want to 'buy' a new place and get into another mortgage at retirement age??? I think not!!

remember.. younger folks are NOT in this market today to buy up those 'baby boomers' mcmansions!!! these baby boomers are going to take a HUGE hit on selling their homes... just watch..

Originally Posted by WantPalmerRanch

Believe it or not, there are many, many more wealthy baby boomers than there are beach area single family homes that they want.

We'd think your way in about 20 years.

[WantPalmerRanch]

We know many personally with sizable "fixed income" pensions 401K + Social security equaling over $50K/yr easily.

With many that have "nest eggs" that additional income is more than enough for property taxes and living expenses even in Single Family Homes.

It is many a Grandparents dream to have their children and grandchildren spend quality time with each other in a single family home a couple of times a year than have them stay at a hotel.

We disagree. Especially that this part of Florida is attracting much younger folk now than it did 20 years ago.